all the current talk about how Hillary needs to win this state or needs to win that state is misleading, and i think just an attempt to rally the troops.

even if Obama wins every single state's primary that remains, the proportional margins are not enough to put him over the threshold of pledged delegates needed before the Democratic National Convention.

short of a catastrophic scandal forcing a candidate to drop out, neither Hillary nor Obama are going to go into the convention with enough pledged delegates to win the nomination, no matter how the remaining states turn out.

It will be a "brokered convention". It will come down to rounds of voting by the Superdelegates.... I'd bet a large amount of money on this.

The question therefore, should not be "will Hillary hold the Ohio bluecollar votes" or "will Obama take the Texas Latinos"... The question should be "how much political damage is the inevitable brokered convention going to cause the Democratic Party"

Clinton will not go down without a fight. Especially if she has any sort of a comeback in the remaining states. Pennsylvania and Ohio are big states, and could tilt her way just enough for a "win". Regardless of that, who would even expect her to quit? She's playing by the rules. I'm an Obama supporter, but I don't for one minute think Hillary is going to give up the fight just because she's down a hundred or two pledged delegates, and I don't expect her to.

not to mention, even the pledged delegates are not certain. they can (and have in the past) change their allegiance -- though never to any degree that made any difference. But never has it been this close before except perhaps since Chicago DNC riots of 1968, albeit that was under a different set of rules.

Also, the caucus states are not even done yet. they are multi-tiered processes where the rules allow candidates to forfeit their pledged delegates to the other side due to (technical violations, no shows, changed minds, etc...). Caucus states are still in flux, no matter what CNN or other scorekeepers like to have you think.

so what im wondering is what people think this "brokered convention" is going to be like.

I think it's reasonable to predict Obama will go in with maybe a net 200 delegates more than Clinton -- not enough to win outright. Then it will be up to the 800+ Superdelegates to cast their vote and potentially shift the balance.

As everyone is well aware, the Superdelegates consist of a huge amount of Democratic politicians and party officials, many of them entrenched in the political machinery for quite some time now. One can easily think that Clinton has the decided advantage here.

Not to mention the spectre of the "ghost delegates". Clinton has potential legal recourse to try and claim the invalidated delegates she "won" from Michigan and Florida. There is no legal precedent to prevent her from trying.

what's going to happen then?





[Edited on March 4, 2008 at 1:25 PM. Reason : ]

3/4/2008 1:12:55 PM

The superdelegates aren't going to overturn a 150+ pledged delegate margin, barring some huge event. This thread has fail written all over it.

3/4/2008 1:21:20 PM

you sound very sure of yourself. i think you seriously underestimate the political power of the Clintons. and you're dismissing all of my points out of hand, without a single bit of rationale

how sad





[Edited on March 4, 2008 at 1:27 PM. Reason : ]

3/4/2008 1:23:44 PM

obama will take it by technical knockout in the fifth round

3/4/2008 1:39:08 PM

The wife and I had this exact conversation a few weeks ago.

We reached the conclusion that the DNC will be highly entertaining this year.

If both candidates stay in, the parallels between this year's DNC and the 2000 Presidential campaign would be hilarious.

[Edited on March 4, 2008 at 1:49 PM. Reason : ]

3/4/2008 1:45:10 PM

I dont see how Obama will lose the nomination if he takes the lead going into it. I also dont think it will go to the convention. Tonight might be the last of hillary.

3/4/2008 1:45:19 PM

I doubt she'd concede if she lost both Ohio and Texas 60/40. People just don't give up their birthrights that easily.

3/4/2008 1:55:22 PM

GWB had the birthright.

Hillary has marital rights.

3/4/2008 2:26:56 PM

i give her about a 25% chance of dropping out after today's results.

3/4/2008 2:30:20 PM

if she concedes after tonight's results, i'll eat my 1998 Commemorative Lewinski Cigar.

no, but seriously... you really think she'd give up the Presidency of the United States. to be forever ensconced in history books as the FIRST woman US president??

