Now here is a scenario which may not be on the top of everyone's minds but is apparently becoming more and more of a possibility. From pg. 36 of the 2008 Joint Operating Environment report by US Joint Forces Command:

Quote :

"In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico... The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2008/JOE2008.pdf

I'm not sure how many of you have been keeping track of what's going on along the border, but the situation in Mexico is rapidly deteriorating. Open assassinations of politicians, journalists, and police is rampant while corruption has brought down even top law enforcement officials in the country. The border is becoming more violent as American Border Patrol agents and other law enforcement are being assaulted more and more frequently in cross-border attacks. Violence is so bad you have Mexican police chiefs applying for asylum in the United States.

I suppose we could have yet another thread going back and forth about the consequences of the drug war and the pros and cons of legalization, but since I don't see the legalization of cocaine products coming in the near future, I would like to pose a different question. What kind of consequences would have for the United States, and what options does the United States have? Think of possible, realistic scenarios and how they might play out.

1/16/2009 2:25:32 AM

We should offer Texas back to them as a peace offering, that way we can be left out of it.

It also saves us on hundreds of miles of fencing.

1/16/2009 2:33:49 AM

That's one of the proposals of the Obama Administration, right after President Bush retires there. He figures it will finally get the uber liberals off of his back.

I don't think it will work though. They just can't let 2000 go.

1/16/2009 6:22:12 AM

It's really sad that our drug policy is basically ruining that country. Ah well, I guess it's more important that we make sure 14 year olds can't get weed (they can anyway).

1/16/2009 7:10:44 AM

^
Exactly. Our "war on drugs" has ravaged that country.
However, what's really sad is the number of ignorant americans that still actually support drug prohibition.

1/16/2009 7:40:00 AM

Anytime the US declares war on something that isn't another country you can pretty much count on defeat or at least a lack of a victory...the war on drugs and war on terror amongst others.

1/16/2009 7:47:38 AM

may i be the first to say that a collapse of mexico wouldn't exactly be "sudden"

1/16/2009 8:01:39 AM

honestly, if it collapsed, Im sure American politicians would just use the situation to accelerate that security and prosperity partnership with Mexico and Canada. As it is Im suprised they haven't come on TV and told how Mexico is on the brink of collapse and if it does, it could be catastrophic, its too big to fail. We need to act now and form a North American Union with a new government structure to compete in the 21st century.

1/16/2009 8:11:44 AM

BUT MEXICO IS TOO BIG TO FAIL!

1/16/2009 8:34:58 AM

Do I smell a 700 billion taco bailout?!?

1/16/2009 9:09:22 AM

smells delicious

1/16/2009 9:36:52 AM

just take all the soldiers from Iraq and post them up on the boarder in Hummers.

done.

1/16/2009 9:53:00 AM

Quote :

"It's really sad that our drug policy is basically ruining that country. Ah well, I guess it's more important that we make sure 14 year olds can't get weed (they can anyway)."

are you serious with this statement? really?

1/16/2009 10:04:18 AM

yes serious, moron ^

Our drug policies create a huge profit margin for these gangs and drug barons to manufacturer and smuggles various illegal substances within the US.

Without the artificially inflated prices due to our current heavy enforcement of drug policies the power of these groups would be significantly less.

USA #1

[Edited on January 16, 2009 at 10:33 AM. Reason : a]

1/16/2009 10:32:42 AM

^Yup, those cartels in Mexico basically have more resources than the Mexican gov...that makes it damn near impossible to take them down....Hell, columbians are now manufacturing 3 million dollar buck subs to smuggle cocaine into the US...and after they make the shipment, they just sink the subs.

I'm not necessarily saying all out legalization is the answer, but they only way to make progress is to devalue the goods somehow (and the demand is obviously not going down).

1/16/2009 10:48:48 AM

especially with hard times coming.

1/16/2009 10:51:24 AM

i don't even argue for legalization

it can be illegal without spending billions on the war on drugs, having an gov't agency just to harrass drug users, and allocating police to fight drugs who would otherwise be stopping real criminals.

