What a shit year. Let's play GM!

Goners:
Hampton, $15m in 08; $20m team option, $6m buyout in 09 to be paid by Colorado
Norton, $1m in 08
Kotsay, $7m in 08 ($5m paid by Oakland)
Glavine, $9m in 08

Probably gone:
Tavarez, ~$0.5m (Minor League contract)
Smoltz, $14 in 08 (09/10 options do not vest, < 200 IP)

Probably back:
Chipper, 09 option vests between $8-$11m

Renteria, probably $6-$7m of $10m paid by Braves in 08

I don't really know if I want Chipper back or not. He had the highest OPS+ of his career this season, but he's 37, is becoming a liability at third, and probably won't ever see 500 PA again. I think it's tough to justify paying him anywhere $10m.

If Chipper is back, that's somewhere in the neighborhood of $50m off the books. If he's gone, that number rises to around $60m--nearly 2/3 of last year's payroll. Without looking over the numbers of players whose salaries will increase, I'd say a 15% increase from last year is a reasonable estimate. That puts us around $50m in base salary. Add to that re-signings, draft bonuses, and minor league contracts and we're looking at maybe $65-$70m in base salary. There's no doubt that we'll be well below this years $100m+ payroll, $80-$90m sounds about right. So that leaves us with somewhere around $15m to spend on free agents.

First though, what we have:

Catcher
McCann is a stud, he's not going anywhere (except maybe first) for a long time. He's played a lot, though, and we have no one to back him up.

First
Kotchman has been a serious disappointment, but Bobby seems to like him, I'm sure he'll ride it out until July.

Second
Johnson came out of his July/August slump nicely. He'll be 27 next season, so it's make or break time.

Third
If it were up to me, Chipper would be gone. He'll be back, though. Maybe Eric Campbell can impress someone in ST and get a shot.

Short
Escobar didn't breakout like most people thought he would, but I still like him a lot. Lillibridge has sucked badly so far, so there isn't much pressure on Escobar to do more. .290/.375/.400 would be nice.

Outfield
I'd like to say that Francoeur's days are numbered, but really he's burned up any trade value he had. I'm guessing that he and Blanco will start in the corners. Either one would be better suited in center, though. Matt Young and a clean Jordan Schafer looked good in Mississippi this year. Willie Cabrera and Gorkys Hernandez (a favorite of mine) are a year or two off. Jason Heyward, the best offensive prospect in the system, is climbing quickly and could get a late season call-up.

So, free agents. There's no reason to make a big splash this year. Lay back, save some cash, and let some prospects develop. A few guys I'd like to target:

* Hank Blalock, has an option that probably won't be picked up. He's 27 and could be had for less than we'd pay Chipper.
* Rocco Baldelli, 26, could be had for ~$4m. If healthy, he could shore up an outfield spot for a year or two while waiting for someone else to develop or hit the market. It's a bit of a gamble with his health, though.

With what we have in the minors, there's no reason to go after any free agent starting pitchers. Wait until we're ready to challenge someone other than the Nats to make a splash. A quality set-up or middle relief guy wouldn't hurt, though.

My opening day 25 man roster:

C McCann
1B Kotchman
2B Johnson
3B Blalock/free agent/piece of shit we get in the Francoeur trade
SS Escobar
LF B. Jones
CF Anderson/Blanco
RF Blanco/Baldelli/free agent

SP Jurrjens
SP Hudson
SP Campillo
SP Reyes (this guy would be gone if he weren't a leftie)
SP Charlie Morton/Tommy Hanson/James Parr

RP Ohman
RP Bennett
RP Acosta
RP Carlyle
RP free agent/piece of shit we get in the Francoeur trade
SU Gonzalez
CL Soriano

BN a catcher who hits .150
BN a corner outfielder who slugs .250
BN a middle infielder who steals three bases

We played 7 games below or Pythagorean expectation of 79 wins (6-12 against the Natspos? Really?). I think breaking 80 next year would have to be looked at as a success. The Phillies are strong, the Mets are holding on, and the Marlins are getting better quickly. It's gonna get worse before it gets better.




