was listening to jim rome and heard that if you look at the history of line maker's odds and how often they are right it is beyond astonishing
example: last nights laker vs. spurs line was lakers by 7 1/2 points
with seconds left lakers were up by 5, spurs quit playing and some moron went and took a 3 pointer at the end of regulation and made it and they covered the point spread, wtf

so i wonder how is it that fat lazy vegas punks know more about sports than the rest of us including analysts and sports talk posters

when they get the lines right which is more often than not it is astonishingly precise
how is it possible? here are some possibilities
first consider what gambling is. its a multi multi billion dollar business with huge profits
other multi billion dollar businesses which use think tanks or heavy research like google, microsoft, and other orgs like NASA or defense dep. have at their core vastly superior and secret technology that we will not see for many years if ever

so what is the core of gambling odd makers that makes them so successfull
research and analysis?
advanced computer hardware/software used to analyze probability?
fortune tellers/spiritual seers/ect?

[Edited on May 30, 2008 at 7:49 PM. Reason : .]

5/30/2008 7:26:14 PM

sports almanac?

5/30/2008 7:32:49 PM

^oh snap, i seriously forgot about that

if time travel was possible im sure that someone would come back and start betting, easiest way to make money

5/30/2008 7:41:03 PM

i believe that is the plot to back to the future II.

5/30/2008 7:41:57 PM

^dddurrrrr

5/30/2008 7:43:01 PM

5/30/2008 7:44:10 PM

^thanks for that completely irrelevant picture

5/30/2008 7:45:32 PM

it's almost relevant.



almost.

5/30/2008 7:52:44 PM

Quote :

"how often they are right it is beyond astonishing"

when you add up the difference between the closing line & the final score of the entire laker/spur series, they were off by an average of 8.5 points a game, not exactly a number I would say is beyond astonishing

they were off by an average of 12 points a game in the spurs/hornets series


yes, they're generally closer in the playoffs (larger sample size from which to gather their data & crunch numbers from), as well as due to the fact that when top-tier teams play, the games are by & large closer, meaning that you could throw out 4.5 point line on essentially any playoff game from round 2 on & be pretty close

they're generally closer in their predictions in the east recently as well due to the fact that the east scores less as a whole than the west, meaning that a 5.5 point line in the east is the equivalent of a 7 point line or higher in the west


I just want to see your data that proves how they get the lines right more often than not...Also, what exactly constitutes them getting the line right? Being within a point? Within 2 points? Within a certain % of the line?


I'm not even gonna bother giving the always popular response of "the bettors are the ones who really set the lines"...or the fact that they don't make money by getting the lines right, they get money off the juice, meaning they want 50% of the bettors to take 1 side of the bet & 50% the other side. Vegas doesn't get some kind of a house bonus for getting the line right


I would have assumed you were trolling, but some of your responses in ST leave me thinking that you really do think its magic

5/30/2008 8:52:22 PM

Usually experienced handicappers will come up with the lines and then submit them to a superior who compares the submitted line to what they would recommend. If the lines are off much they enter deeper discussions and further analysis before coming up with a trial line.

They usually have a book of a few heavy bettors who they will call with this trial line. They'll monitor the action they receive and potentially adjust the lines a little before releasing them to the general public.

It's not an exact science or anything its just with 1000's of games to draw from you get the idea of what a "fair" line will be and in the long run the "fair" line is an accurate enough predictor that a decent percentage of games fall around that number.

5/31/2008 2:54:02 PM

It's not like the lines are 100 percent on all the time.

Off the top of my head, for example, what was the OSU/Fla nat'l title line?

[Edited on May 31, 2008 at 2:57 PM. Reason : k]

5/31/2008 2:56:42 PM

Quote :

"if time travel was possible im sure that someone would come back and start betting, easiest way to make money"

or play the lotto... or invest in stocks...

5/31/2008 3:33:03 PM

The key point to remember about odds-making is it's not about trying to figure out the final score, it's trying to make the money bet on each side of a line 50/50, cause the bookie/house is guaranteed to make money when the money bet on each side is 50/50. And for that you have to take into account size of fanbase of each team, the normal amount of money bet on each team, and also a team's history against the spread.

There are of course some times where if the bookmaker thinks the public is bandwagoning and dead wrong on the outcome of a game, they won't adjust the line and just take the big money.

[Edited on May 31, 2008 at 7:26 PM. Reason : /]

5/31/2008 7:23:03 PM

Because they chase rabbits around during the hot Florida summers. Does wonders for agility and quickness.

6/3/2008 12:10:07 PM

barefooted when the fields are on fire

i read that story sometime back, shit was awesome

6/3/2008 12:16:36 PM

lmao at the irrelevant picture

6/3/2008 12:21:00 PM

When you get down to it there are basically 10 guys in a room. The 'leader' says a line and the people raise their hand according to which side they would bet. The line is modified until there are 5 on each side. Now you have a line.

6/3/2008 12:37:47 PM

if I see a staggering lean in the public betting trend i'll bet against them the majority of the time

it seems the bookies know something we don't on those too good to be true lines

6/3/2008 12:38:18 PM