1/16/2009 10:52:44 AM

Quote :

"yes serious, moron ^ Our drug policies create a huge profit margin for these gangs and drug barons to manufacturer and smuggles various illegal substances within the US. Without the artificially inflated prices due to our current heavy enforcement of drug policies the power of these groups would be significantly less. USA #1"

yeah man. its also pretty convenient that you can just forget about the substantial amount of government corruption, crumbling infrastructure, lack of schools, lack of substantive economic policy, lack of government-financed programs, as well as the inability to police its borders that ALLOWED the fucking cartels to establish themselves in the first place. you fucking whiny potheads are all the same.

Im sure that none of those factors have anything to do with their failing civilization. Im sure some fucking weed is the magic bullet/magic solution to that country's clusterfuck.

legalizing weed would do JACK SHIT for Mexico and that is what I was calling him out on you pretentious douche nozzle.

1/16/2009 11:00:33 AM

^
Um. Has anyone has even mentioned weed? You are a pathetic troll.

Quote :

"all out legalization"

When I hear this phrase, I think of heroin, crack, lsd and other hard drugs being available at convenience stores for everyone over 18. I agree that that isn't the answer. But by simply allowing users (addicted or not,) to legally buy small amounts from pharmacies or clinics, at prices cheaper than what's available "on the street," THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of minor drug dealers, major drug traffickers, as well as domestic and foreign gangs would DISSAPEAR ALMOST OVERNIGHT. Even international terrorism would take a big financial hit. (Of course, if other nations also legalized drugs in concert with the US, terrorism would be hit hard.)

Quote :

"the demand is obviously not going down"

It will never go down. Why? Humans have been self-medicating (however maladaptive,) since before we were human. After humanity forever abandons drug prohibition, we will all look back and laugh that so many of us once had the notion that it was possible, let alone desirable to have authority over what substances people consume. It will truly be a beacon of the tragic mixture of misguided socially-conservative authoritarianism and unchecked intellectual capitalism. [/soapbox]

[Edited on January 16, 2009 at 11:22 AM. Reason : Weed was mentioned, but mostly in jest. The general "war on drugs" point remains....]

1/16/2009 11:14:41 AM

[Edited on January 16, 2009 at 11:14 AM. Reason : ]

1/16/2009 11:14:41 AM

Quote :

"yeah man. its also pretty convenient that you can just forget about the substantial amount of government corruption, crumbling infrastructure, lack of schools, lack of substantive economic policy, lack of government-financed programs, as well as the inability to police its borders that ALLOWED the fucking cartels to establish themselves in the first place. you fucking whiny potheads are all the same."

so you're saying your solution is to continue taking more money away from these things to fund an endless campaign that in the end makes the enemy stronger?

you either don't think your arguments out very thoroughly, or

Quote :

"You are a pathetic troll"

1/16/2009 11:25:52 AM

Quote :

"It's really sad that our drug policy is basically ruining that country. Ah well, I guess it's more important that we make sure 14 year olds can't get weed (they can anyway)."

weed.

Quote :

"so you're saying your solution is to continue taking more money away from these things to fund an endless campaign that in the end makes the enemy stronger?"

Im really not sure how you didnt understand what I said. some were making the argument that the US drug war caused Mexico to fall into ruin. I am making the argument that the Mexicans basically invited the cartels to take root in their country because of

Quote :

"he substantial amount of government corruption, crumbling infrastructure, lack of schools, lack of substantive economic policy, lack of government-financed programs, as well as the inability to police its borders"

well before there ever was a 'war on drugs.'

blaming the US drug policy for Mexico's failed situation is simply idiotic. surely, the 'war on drugs' doesnt help Mexico, but it didnt fucking start the fire.