RIP Skip

RIP Chip?



Go Bravos

10/21/2008 10:16:04 PM

BN Rafael Beliard

Go Bravos!

10/21/2008 10:50:21 PM

this is why i read this site more than anything else, because people are always willing to do the hard work that i don't want to do, lol

nice analysis though, and you're probably right, next year will blow as well

10/21/2008 10:50:46 PM

yeah i will take another losing season to make a big splash in 2010. some BIG names will be FA that year.

10/21/2008 11:05:59 PM

I'm really hoping the Mets sign Baldelli as their 4th OF. He can't start everyday and we are one of the few teams that can pay a bench guy $3M or so...

FYI, Baldelli will likely never be an everyday guy again with his disorder...

[Edited on October 21, 2008 at 11:11 PM. Reason : x]

10/21/2008 11:10:36 PM

How long is Hudson under contract? I'd say it might be his last season as a Brave, might as well try to get a young arm or two and build for 2010 or 11. But who knows, if they're actually healthy that's still not a bad team.

What do you think happens to Smoltz and Chipper if they don't stay here? Is Smoltz done? I don't want to see them in another uni, and I don't think they want to either. Didn't Chipper take less money just to stay in ATL and help pay for other players?

10/21/2008 11:36:45 PM

wow... your post has so many points, i don't know where to start!

one of the most important things that jumped out at me was you not wanting chipper back. regardless of what he costs, they cannot part ways at this point in time. this franchise is in a downswing right now; should they part ways with him, it will turn even more fans away. i wouldn't say he's "probably back".... he's 110% back.

next, your estimated payroll... i think we'll have about 60 mil committed entering free agency. last year our payroll was just over 102 mil, which is in line with many who think we'll have about 40 mil to spend in FA. there's also talk of liberty bumping up our payroll, maybe as much as 5 mil.

here's a good guess at what we've got if we were to start the season right now:
C: McCann (3.5m); Sammons (400k)
1b: Kotchman (~4m after arby)
2b: Johnson (~2.4m after arby)
3b: Chipper (11m)
SS: Escobar (400k)
IF: Prado (400k); Infante (~3m after arby)
LF: Diaz (~3m after arby)
CF: Anderson (400k)
RF: Frenchy (~2.4m after arby)
OF: Blanco (400k); B.Jones (400k)

SP: Jurjjens (400k); Campillo (400k); Reyes (400k); Morton (400k); Parr (400k)
CL: Soriano (6m); Gonzo (~4.4 after arby)
RP: Boyer (400k); Bennett (400k); Acosta (400k); Carlyle (400k); Ridgway (400k)

we also have hudson (13m), moylan (400k) and james (500k) to consider (all injured). also, i'd non-tender diaz to avoid arby (-3m?). this puts us right at 57 mil, give or take a mil.

players i'd like to see return:
+ Will Ohman (3 mil) - great loogy
+ Smoltz (incentive based deal, say, 5 mil base?) - he's a leader, and could come back healthy. if healthy enough, he could start. if not, he could throw limited innings from the back of the pen

players i'd like to see added:
+ Lowe (may cost 14-15 mil?)
+ Bobby Abreu (13-14 mil?) - another option could be Raul Ibanez, for a tad cheaper.

there's strong rumors blowing around that the Braves are frontrunners to land Jake Peavy via trade (makes 11 mil in 09, salary increases substantially after that through '13). if this fell through, i'd focus on another pitcher, one of Oliver Perez, AJ Burnett, Garland, or there's talk of adding a Japanese pitcher.

Totalling my proposed moves, it would be:
57 mil previously mentioned roster
3 mil Ohman
5 mil Smoltz
15 mil Lowe
13 mil Abreu
11 mil Peavy
= 104 mil. this gives us some room to play around with.