Hillary Clinton does many things. one thing she doesnt do is give up.

this is going to come down to the wire.

I'm sayin theres a 100% chance we're going to a brokered convention.

and 25% that she's going to file a lawsuit to get the MI and FL "ghost" delegates.







[Edited on March 4, 2008 at 2:38 PM. Reason : ]

3/4/2008 2:35:28 PM

was Obama's name even on those ballots?

[Edited on March 4, 2008 at 2:44 PM. Reason : ]

3/4/2008 2:43:56 PM

He was on one, but not the other.

3/4/2008 2:46:26 PM

he and Edwards were on FL ballot but not MI. Obama and Edwards agreed to not campaign in either state.

I dont know if Hillary campaigned in either place.

Funny thing is, Hillary was the only one on MI ballot, yet she still only won 50%... "undecided" got most of the rest.





[Edited on March 4, 2008 at 2:53 PM. Reason : ]

3/4/2008 2:52:19 PM

man FUCK Hillary Clinton

3/4/2008 2:55:51 PM

i'd think about it. can i have the 1992 version?

3/4/2008 2:57:18 PM

Quote :

"The wife and I had this exact conversation a few weeks ago. We reached the conclusion that the DNC will be highly entertaining this year. If both candidates stay in, the parallels between this year's DNC and the 2000 Presidential campaign would be hilarious."

The contrarian in me is starting to think this might not be such a bad thing for the Democrats.

-The next few months of this country's political discourse will be Obama and Clinton. McCain will be on the sidelines.
-McCain won't have one candidate he'll have to bash, he'd have to split resources. And will instead have 2 candidates bashing him.
-Since the last time this happened in this country was 28 years ago, the country will be enthralled by such political drama, and will make sure to watch, meaning more people will listen to Obama's and Clinton's campaign messages at the convention. Not a bad thing for campaign marketers.

The only downside is bitterness from the loser's supporters and if it'll manifest itself into "I don't want them to win."

Here's a WaPo writer talking about these types of conventions from yesteryear, particularly the 1924 Democratic Convention. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/03/AR2008030303277.html?hpid=artslot

[Edited on March 4, 2008 at 3:07 PM. Reason : /]

3/4/2008 3:00:56 PM

Quote :

"I dont know if Hillary campaigned in either place. Funny thing is, Hillary was the only one on MI ballot, yet she still only won 50%... "undecided" got most of the rest. "

She did campaign in both.

Clinton wanted the primaries front-loaded to make her appear inevitable nominee and just use momentum on her side. That obviously backfired.

Howard Dean and the DNC wanted to keep the traditional setup of Iowa-New Hampshire-South Carolina with Nevada thrown in. They said anyone intruding would lose all delegates. Michigan and Florida called the DNC's bluff, and the DNC followed through on their punishment. None of the Democrats wanted to make the Iowa and New Hampshire voters mad, except Clinton who figured it would be offset by doing better in the bigger states.

To be fair, the RNC had the same issues. They just took away half the delegates to all states before a certain date.

What happened on the Michigan ballot was the Obama and Edwards campaigns told their voters to vote "uncommitted". In Florida, Obama was on the ballot but did not actively campaign in the state.

3/4/2008 4:12:31 PM

Obama has a snow balls chance in hell in the General to win Fl....McCain + Cubans = WIN! I hope Obama has some other states in mind to make up for Florida....also, the census really messed up the DEMS, took electoral college votes from there traditional states and put them in GOP states. If it was Gore 2000 all over again, Florida would not of matered because he would of needed more delegates then Florida offered.

3/4/2008 6:18:14 PM

are they going to count hanging chads at the DNC?

3/4/2008 6:24:58 PM

rumor from my sources inside the Democratic camp say they expect it to go to the convention, even after tonight.

