For the 4th Year running, the Guru has returned! I'm proud to say that participation over the years has stayed high in these threads has stayed high.

Year one - http://message_topic.aspx?topic=418053

Year two - http://message_topic.aspx?topic=481039

Year three - http://message_topic.aspx?topic=529742

The song remains the same this year. I will do my best to offer insightful advice on drafting techniques, who to avoid, who to pursue, and later on once games start...who to start, and who to bench, along with last minute injury reports.

Again, any question asked directly to me, I'll gladly offer insight...all other questions are fair game. This thread is all about opinions and updates, so if you've got em, give em.

We saw two things this past year that changed the way that fantasy football will be played this year, and likely from here on out.

1) The King Has Fallen - LT is officially no longer the top dog in fantasy football. He had many years at the top, but AP has not taken over as the consensus #1 Pick. In fact, the fall from grace has been so significant, that many ADP (Average Draft Positions) have LT going as low as low as 7th in a 10 man draft. http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?teams=10 He will be missed and he was the closest thing to a sure thing @ RB that Fantasy Football has seen in a while.

2) Never Draft a QB in the 1st Round - For those who hopped on the Tom Brady train last year, they were rewarded with a season ending injury in week 1. In retrospect, taking a QB in week 1 is SUCH a risky proposition, given that most teams only play one QB, so they ended up salvaging their starting lineups to stay competitive. Basically, don't do it. If it's Brees, maybe the 2nd round, but anyone else, 3-5 is ideal.

So let's get it started. What are you looking forward to most this year? Who do you have as the pick after AP? Fitz or Andre? By the way, RB, RB in the 1st 2 rounds is all but dead. Just sayin.

I look forward to helping you out this year, so let's make it a good one.

Good Luck!

- The Guru

6/15/2009 11:40:18 PM

In leagues that count 6 points for a passing TD, Bree is a first rounder IMO, and Manning and Brady are early 2nds

6/15/2009 11:43:40 PM

I have LT and Brees, and only one keeper, so I picked Brees. I guess that technically makes him my first-round pick, hopefully he won't fall victim to a shot like Brady did.

One name that seems to have sky-rocketed up the draft boards this year is MJD. I had him his rookie season, great late pick, but has that offense improved enough for him to warrant going as high as 2nd? I mean that OL was obliterated last season, Garrard is...well...Garrard, and Taylor is gone so MJD has to carry the whole ground game. I just don't see why he's being taken above someone like Westbrook, Turner, or DeA(who I still don't really have a good feeling about).

And while I really like Fitz, and he was a monster in the post-season, until I see what Boldin does, I can't put him above Andre. If Boldin stays, then I'd probably put Fitz as the #1. But at the same time, if Brady is 100%, does Moss not shoot back up the board?

6/16/2009 12:47:30 AM

LT at #7? Does he even deserve that much? I don't have him in my top 10 RBs.

How on earth do you evaluate Brady and Moss after the up and down of the last 2 years?

6/16/2009 7:37:15 AM

How did you forget Matt Forte.

In most mock drafts I've participated in so far at least the first five picks all have been RB's.

[Edited on June 16, 2009 at 8:44 AM. Reason : ]

6/16/2009 8:44:06 AM

I'm in a pretty shitty position in my keeper league....I've gotta keep two from the below:

Warner
Palmer
L. Washington
Housh
Hightower
P. Thomas

Not sure what I'm gonna do.

6/16/2009 10:04:55 AM

Damn. I would almost suggest taking Warner and Palmer, that way your QB's are taken care of and you can focus on getting a real team.

6/16/2009 11:20:51 AM

I'd definitely keep Warner, esp. if Boldin is still around. Palmer I'm not sure about, I'd almost consider keeping P. Thomas with Deuce gone and Bush not really being a feature back.

6/16/2009 11:32:16 AM

^^Yeah, at this point that's what I'm leaning toward.....there's just no easy answer, all good players, but none great (unless warner can repeat his '08 performance).