09 Roster:
C: McCann (3.5m); Sammons (400k)
1b: Kotchman (~4m after arby)
2b: Johnson (~2.4m after arby)
3b: Chipper (11m)
SS: Escobar (400k)
IF: Prado (400k); Infante (~3m after arby)
LF: Blanco (400k)
CF: Anderson (400k)
RF: Abreu (13 mil)
OF: Frenchy (~2.4m after arby); B.Jones (400k)

SP: Peavy (11 mil); Lowe (15 mil); Smoltz (5 mil); Jurjjens (400k); Campillo (400k)
CL: Soriano (6m); Gonzo (~4.4 after arby)
RP: Ohman (3 mil); Boyer (400k); Bennett (400k); Carlyle (400k); Morton/Reyes/Acosta (400k)

keep one of Morton/Reyes/Acosta for the final pitcher. I say Morton deserves it more than Reyes (blah); Acosta could be sent back down to AAA, but would be one of the first called back up should we need the help.

i think this team could contend. looking further down the road, smoltz should retire soon, and his salary could be diverted to peavy's contract. hudson should be back late 09/spring training '10 to take smoltz's spot in the rotation. our best prospects are still a couple years away, which gives the vets time to retire or let their contracts expire (chip, abreu).

who would be traded to SD for peavy? i'd be happy if it did not include escobar, heyward, g.hernandez, schafer.... as good as tommy hanson looks, i'd trade a pitching prosect before a hitter, simply because it's "less guaranteed." unfortunately, SD would probably want one of those hitters with hanson, or we could overwhelm them with quantity with guys like freeman, flowers, rohrbough. KJ has also been attached to the rumors. i think we could still do alright without peavy, and instead go after a lesser pitcher as i previously mentioned.

10/21/2008 11:54:53 PM

Quote :

"SP Jurrjens SP Hudson SP Campillo SP Reyes (this guy would be gone if he weren't a leftie) SP Charlie Morton/Tommy Hanson/James Parr "

Isn't Hudson out for the '09 season?

^ as for his post. I hope the Braves do NOT sign guys like Lowe or Abreu. I'd hate to see us end up with an older player at the end of his productive years and sign him to a 3-4 year $10+m contract. That is the shit the Yankees, Orioles, Mariners do that leaves them hurting a few years later.

I'd rather us suck balls in 09, get high draft picks, continue to develop the young players, and focus on a 2-3 year plan than trying to fix everything with a couple of FAs.

The idea of going after Peavy is great though in my mind because he is still young and dominant. Spending cash on him is a no-brainer assuming he'll sign a long term deal. I really hope we don't try to fix this broken-ass team in the off season signing FAs unless it is someone like CC Sabathia (i.e. young, still in their prime). And please stay away from Ben Sheets. We do not need another injury prone SP.

10/22/2008 2:54:13 PM

Quote :

"one of the most important things that jumped out at me was you not wanting chipper back. regardless of what he costs, they cannot part ways at this point in time. this franchise is in a downswing right now; should they part ways with him, it will turn even more fans away. i wouldn't say he's "probably back".... he's 110% back."

The thing is that there's no way you can justify paying him anywhere near $10m at this point in his career. He just isn't producing over the long haul. I love the guy and I'd hate to see him go, but it would make good business sense to free up the cash. I think if would could elsewhere reinvest what we'd spend on him in 2009, the wounds would heal quickly.

Quote :

"next, your estimated payroll... i think we'll have about 60 mil committed entering free agency. last year our payroll was just over 102 mil, which is in line with many who think we'll have about 40 mil to spend in FA. there's also talk of liberty bumping up our payroll, maybe as much as 5 mil."

After actually going through the numbers, I come up with $50.5m committed. I'm probably off somewhere, so it's gonna be between $50-60m. No way does Liberty loosen the purse strings, I don't see us spending more than $90m. Next year should be a year to retool and re-evaluate. I'd estimate the opening day salary to be closer to $85m and would be surprised if it were as low as $80m.

Quote :

"here's a good guess at what we've got if we were to start the season right now:"

I agree with your numbers for the most part. I think we can avoid arbitration with Kotchman and/or Johnson, probably not with Francoeur, though. I still hope he's included in any trade we make this winter. I'd also like to see Prado, Reyes, James, and Boyer gone. Diaz is toast.

As far as Smoltz goes, I haven't heard anything about his recovery in a while. I'm sure he'll make every effort to be ready by the Spring. If anyone can make it back, it's him; I just have a bad feeling that it's finally over.