1/16/2009 11:34:07 AM

helping a fire spread isnt really nice

1/16/2009 11:51:08 AM

come on.

as a country, as a populace, we have decided we dont want legalized drugs. its our fault that Mexico cannot take care of itself? they stuck the dick in their own ass here. they didnt need any help.

of all the arguments to legalize drugs, doing so because Mexico is retarded is by far the lamest.

[Edited on January 16, 2009 at 11:57 AM. Reason : .]

[Edited on January 16, 2009 at 11:58 AM. Reason : ..]

1/16/2009 11:57:28 AM

Yeah we should totally sell small amounts of LSD and crack out of Walmart pharmacies to help Mexico.

1/16/2009 11:59:28 AM

Quote :

"as a country, as a populace, we have decided we dont want legalized drugs"

speak for yourself

1/16/2009 12:03:10 PM

Quote :

"What kind of consequences would have for the United States, and what options does the United States have? Think of possible, realistic scenarios and how they might play out."

Realistically, Mexico's instability is the largest security threat to the US.

Here's a realistic scenario, and how the situation in Mexico is already spilling over into the US:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/world/americas/05mexico.html?_r=2

Also, the la times has been covering the situation pretty well.

http://projects.latimes.com/mexico-drug-war/#/its-a-war

1/16/2009 12:12:03 PM

Quote :

"you fucking whiny potheads are all the same"

I don't even smoke anymore yet i still think our policies are stupid.

Quote :

"forget about the substantial amount of government corruption"

who do you think bribes these corrupt officials???

Quote :

"well as the inability to police its borders"

why should mexico care and spend the resources to stop smugglers at the US border to help enforce our

War on Drugs. I am the uncorrupt police have more important battles.

Quote :

"legalizing weed would do JACK SHIT for Mexico"

you apparently didn't read any of my posts past the "moron" part.

besides Cocaine dwarves weed in the profit taking of the cartels.

Quote :

"blaming the US drug policy for Mexico's failed situation is simply idiotic"

You are right Mexico is not failing b.c of drug policies nor is it the primary reason. None the less our drug
policy is not helping and I would still describe it as a major contributing factor.

Quote :

"as a country, as a populace, we have decided we dont want legalized drugs"

lol. you mean the corporate elite with support from the right wing christian movement decided that did not want legalized drugs
and helped support their movement through spreading false propraganda and overly harsh anti-drug laws. I'd actually be
willing to bet that at least for pot a majority of the population disagrees with the current US policy towards pot.

Quote :

"Yeah we should totally sell small amounts of LSD and crack out of Walmart pharmacies to help Mexico."

*Carl face

1/16/2009 12:14:41 PM

But if Mexico goes down, there will no longer be a Hispanic team we can beat in soccer or baseball anymore...goodbye national pride...

1/16/2009 1:53:24 PM

uh if they make beer illegal again im sure all of you redneck idiots would be right along side the potheads.

1/16/2009 2:28:59 PM

Quote :

"uh if they make beer illegal again im sure all of you redneck idiots would be right along side the potheads."

lol

1/16/2009 2:40:11 PM

I'm curious, but even if we were to legalize weed, would it really make much of a difference regarding Mexican drug trafficking? Legalizing weed is one thing, but if we're talking more dangerous substances like cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamines, the legalization argument becomes more difficult to make and much harder as a society to swallow.

Besides, there are plenty of other criminal activities that Mexican criminal elements can turn to. Kidnapping seems to be good business for them these days.

1/16/2009 2:57:09 PM

^I think most people understand that weed is a minor player in this particular issue compared to cocaine especially...DaBird's girlfriend just ran off with a pothead and jaded him or something.

[Edited on January 16, 2009 at 3:20 PM. Reason : .]

1/16/2009 3:20:22 PM

The argument started over this gem :

Quote :

"It's really sad that our drug policy is basically ruining that country. "

Implying that our drug policy was what was ruining Mexico. Basically, a blame the US stance. So if most agree that marijuana has little to do with drug trafficking over national borders, then our drug policy has very little to do with Mexico's problems, and DaBird's original argument is right.