6/16/2009 11:53:34 AM

DEANGELO WILLIAMS FOR ANOTHER YEAR half year OF DOMINANCE HERE WE COME....

6/16/2009 1:15:11 PM

Man, if Chicago could land either troubled wideout in Plaxico or espeically Brandon Marshall....Jay Cutler would move up the draft boards quick.

6/17/2009 9:47:23 AM

^yep, he's really nothing more than a backup now.

6/17/2009 10:38:19 AM

Quote :

" Warner Palmer L. Washington Housh Hightower P. Thomas"

Warner and Thomas

6/17/2009 12:17:52 PM

This year seems wide open in most respects. Maurice Jones-Drew has been moving up the draft boards - fantasyfootballcalculator: 4, Yahoo Fantasy: 1, ESPN: 3.
Anyone thinking of MJD as a possible #1 pick?

6/22/2009 9:41:55 AM

I have the #4 pick in my draft and I'm keeping a QB so I've considered MJD if he were available at the spot, but I'm still not sold on that OL. RB's that are "change of pace backs" like he, L. Washington, D. Sproles, etc., don't always work out well as the premiere back. Still weighing options and trying to figure out what will be available when I pick(who is keeping who, etc.).

6/22/2009 9:52:48 AM

I could see MJD as a solid #2 or 3 pick, but I cant justify taking a player who has never shouldered the entire load by himself over AP

6/22/2009 10:05:20 AM

who offers the best free fantasy football format in your opinion?

we've been using cbs sportsline the past few years...it isn't bad, but i wanted to see what else was out there.

was also in a free espn league last year, but i didn't like that one very much.

6/22/2009 2:01:06 PM

fleaflicker.com is pretty solid.

6/22/2009 2:48:39 PM

^^ i always thought yahoo was the gold standard for fantasy sports

6/22/2009 4:08:36 PM

My friends and I are planning to move from Yahoo to ESPN this year, because ESPN has free live updates.

Why has MJD moved up the boards so much? I didn't think he was even top 10.

6/22/2009 7:00:27 PM

^Departure of Fred Taylor, Jacksonville is one of the top running teams, MJD is young and healthy. I don't know that I could justify him above AP, but he has the potential to be #2 on my list.

That being said, I'm in PPR so that makes a big difference as well.

[Edited on June 22, 2009 at 9:01 PM. Reason : ppr]

6/22/2009 9:00:54 PM

I just found out that you can Twitter anyone. Including professional atheletes. Yeah, I have been refusing to accept twitter or even learn what it is. I plan to make an account right after our leage has it's draft in August with the sole purpose of following everyone on my roster. Last year it would have been nice to be able to send a message to Ryan Grant telling him how shitty he is and that I regret drafting him in the 4th round.

6/24/2009 10:14:23 AM

Yahoo just went completely free with StatTracker and added a bunch of cool stuff to the set up's of the league.

Really good differentiators if you are looking for that kind of stuff.

http://idek.net/Hnf

7/2/2009 2:24:46 PM

i wish they'd do that for baseball

7/2/2009 2:52:06 PM

weird that they mentioned andre in that article

7/2/2009 5:24:40 PM

for the record I started this guru shit... but for the good of the country I let Panthro run with it

7/4/2009 12:07:30 AM

you jump in 4 years later and talk about starting this shit?

That's like some deadbeat dad stuff, only to come around when your son makes the Pro's. And you ain't no damn guru either.

7/4/2009 1:39:20 AM

Bump....because I miss Fantasy Football.

7/10/2009 4:15:09 PM

one league I have AP, Westbrook, and Chris Johnson (can keep 2)


other league, I have AP, Turner, Chris Johnson, Brady, Fitzgerald, Warner (can keep 2)


and no, I didnt win either league


Figure AP is a given in both.

waiting to see how Westbrook looks coming back from injury, but leaning towards Johnson

in the other league, leaning towards Turner

do you agree?



and are you going to man up and join THE league? if you get in then Slave Famous can join cause we would have an even 14

[Edited on July 10, 2009 at 4:18 PM. Reason : d]

7/10/2009 4:18:16 PM

in league 1 i'd go with johnson. feel like he is less risky. westbrook is getting older, and has a tendency to miss a game or two.

in league 2...
thats a harder call. in a PPR league fitz may get the nod. in a regular league, turner or johnson IMO.