Signing Lowe and Abreu would be pretty bad moves, in my opinion. We don't need to pick up pieces to make a move in 2009 and we don't need older guys who'll just eat a lot of money. 2010 should be a much deeper free agent market, anyway. We can save cash this year and make our move then.

I'd still like to go after Hank Blalock, though. He's only 27 and could be signed to a 4-5 year deal for $7-8m per.

I hadn't thought much about Peavy and I haven't heard a lot of the rumors about the Braves interest in him. I know we've tried to make a move for him before and we're one of the teams to which he'd accept a trade. I'd be happy paying him $20m a year if he keeps producing. He just signed an extension through 2013, I think.

I also forgot to mention that this is probably Cox's last year. I really hate that he'll probably go out so unceremoniously, but I really we've gotta look at 2010 as the earliest we can contend.

Quote :

"Isn't Hudson out for the '09 season? "

Yeah, durr. He might be back by September, but I doubt it. And to answer the earlier question about his contract, he's due $13m next year and has a $12m option in 2010.

10/22/2008 7:21:03 PM

Van Wieren is retiring.

http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081021&content_id=3634597&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl

10/23/2008 5:56:34 PM

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/oct/23/wren-braves-wont-part-with-top-prospects/?partner=RSS
haha, wow, wren STILL insists on NOT trading our top prospects. he already said he wouldn't be trading them, but at that point in time, peavy wasn't available. i'm glad he is stubborn about this.

if we get peavy and don't have to trade heyward, hanson, or schafer, i will be the happiest man alive!

i think the next best thing we could offer is kelly johnson, gorkys hernandez (who i'd love to keep, reminds me of carl crawford) and a handful of 2nd-tier prospects. wren, probably aware that peavy will only grant a trade to a certain set of teams, knows said teams don't have the pieces to make this trade.

10/23/2008 8:04:44 PM

$13 million for a 35-year old Bobby Abreu ?

I agree with most of Ernie's post, except that I'd be willing to pay Chipper if I were the GM. 128 games of Chipper Jones (his total last year) at the way he was producing is better than 150 games of pretty much anyone else.

I would love to ship Francoeur somewhere (like Poland) and maybe get something in return for him, but I'm not even sure we could get a case of beer at this point. So I'm afraid we're stuck with him.

It's time to give Josh Anderson the starting job somewhere in the OF to see if he can cut it or not. I like Blanco in CF, especially with his price tag. I still think Escobar and Johnson can be very good and good players, respectively.

10/23/2008 10:36:24 PM

I think we should at least keep Franceour and let him start next season. Give him 40-50 games and if he is still sucking, then be gone with him. Next season is a lost season anyway and if you think otherwise, then you are stupid.

Our starting pitching is going to be really bad. Outside of Jurrjens, we may not have anyone who can win 10 games. Hampton will likely be resigned, Morton looked like shit last year, Jo Jo Reyes is shit, Campillo was probably a fluke, no idea who'll be a 5th starter unless we somehow get Peavy. God how bad does the Texieria trade look now. Matt Harrison would be our No. 2 next year.

Speaking of Peavy, the Padres have already made it clear that any trade for him starts with young, good starting pitchers meaning the Braves would have to include Hanson. Wren said Hanson will not be traded (which I agree with) and reiterated that fact yesterday when asked about a trade for Peavy. I have a feeling that Peavy is not coming to the Braves.

10/24/2008 9:03:13 AM

Magglio Ordonez has been speculated to be traded for a while now, since Detroit is likely cutting payroll some (Maggs makes $18 mil in 09, and $15 mil in '10 and '11). The Braves make ALOT of sense as a likely destination. Maggs hits RH and plays corner OF. Makes TOO much sense. If Detroit wants to dump salary, then a subsequent trading partner wouldn't have to give up too much to acquire him.

A lineup with Maggs and a rotation with Peavy would be a strong team.