3/4/2008 8:35:49 PM

YOUVE GOT A MOLE ON TEH INSIDE!!!!!1



no, seriously... anyone just look at the numbers. look at the current count look at the number of delegates left to be had. look at the number needed to win. look at the percentage distribution so far across all states.

it doesnt matter who gets what in the next few weeks, neither will get enough.

why would either of them drop out?

its gonna get crazy




[Edited on March 4, 2008 at 8:52 PM. Reason : ]

3/4/2008 8:36:48 PM

Quote :

"no, seriously... anyone just look at the numbers. look at the current count look at the number of delegates left to be had. look at the number needed to win. look at the percentage distribution so far across all states. it doesnt matter who gets what in the next few weeks, neither will get enough. why would either of them drop out? its gonna get crazy"

And it'll all come here in 2 months!

3/4/2008 9:05:48 PM

Quote :

"YOUVE GOT A MOLE ON TEH INSIDE!!!!!1"

3/4/2008 9:12:15 PM

Shit just got real.


If Obama enjoys a double-digit lead in the delegate count but Hillary has the momentum and the Clinton machine behind her, it could get very ugly in the DNC. They might have to settle this one by drawing straws, since it's quite obvious that backdoor deals among the superdelegates (read: career politicians) will determine the nominee.

3/5/2008 2:31:14 AM

Quote :

"As everyone is well aware, the Superdelegates consist of a huge amount of Democratic politicians and party officials, many of them entrenched in the political machinery for quite some time now. One can easily think that Clinton has the decided advantage here. "

yep. it might not be enough to overturn a solid Obama advantage, but all other things being equal or very close to it...

i generally agree with what you're saying, joeschmoe, except that while neither candidate can win outright (and this has been apparent for what, a month?), there is a big difference between going to the convention with a 50 delegate split and going to the convention seperated by 500 delegates, so fighting for delegates still matters.

Quote :

"I dont see how Obama will lose the nomination if he takes the lead going into it. I also dont think it will go to the convention. Tonight might be the last of hillary. "

dude

even if Obama had swept today's primaries, how would it NOT go to the convention unless Clinton dropped out (which I don't think is particularly likely)

3/5/2008 2:41:06 AM

i think if obama had done better tonight, there would have been a big swell of superdelegate endorsements. i don't think that's going to happen now.

i don't think it will get to the convention, but i think it will get to NC or later.

[Edited on March 5, 2008 at 2:43 AM. Reason : if]

3/5/2008 2:43:12 AM

the only way it doesn't go to the convention is if one of them quits.

that is not my opinion

that is simple mathematics

3/5/2008 2:44:24 AM

i agree. i think at some point enough superdelegates will come out and pledge to one candidate or another, and then the other candidate will quit.

3/5/2008 2:45:39 AM

^^No shit.

The idea is that the majority of the superdelegates will likely vote based on the will of the people, and if Obama has a triple-digit lead in pledged delegates nearing the convention, Hillary will quit under pressure from the party to avoid the kind of embarrassing episode envisioned in this thread.

[Edited on March 5, 2008 at 2:49 AM. Reason : 2]

3/5/2008 2:47:43 AM

it could happen, but the writing would have to be on the wall, and it would probably have to be in in ALL CAPS.

there's a lot that has to happen between now and such a scenario playing out.

3/5/2008 2:56:11 AM

well at least i'll get to participate in a presidential primary that actually might matter. some silver lining.

3/5/2008 3:02:34 AM

Quote :

"The idea is that the majority of the superdelegates will likely vote based on the will of the people, and if Obama has a triple-digit lead in pledged delegates nearing the convention, Hillary will quit under pressure from the party to avoid the kind of embarrassing episode envisioned in this thread."

worth quoting

I think a majority of superdelegates will come out in favor of the Obama if he is still carrying a substantial lead in pledged delegates. This will likely happen well before the convention. In fact, had Obama had a better night last night I think you would see a tidal wave of superdelegates pledging for him today.

3/5/2008 9:53:16 AM

Due to this, and barring a ticket of hillary/obama, McCain will be the next President of the United States.

3/5/2008 10:29:48 AM

After last night's wins, I bet Bill Clinton is dreaming up that bus of interns pulling up to the White House...

3/5/2008 10:32:54 AM

Hillary's smearing and fear-mongering is giving votes to McCain in the general election - Howard Dean must have her KILLED.

