I have not read anything that would indicate a problem with supply.

I do not understand what could have happened to increase demand sharply. I mean 8 years ago gas was 300% cheaper. WTF happened to make it triple in price over the last 8 years?

3/11/2008 3:16:37 PM

China and India started wanting cars

3/11/2008 3:19:49 PM

Read an article about how OPEC is actually starting to function like a cartel. Can't remember where. Probably MSNBC.

3/11/2008 3:23:07 PM

we have a lot of our troops in their neighborhood

[Edited on March 11, 2008 at 3:24 PM. Reason : and ^^]

3/11/2008 3:24:02 PM

Rampant speculation and a nervous market.

3/11/2008 3:26:05 PM

New cars selling for $2500 in India.

3/11/2008 3:30:37 PM

The decline of the dollar isnt helping

3/11/2008 3:31:05 PM

Oil is on the dollar.
The value of the dollar is rapidly falling.
Of course the price of oil will go up.

3/11/2008 3:31:20 PM

Quote :

"Analysts believe oil's underlying supply and demand fundamentals do not support such high prices, and argue that crude's rise in recent months is mostly due to the falling dollar. Crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the dollar is weak"

Supports some of the responses thus far.

3/11/2008 3:32:24 PM

the dollar is so weak opec is thinking of starting to use the euro

3/11/2008 3:33:09 PM

India and China drinking our milkshake.

3/11/2008 3:34:40 PM

damn them, when will get get back to .98 a gallon.......................never

3/11/2008 3:48:50 PM

There appears to be disagreement over the amount of supply. But it's not a stretch at all to say that OPEC is concerned about OPEC--not the United States.

OPEC won't boost oil output
CRUDE PRICE SOARS TO RECORD $104 AS INVENTORIES DROP

Quote :

"White House spokesman Dana Perino said Wednesday that Bush was 'disappointed' OPEC didn't do more to rein in prices, which some say are pushing the U.S. economy into recession. Analyst John Hall, of John Hall Associates in London, said OPEC probably should have added oil to the market as Bush had asked. 'But in this time of intense geopolitical tension, it would be difficult for Saudi (Arabia) or any other producer to acquiesce simply because President Bush had asked them to,' he said. 'In the short term, any true respite for the consumer is still out of reach.'"

Quote :

"Hall said OPEC was partly to blame for economic woes in the United States and elsewhere. 'By helping the price to rise, they have fueled inflation and they're fueling recession,' he said. But Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork Report, which keeps tabs on global energy markets and trends, said the cartel may not have had much choice. 'If you're OPEC, you see ample supplies and questionable demand,' he said."

http://www.mercurynews.com/nationworld/ci_8472586

3/11/2008 3:59:20 PM

Thats why we need to drill in our own damn country and off our coasts, screw the damn environmentalists. Im all for another power source, but until then we need to ditch OPEC

3/11/2008 4:02:20 PM

we dont really have that much of it from what i was told....we'd rather use up someone elses stuff before our own....i was told even alaska only has a 6 month world supply

3/11/2008 4:03:50 PM

shale oil, we are sitting on tons of it

3/11/2008 4:08:41 PM

yes, lets rip up half the country like a mining company to get oil shale

the market is fully speculating oil futures, pulling money out of real estate and stocks into commodities

there is nothing supporting these prices from a supply point

3/11/2008 4:25:16 PM

the value of the dollar



/thread

3/11/2008 4:27:17 PM

Arctic Ocean Oil Rush (ARCOIL)
This proposition will pay out at POP$100 per share if oil from a rig in the Lomonosov Ridge, the Beaufort Sea or the Chuckchi Sea is produced and packaged for export by January 1, 2010.

