Conservative Democrat Travis Childers last night defeated Republican candidate Greg Davis 54-46 in a runoff special election for the 1st Mississippi district, after just missing the 50% threshold in the original April 22 election.

This is a district in northeastern Mississippi that Bush won by 62-37 in 2004, and was previously represented by Roger Wicker, the Republican nominated to fill the rest of Trent Lott's Senate term after Lott resigned.

It's the third special election to fill vacancies this Congress that the Democrats have taken a seat from the Republicans. The others being the 14th Illinois (Dennis Hastert's old district that went to Bill Foster) and the 6th Louisiana (from Republican Richard Baker to Democrat Don Cazayoux). The makeup of the House is now 236-199.

Omens for November? Could the Republicans retain the White House and still suffer losses in Congress?

5/14/2008 9:10:05 AM

Quote :

"Could the Republicans retain the White House and still suffer losses in Congress?"

highly unlikely

5/14/2008 10:39:38 AM

^ Which part? To be honest, I think a split decision by the electorate is becoming more likely the more I think about it.

Anyway, House Republicans aren't happy.

Quote :

"Lot's of very glum faces among House GOP members this morning as they emerged from their weekly closed-door session. The political situation is not good, and they aren't even trying to deny it. Rep. Tom Davis stomped on the concrete floor of the Capitol basement when asked by reporters about Republican fortunes at the moment. "This is the floor," he said, by way of explanation. "We're below the floor." Inside the meeting, Davis had just presented his colleagues with what he said was a 20-page memo outlining his prescription for a way out of this mess. He did not offer details to the press, yet did not spare the party and the president scathing criticism in his public comments. "The president swallows the microphone every time he opens his mouth," Davis said. He believes Bush's staunch opposition to the Democratic housing bill and the SCHIP bill, for example, is hurting rank and file. Look at yesterday's vote on the SPRO, where Republicans defied the president in droves. Lo and behold, the White House says today that it will not veto the bill. Today is also the day when the House takes up the farm bill, which the president has promised to veto. It’s expected that this will become the second veto of Bush's administration to be overridden -- though the farm bill has more of a parochial dynamic than the national political one. Asked if he thought there should be a change in House GOP leadership, he brought up the 2006 election and the loss of Congress, then wondered aloud why, when "the plane is being flown into the mountain," there has been no change in direction. A major target of internal GOP criticism is Rep. Tom Cole, who runs the House campaign arm of the party. He emerged to tell reporters that there is "concern" within the party, yes, but, looking for a silver lining, he pointed out that John McCain is running far ahead of the generic GOP approval rating. He then spoke of the need to "re-brand" the party in the likeness of McCain, which may be a tall order, since many rank-and-file conservatives have reviled McCain for years for his transgressions against party orthodoxy. The parlance of marketing has, of course, overrun the business of politics (and news media), and here again Cole spoke of the unpopularity of the GOP "brand." He says, as does House GOP No. 2 Roy Blunt, that the Democratic candidate yesterday in Mississippi, Travis Childers, is pro life and pro gun. "Both candidates ran for what Republicans are for," Blunt pointed out. That leaves open the question of why the Democrat won the race. The "brand" is the most common explanation. House GOP leaders huddle at 11 a.m. today. That will be watched closely for any possibility of a coup or insurrection against leadership in the wake of this third consecutive loss of a GOP seat. "

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/14/1019748.aspx

5/14/2008 12:14:01 PM

http://online.wsj.com/article/declarations.html

pretty good analysis by one of Reagan's speechwriters

5/16/2008 3:04:54 PM

Look at the three Democrats who won this seats... If they had no politcal affiliation, you would never associate them wither someone like Obama. While I think the Republicans are probably screwed, trying to indicate these elections are a sign of things to come could be misleading. Not to mention they were at a very odd time, and the Democrats have been highly active because of the primary battle.

I don't see Obama, winning in these districts (except perhaps Illinois).

5/16/2008 3:15:53 PM

^^not really that great imo...pretty much "matter of fact" to me

5/17/2008 4:55:36 AM

Quote :

"Conservative Democrat Travis Childers"

Too bad these dont run for higher office.

5/17/2008 9:20:41 AM

The GOP deserves the mess it is in. They've blown it on almost every front. The biggest being the war in Iraq. As Noonan wrote in her article, Americans don't like long protracted wars. Our attention span is too short.

Conservatives need to teach conservatism, explain its benefits, apply its principles to everyday life. The last two republican presidents have been terrible communicators- fumbling through boring speeches.

If the GOP keeps trying to compete with democrats on which party can be more big-gov't liberal, they will continue to lose.

Here's what needs to be done: The loss in '08 looks inevitable. So use the defeat to your benefit. Let's give Americans a 4 year sample of what liberals will do to the country if they win the presidency and get a filibuster-proof congress. An Obama presidency will be more feckless than Jimmy Carter's- while the democrat congress will raise taxes and create more gov't spending bloat.

Meanwhile the republicans should be getting rid of everyone who reminds the country of Bush or Hastert, or Delay. New, young conservatives need to come into play. No one gets into a leadership position without proving they can communicate effectively about the benefits of conservatism.

I doubt the east-coast dominated leadership will let go of the reigns of the GOP. Perhaps it will take a fight for the libertarian wing to wrestle control away.

5/17/2008 10:56:31 AM

^

Spot on as usual.

I am seriously considering voting for Bob Barr this time around.

5/17/2008 6:10:02 PM

what happens if obama gets elected and everyone loves him and the world is the shit?

5/17/2008 7:49:42 PM

Then it's obvious that Bush's policies were good and it just took a little while for them to sink in.

5/17/2008 7:59:43 PM

in that case hopefully all 8 years would be good and then when a repub wins we will get attacked and go to war again

5/17/2008 8:32:59 PM

Quote :

"what happens if obama gets elected and everyone loves him and the world is the shit? "

In that case, have someone shake you- so you can wake up.

5/17/2008 11:22:37 PM