How many times is she going to say "Both I and John McCain have a life of experience to bring to the White House, Barack Obama only has 1 speech" before the comittee sends the hit out??? It's obvious she can't win on delegates, she's just fucking everything up for the party.

Fucking stupid bitch

3/5/2008 10:37:27 AM

it's 1968 all over again

3/5/2008 11:43:22 AM

I encourage you to bring your best taser-proof clothing to Denver this August. This could be a doozy...

[Edited on March 5, 2008 at 12:10 PM. Reason : ...]

3/5/2008 12:07:01 PM

I'm expecting some sort of deal to be done which causes the "loser" of the two to end up as the running mate. By loser, I mean the one that is losing in the delegate count. Dean and other higher ups in the Democratic Party will try to coerce the loser to accept being Vice President for the sake of the party. It wouldn't surprise me that Dean and the higher ups also has some sort of plan to totally railroad the loser if he/she fails to comply.

They know that a brokered convention will hurt the party's chances of getting back the white house, and they'll avoid it at all costs.

That said, Obama could use Edwards' endorsement right about now.

I'm also disappointed that everyone focused on every state other than North Carolina last night when it came to delegate votes. We must really not matter.

3/5/2008 1:21:29 PM

well, we're already squarely on obama's side if polls are to be trusted. (and the triangle apparently has the third largest obama group in the country, so it's no big surprise he would do well here)

3/5/2008 1:37:58 PM

NC is the second biggest state left, but doesn't vote until after Pennsylvania. Obviously the media will focus on the next votes, and the next big state.

3/5/2008 2:08:12 PM

Quote :

"TheDuke866 i generally agree with what you're saying, joeschmoe, except ... there is a big difference between going to the convention with a 50 delegate split and going to the convention seperated by 500 delegates, so fighting for delegates still matters."

of course fighting for delegates matter. i wasnt suggesting that it doesnt.

but the math showed before even last night, before 2 weeks ago, that barring some last-minute scandal or seismic public shift, theres not going to be a 500 delegate split.

it will be closer to a 100 (pledged) delegate split. 200, tops.

thats why (i think) its gonna be bloody. at least metaphorically.

3/5/2008 2:09:50 PM

Quote :

"Not to mention the spectre of the "ghost delegates". Clinton has potential legal recourse to try and claim the invalidated delegates she "won" from Michigan and Florida. There is no legal precedent to prevent her from trying."

this ghost delegate thing is bullshit

you cant change the rules after the game has already started...michigan and florida better not count for either candidate

3/5/2008 2:13:58 PM

pretty sure everyone realized last night that anything other than clinton/obama wont win

3/5/2008 2:16:41 PM

Quote :

"you cant change the rules after the game has already started"

These are democrats remember. THey tried it before, why not again?

Terp, sounds like you had a bad night.

3/5/2008 2:16:49 PM

if you're trying to suggest that it was the democrats who were busy changing the rules in 2000, thats a clever bit of historical revisionism.

3/5/2008 2:24:05 PM

yeah, it was republicans wanting to vote again in florida and complaining they voted for the wrong man.

3/5/2008 2:29:22 PM

^^ They sure tried to, as ^ stated.

3/5/2008 2:32:16 PM

sorry, the issue wasn't about the placement of Buchanan's name on the goofy butterfly ballots, regardless of the media circus entertainment for our nations ill-informed.

but like our good eye doctor, apparently you also can only see in terms of black and white.

3/5/2008 2:36:00 PM

Obama clearly has a "popular vote" advantage over Hillary. If he goes in there a single pledged delegate ahead, there is little chance Hillary can win.

Consider the alternative. She's already seen as the "insider". We'll finish the convention with the less popular candidate, who got it by wheeling and dealing. A powerful candidate for the general election? I don't think so, sounds more like suicide by the democratic party.

3/5/2008 2:36:59 PM

im going to vote for hillary in the nc primary just because that way mccain will win the general election

3/5/2008 2:38:09 PM