Quote :

"Oil crises come and go, but there's nothing like a good untapped reserve to complicate matters. Right now, much of the world has its eye on the seabed beneath the Arctic Ocean. With an estimated 25 percent of the Earth's reserves lying below rapidly melting ice, the Arctic Ocean is increasingly being referred to as the next Saudi Arabia. Although it may be decades before the entire ocean is completely ice-free for months at a time, countries with a vested interest have been staking their claim in ways ranging from planned military bases (Canada) to seabed floor flags (Russia). To be sure, difficulties are inherent in installing rigs on ice beds, but with vast reserves in a nearly politically neutral area, it's only a matter of time before the rush for black gold begins. This proposition will pay out at POP$100 per share if undersea drilling for oil or gas in the previously frozen Arctic Circle begins before January 1, 2010."

http://ppx.popsci.com/security/view.php?symbol=ARCOIL

3/11/2008 4:28:07 PM

well look at it this way, in England the price of gas = about $8 a gallon

3/11/2008 4:30:00 PM

i wonder what it was before the dollar fell like a mf

3/11/2008 4:47:11 PM

http://www.thewolfweb.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=482004

3/11/2008 5:15:27 PM

peak oil is a myth

thread/

3/11/2008 7:03:19 PM

People have gotten it into their head that owning oil futures is similar to owning IBM stock. It is not. They are buying up futures that institutional users, namely refineries, need. As people throw oil into their sock drawers it is artificially hiding supply and driving up prices.

If this theory is right, then it means eventually people will realize oil futures do not pay dividends and when the price drops it will turn into a price collapse.

Regretfully, this fails to take into account oil conservation efforts. Instead of meeting the extra demand from speculators with extra oil, OPEC is allowing prices to rise, forcing consumers to restrict actual consumption in the name of speculation. Consumers cannot respond as fast as OPEC, so this means it will take far longer for the bust to hit. But, more importantly, it also means the short term reward of speculation is very high, which will ecourage ever more speculation right until the day of the crash.

So, while OPECs behavior does delay the crash for several years, it is immensely amplifying the size of the eventual crash.

3/11/2008 7:33:13 PM

USA is circling the drain



uh oh

3/12/2008 11:21:33 AM

The falling dollar wouldn't account for 104$ barrel of oil.

If that were the case, none of you would be able to afford anything as inflation would be running at near 100%.

3/12/2008 1:00:33 PM

1) Moody's jitters over the US' AAA credit rating;
2) Efforts by OPEC to decouple oil from the dollar;
3) Commodity speculation overall;
4) Worldwide demand;
5) Lack of investor confidence in alternatives;
6) Recession speculation.

Big storm.

Buy a bike.

3/13/2008 9:21:04 PM

To be more blunt, oil is now $110 a barrel in a world with plenty of oil for the same reason gold is $1000 an ounce in a world with plenty of gold: the greater fool theory. Prices have gone up a lot for awhile and bull mania has set in. Everyone is buying in with the intention of making a quick profit and selling, before the market collapses, to someone else trying to do the same thing. It is only a matter of time before the correction arrives and someone will be left holding the bag.

Four of gamecats six points explain the falling dollar, which has fallen a trade-weighted 30%, not high oil prices, which have gone up 340%.

BTW, this news is relevant: Tulip Mania appears to have once again struck the Dutch

Quote :

"Over here in the Netherlands, court proceedings are starting this week on the "biggest speculation fraud ever in the Netherlands", according to a national newspaper that ran a big story about it today. Investors have lost tens of millions of euros in what turned out to be a big pyramid scheme. Now for the ultimate irony. Any idea what these people were investing in? Tulip bulbs. Really."

The only english article I know of: http://www.nl12.nl/nl12.nl/Tulip%20Gold/TulipGoldNPstory.html

3/13/2008 10:14:17 PM

Did I mention Venezuela cut off the US?

[Edited on March 13, 2008 at 11:35 PM. Reason : who are the stewards of our economy...]

3/13/2008 11:35:24 PM

speculative investors in oil commodities mostly

the actual cost of a gallon of petrol has very little direct cost to the trade price per barrel of oil

3/17/2008 9:05:25 AM

i call it "the war tax"

maybe that's why i'm so mad

and not taking it anymore

3/17/2008 10:43:43 PM