Mexico has never had a stable central government. The Mexican government was weak and corrupt before the "War on Drugs," so to blame that for Mexico's problems seems a bit silly.

1/16/2009 6:27:07 PM

Quote :

"lol. you mean the corporate elite with support from the right wing christian movement decided that did not want legalized drugs and helped support their movement through spreading false propraganda and overly harsh anti-drug laws. I'd actually be willing to bet that at least for pot a majority of the population disagrees with the current US policy towards pot. "

the day our elected officials legalize pot you will be correct. until then, you are completely and hopelessly wrong. politicians are whores for elections. if there was as public clamoring it would change.

Quote :

"who do you think bribes these corrupt officials??? "

mexican politicians have never been ones to turn down a bribe...a tradition that started WAY before any drug trade.

Quote :

" why should mexico care and spend the resources to stop smugglers at the US border to help enforce our War on Drugs."

their border is open. it is a national security concern bc muslim radicals, criminals and any and all other vagrants can basically come and go into Mexico as they please (then possibly enter our own). there might not be an easier country to smuggle contraband into then Mexico, another tradition that attracted the cartels.

these are all examples of the egg coming before the chicken in Mexico.

Quote :

"you apparently didn't read any of my posts past the "moron" part. besides Cocaine dwarves weed in the profit taking of the cartels. "

somebody made the weed comment and thats who I started ranting against. of course the other drugs are more profitable.

Quote :

"I think most people understand that weed is a minor player in this particular issue compared to cocaine especially...DaBird's girlfriend just ran off with a pothead and jaded him or something."

nah I am just going to take you whiny bitches to task everytime one of you starts bitching about weed. I used to have a neutral opinion about the legalization of weed because I know how relatively harmless it is. however, the asinine and lame ass whining by the potheads of our country have convinced me to be against it just to spite them.

Quote :

"Mexico has never had a stable central government. The Mexican government was weak and corrupt before the "War on Drugs," so to blame that for Mexico's problems seems a bit silly."

exactly

1/16/2009 9:46:03 PM

The 51st State?

1/17/2009 12:12:43 AM

instead of blaming the US drug policy, how about blaming the US drug demand. Somehow, that never gets talked about. The reason gangs are killing each other in Mexico to smuggle drugs into the US is because as a society, we seem to have an insatiable appetite for weed, cocaine and heroin. Forget what the government is doing about it - have the millions of crack smokers or coke sniffer or heroin shooters think about what their desire for that shit is doing to other countries.

1/17/2009 12:48:47 AM

Yeah, we need to sit down and talk some sense into these darn crackheads

1/17/2009 1:09:01 AM

American society is no different than any other in terms of drug addiction. We just have the money in this part of the world. Europe has the same problem we do, just replace Turkey with Mexico. Same with Japan/Korea.

1/17/2009 2:32:51 AM

uh people like drugs

1/17/2009 2:49:29 AM

^
Exactly.....and there's nothing wrong with that.

Quote :

"have the millions of crack smokers or coke sniffer or heroin shooters think about what their desire for that shit is doing to other countries."

The desire you speak of isn't the problem. At all. That desire (the desire to self-medicate, however maladaptive,) is a part of human nature, and will always exist. And why not? We crave food and sex just like we crave medicaments, and all three have done us very well as a species.

Now, others are quick to point out that harms typically result from the over-use, misuse, abuse, or otherwise irresponsible use of food, sex, or medicaments, but it remains clear that the food, sex and medicaments, in and of themselves, are not responsible for those harms.

Suggesting that the combined force of millions of drug-seeking individuals (many of which are responsible and otherwise law-abiding,) is what's to blame for the harms resulting from competing criminals seeking to profit from the supplying of those drugs, misses the point entirely. If the drugs were available at local pharmacies, the criminals would be "out of business" and subsequently their funding, territorial disputes, and ability to control and bribe others would all disappear. It's the drug prohibition that is responsible for these harms. The prohibition is what's new; it's what's "artificial". Remove this "unnatural" prohibition on drug-use, and all of the harms related to the illegal drug trade vanish.