I also read that highly touted Japanese pitcher Junichi Tazawa should be available this offseason. the Nippon league recently held its amateur draft, and all teams heeded Tazawa's request to not be drafted. Tazawa has said he wants to skip Nippon and go straight to MLB, but it's an unwritten rule for MLB to not "steal away" young Japanese players... we'll see what happens with this, but I've seen the Braves attached to his name, among others. I'd guess it would take a nice bonus (several mil?) plus maybe a ML deal to sign the guy, but in a couple or three years he could be very worth it.

10/31/2008 2:20:24 PM

if they're really trying to rebuild next season, then what possible reason would they have for bringing in mags?

10/31/2008 5:41:14 PM

Alan Embree is available. LOL

10/31/2008 7:42:04 PM

^^this team is not rebuilding. wren will be making a full blown effort to bring in impact players this offeseason.

10/31/2008 11:53:00 PM

i'm hearing whispers of a peavy deal getting done soon.

escobar, schafer, morton, locke
for
peavy

not a bad deal for either side.

i saw someone's comment on another message board regarding a braves/brewers rumor involving cory hart.

also, wren has talked to stl about ludwick and ankiel, but they would want either escobar or KJ, and wren has said he would not trade both of his starting MI.

braves also made a multiyear ML contract offer to Tazawa, with a signing bonus over 6 mil

just some stuff to chew on.

11/6/2008 6:44:55 PM

if we do that, we better be making a commitment to peavy for the long term... that is giving up some of our best prospects....
if peavy is just a one of two year player for us, we better not do that!

11/8/2008 11:01:54 AM

He's already under contract through 2013

11/8/2008 1:22:39 PM

Good news. Peavy will pitch against the Mets 6 times and the Phillies 2, at most. Yay for Cox hating the Mets and changing his rotation around every series.

11/8/2008 2:11:11 PM

Quote :

"He's already under contract through 2013"

ok, then if they take that trade, i am on board with it... pitching is top priority

11/8/2008 9:07:42 PM

aren't the braves interested in getting furcal back? that would make including escobar in that deal reasonable.

11/8/2008 11:00:02 PM

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2008/nov/06/padres-peavy-throws-curveball/?padres

Apparently Peavy doesn't want to play on a shit team in that division... I kid, but he is worried about a shitty shortstop, though if Furcal is signed this is moot.

Quote :

"Peavy doesn't need anyone to tell him the World Series champion Phillies and big-spending Mets are in Atlanta's division. "

11/14/2008 3:46:49 PM

that article is 8 days old. axelrod has already come out and said that his comments were taken out of context. what he meant was purely hypothetical: "what if the trading team is too weakened during the trade?" was a better way to put it, but he said if escobar is traded, they could still approve it. it had nothing to do with esco specifically.


but, as it turns out, SD isn't getting any offer it likes enough. i bet KT holds onto peavy for a while. and if wren is smart, he walks away. he can't make decisions on whether or not SD might have a change of heart. by then, who knows who will be off the market, namely other pitching, but if SD still wants esco, the worthwhile SS may be off the board as well.

i honestly don't care if we don't get peavy. it's certainly exciting, but we weren't the ones who started this mess. they came to us because peavy only had a very short list of teams. we keep our prospects and escobar. fine with me.

[Edited on November 14, 2008 at 5:40 PM. Reason : ]

11/14/2008 5:37:26 PM

Either Wren is fed up with Towers or this is some major posturing on his part.

http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/11/braves_no_longer_actively_purs.html

11/14/2008 5:41:29 PM

hooray for mediocrity (hell, mediocrity would be an improvement)

11/14/2008 7:53:53 PM

Sources: Hampton, Astros agree to deal

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3737502

good riddance...

12/1/2008 4:40:16 PM

WTG Astros! I guess a little gamble couldn't hurt. Knowing how players that leave the Braves seem to play the next year, I wouldn't be surprised if he won 15+ games next year.

12/1/2008 6:39:58 PM

OH REALLY

12/1/2008 6:46:24 PM

Braves will finish below the Nationals next year. That doesn't necessarily mean last, but that's still pretty bad.

12/1/2008 8:38:15 PM

Braves close to acquiring SP Javier Vazquez from the White Sox.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3740201

12/2/2008 6:32:01 PM

Yes!