7/21/2009 11:39:32 AM

Quote :

"westbrook is getting older, and has a tendency to miss a game or two."

dont forget he's nursing a potentially season ending injury already, they're keeping it rather quiet though

7/21/2009 12:27:03 PM

Will never draft another Denver RB

7/21/2009 1:12:55 PM

I did a fantasy draft on ESPN a few minutes ago due to pure boredom and would love to see you critique it. I'm Bojangles sweet tea. I know I was reaching a bit in round 9 but I felt like I got good value overall in the draft considering how fucked up the order is when you get the first pick.

Round: 1
** (1) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Adrian Peterson RB
(2) Team Keeney - Michael Turner RB
(3) Team Plotkin - Maurice Jones-Drew RB
(4) Team Callen - Matt Forte RB
(5) Team Boston - LaDainian Tomlinson RB
(6) Team White - Drew Brees QB
(7) Team New England - DeAngelo Williams RB
(8) cckin yrmouth - Larry Fitzgerald WR
(9) Team Remillard - John Carney K
(10) Team naylor - Chris Johnson RB

Round: 2
(11) Team naylor - Andre Johnson WR
(12) Team Remillard - Brett Favre QB
(13) cckin yrmouth - Steven Jackson RB
(14) Team New England - Calvin Johnson WR
(15) Team White - Brandon Jacobs RB
(16) Team Boston - Steve Slaton RB
(17) Team Callen - Tom Brady QB
(18) Team Plotkin - Randy Moss WR
(19) Team Keeney - Brian Westbrook RB
** (20) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Marion Barber RB

Round: 3
** (21) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Peyton Manning QB
(22) Team Keeney - Frank Gore RB
(23) Team Plotkin - Clinton Portis RB
(24) Team Callen - Steve Smith WR
(25) Team Boston - Reggie Wayne WR
(26) Team White - Greg Jennings WR
(27) Team New England - Roddy White WR
(28) cckin yrmouth - Aaron Rodgers QB
(29) Team Remillard - Matt Stover K
(30) Team naylor - Terrell Owens WR

Round: 4
(31) Team naylor - Ronnie Brown RB
(32) Team Remillard - John Kasay K
(33) cckin yrmouth - Ryan Grant RB
(34) Team New England - Dwayne Bowe WR
(35) Team White - Marques Colston WR
(36) Team Boston - Anquan Boldin WR
(37) Team Callen - Derrick Ward RB
(38) Team Plotkin - Jason Witten TE
(39) Team Keeney - Kurt Warner QB
** (40) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Pierre Thomas RB

Round: 5
** (41) Bojangles Sweet Tea - DeSean Jackson WR
(42) Team Keeney - Brandon Marshall WR
(43) Team Plotkin - Kevin Smith RB
(44) Team Callen - Wes Welker WR
(45) Team Boston - Roy E. Williams WR
(46) Team White - Thomas Jones RB
(47) Team New England - Larry Johnson RB
(48) cckin yrmouth - Jonathan Stewart RB
(49) Team Remillard - Brad Johnson QB
(50) Team naylor - Jason Hanson K

Round: 6
(51) Team naylor - Mark Brunell QB
(52) Team Remillard - Trent Green QB
(53) cckin yrmouth - T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR
(54) Team New England - Antonio Gates TE
(55) Team White - Marshawn Lynch RB
(56) Team Boston - Willie Parker RB
(57) Team Callen - Tony Gonzalez TE
(58) Team Plotkin - Philip Rivers QB
(59) Team Keeney - Tony Romo QB
** (60) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Matt Ryan QB