Besides....how can simple use of drugs (healthy or not,) be a crime, anyway? Simply consuming a drug responsibly is a civil liberty, in that you aren't harming anyone else or anyone else's property or liberty. In the future, our "experiment" with drug prohibition will likely be viewed as being second only to slavery in terms of its folly.

1/17/2009 7:41:46 AM

clap... clap... clap...


HOORAY FOR DRUGS

1/17/2009 10:54:18 AM

Quote :

"Besides....how can simple use of drugs (healthy or not,) be a crime, anyway? Simply consuming a drug responsibly is a civil liberty, in that you aren't harming anyone else or anyone else's property or liberty. In the future, our "experiment" with drug prohibition will likely be viewed as being second only to slavery in terms of its folly."

nuttier than squirrel turds

your civil liberties end when they infringe on mine. the myriad of societal problems that would be spawned from ending this 'experiment' would have far-reaching, negative effects on EVERYONE. if you have half a brain, you know that.

maybe you could argue weed. maybe

you need to have your head examined otherwise. ask anyone with first hand knowledge of drug addiction.

[Edited on January 17, 2009 at 6:36 PM. Reason : .]

1/17/2009 6:35:57 PM

I think fat people stuffing their guts with triple thick burgers are infringing my rights when their obesity related health problems cost me to pay higher premiums on my insurance, when they can take up part of my seat in the airplane, etc

1/17/2009 7:35:30 PM

Quote :

"your civil liberties end when they infringe on mine"

I don't disagree. However, responsible drug use, (of any drug,) doesn't infringe on you, your property, or your liberty. What are the "societal problems" you speak of? How are they a result of responsible drug use? (FYI: You don't have to use the word "of" with the word "myriad". You would say, "the myriad societal problems that...." )

1/17/2009 7:55:47 PM

Quote :

"Now, others are quick to point out that harms typically result from the over-use, misuse, abuse, or otherwise irresponsible use of food, sex, or medicaments, but it remains clear that the food, sex and medicaments, in and of themselves, are not responsible for those harms."

que? 1) the "medicaments" you speak of have addictive chemicals in them, so they are partially responsible for harm. when taken, it's nearly impossible to stop using. and 2) i've yet to meet a crackhead that uses drugs responsibly because they are seeking relief for their addiction. responsible drug use may not perpetuate harm, but how many responsible drug users are out there (vs. irresponsible)?

1/17/2009 8:39:19 PM

Quote :

"instead of blaming the US drug policy, how about blaming the US drug demand. Somehow, that never gets talked about. The reason gangs are killing each other in Mexico to smuggle drugs into the US is because as a society, we seem to have an insatiable appetite for weed, cocaine and heroin. Forget what the government is doing about it - have the millions of crack smokers or coke sniffer or heroin shooters think about what their desire for that shit is doing to other countries."

Why yes if only people could stop enjoying things we have banned arbitrarily.

1/17/2009 9:33:57 PM

legalizing drugs won't make these cartels go away. black market drugs will still end up cheaper than anything that comes out of our pharmaceutical industry because of a lack of taxes and industry regulation. The only thing that would change is the ability of our government to prosecute the people selling drugs.

if we didn't fight the war on drugs, then we wouldn't be able to steal back the billions of dollars of cartel money when we loot their bank accounts and seize their assets. I'd rather see that money be circulated back into our law enforcement agencies than just siphoned out of our own country.

1/17/2009 11:00:28 PM

Quote :

"black market drugs will still end up cheaper than anything that comes out of our pharmaceutical industry because of a lack of taxes and industry regulation."

The example of alcohol suggests otherwise. The end of prohibition proved a death blow for bootleggers. The gangs involved had to turn to other activities for profit.

1/17/2009 11:17:44 PM

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1/17/2009 11:23:58 PM