Was worried Minaya was going to overpay for him.

^^ huh? Surely, the Phils, Mets and Marlins wouldn't finish last.. Did the Padres or Royals move to the NL East without me knowing?

[Edited on December 2, 2008 at 6:35 PM. Reason : x]

12/2/2008 6:34:17 PM

I obviously meant players that did not play that well when they were with the Braves. Not AJ.

12/2/2008 10:21:06 PM

^^I think the Marlins have a good chance of collapsing and finishing last. If not, then the Braves could very well be in the celler with the way Washington has committed to bringing in and maintaining young talent.

12/3/2008 3:32:13 AM

Quote :

"Braves close to acquiring SP Javier Vazquez from the White Sox."

I think it is the GMs personal goal to see how many mediocre players he can acquire each year... Nothing gets me excited for this season like signing a 32 year old pitcher whom had a damn near 5 era, a 12-16 record, whose career is obviously on the decline, and a former manager that says he is a choke in big games... lucky for him, we wont have many big games this year!

12/3/2008 9:05:06 AM

thank you so much for taking Javi off our hands!

so much potential, so little results

12/3/2008 9:26:20 AM

what the hell.. i thought the braves were supposed to get Jermaine Dye too.. what happened with that?

12/3/2008 8:36:06 PM

Fire Wren?

12/3/2008 10:15:14 PM

I think there are basically two reasons Wren went after Vasquez.

1. The guy can still go out and throw 200+ innings. The Braves need that next year because other than possibly Jurrjens, they have no one who will pitch 5+ innings consistently.

2. Wren fully expects to add an ace in either Burnett or Peavy and this makes Vasquez the #3 or possibly #4 in the rotation and gives the Braves rotation some depth.

I still personally would not have made this move although all he gave up was Jo Jo Reyes and Lillibridge (sp?) and another minor leaguer. I was not excited about any of those players, but I have never really cared for Vasquez either.

I am still in favor of the Braves punting the next season or so, keeping payroll low, accumulating draft picks, and then adding some FAs to build around the young players that emerge in 2009 and 2010.

Regardless if the Braves get Burnett or Peavy, they'll be 3rd place at best next year in the East because the offense is still weak with no true power hitters, the defense is sketchy with holes everywhere, and the bullpen still sucks.




[Edited on December 3, 2008 at 10:30 PM. Reason : sdf]

12/3/2008 10:27:53 PM

Francoeur for Zack Greinke?

12/9/2008 6:00:04 PM

if this was MVP 05 that would be a good trade

12/9/2008 6:19:35 PM

Tentative deal reached with Furcal. Probably something like 4 years, $40 million.

I guess I'm ok with this, I always liked Furcal, and he gives us the leadoff hitter we've been missing. That said, I'd still love to keep Escobar, the only scenario in which I'd want to see them trade Escobar is to get Peavy in return. Short of getting Peavy, I'd like to see them keep Escobar and move him to second, maybe move Kelly Johnson back to the outfield where he's more comfortable...

12/16/2008 10:40:51 AM

they've mentioned trading kelly and using furcal at 2nd

12/16/2008 10:42:49 AM

Quote :

"if this was MVP 05 that would be a good trade"

lol, three steps to a dynasty:

1) Trade for Wily Mo Pena
2) Trade for Oliver Perez
3) Sign Jake Peavy as FA after year 1...

[Edited on December 16, 2008 at 11:48 AM. Reason : I'm so going to buy this game for my laptop...]

12/16/2008 11:48:31 AM

this isnt the 90s

BRAVES SUCK

12/16/2008 1:18:07 PM

sick burn

12/16/2008 1:43:10 PM

Huh, what happened with Furcal? I swear he signed with the Braves like 2 days ago...

12/17/2008 10:03:05 PM

I thought so too but must have been a verbal agreement or something. Guess he changed his mind.

12/17/2008 10:08:05 PM

^haha, yeah, no kidding. I just saw this shit on the bottom line and was like "What the fuck?"

12/17/2008 10:08:34 PM