Round: 7
** (61) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Braylon Edwards WR
(62) Team Keeney - Antonio Bryant WR
(63) Team Plotkin - Vincent Jackson WR
(64) Team Callen - LenDale White RB
(65) Team Boston - Knowshon Moreno RB
(66) Team White - Reggie Bush RB
(67) Team New England - Joseph Addai RB
(68) cckin yrmouth - Dallas Clark TE
(69) Team Remillard - Lorenzo Neal RB
(70) Team naylor - Jason Elam K

Round: 8
(71) Team naylor - Jamie Martin QB
(72) Team Remillard - Gus Frerotte QB
(73) cckin yrmouth - Matt Schaub QB
(74) Team New England - Chad Ochocinco WR
(75) Team White - Bernard Berrian WR
(76) Team Boston - Steelers D/ST D/ST
(77) Team Callen - Cedric Benson RB
(78) Team Plotkin - Darren McFadden RB
(79) Team Keeney - Ahmad Bradshaw RB
** (80) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Chris Cooley TE

Round: 9
** (81) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Michael Crabtree WR
(82) Team Keeney - Owen Daniels TE
(83) Team Plotkin - Giants D/ST D/ST
(84) Team Callen - Lee Evans WR
(85) Team Boston - Hines Ward WR
(86) Team White - Chris Wells RB
(87) Team New England - Jay Cutler QB
(88) cckin yrmouth - Santonio Holmes WR
(89) Team Remillard - Isaac Bruce WR
(90) Team naylor - Kerry Collins QB

Round: 10
(91) Team naylor - Todd Collins QB
(92) Team Remillard - Mark Bruener TE
(93) cckin yrmouth - Donald Driver WR
(94) Team New England - Eddie Royal WR
(95) Team White - Santana Moss WR
(96) Team Boston - Carson Palmer QB
(97) Team Callen - Kevin Walter WR
(98) Team Plotkin - Anthony Gonzalez WR
(99) Team Keeney - Jamal Lewis RB
** (100) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Lance Moore WR

Round: 11
** (101) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Panthers D/ST D/ST
(102) Team Keeney - Torry Holt WR
(103) Team Plotkin - Donovan McNabb QB
(104) Team Callen - Ray Rice RB
(105) Team Boston - Earnest Graham RB
(106) Team White - Kellen Winslow TE
(107) Team New England - Joey Galloway WR
(108) cckin yrmouth - Thomas Gafford TE
(109) Team Remillard - Tony Richardson RB
(110) Team naylor - Marcus Pollard TE

Round: 12
(111) Team naylor - Muhsin Muhammad WR
(112) Team Remillard - Bobby Engram WR
(113) cckin yrmouth - Chiefs D/ST D/ST
(114) Team New England - Marvin Harrison WR
(115) Team White - Julius Jones RB
(116) Team Boston - Greg Olsen TE
(117) Team Callen - Ben Roethlisberger QB
(118) Team Plotkin - Terry Glenn WR
(119) Team Keeney - Steve Breaston WR
** (120) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Kevin Boss TE

Round: 13
** (121) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Tim Hightower RB
(122) Team Keeney - Ravens D/ST D/ST
(123) Team Plotkin - Amani Toomer WR
(124) Team Callen - Titans D/ST D/ST
(125) Team Boston - Kyle Orton QB
(126) Team White - Devin Hester WR
(127) Team New England - Eddie Kennison WR
(128) cckin yrmouth - Joe Nedney K
(129) Team Remillard - Joe Horn WR
(130) Team naylor - Adam Vinatieri K

Round: 14
(131) Team naylor - Warrick Dunn RB
(132) Team Remillard - Ike Hilliard WR
(133) cckin yrmouth - Olindo Mare K
(134) Team New England - Corey Dillon RB
(135) Team White - Eagles D/ST D/ST
(136) Team Boston - Derrick Mason WR
(137) Team Callen - Rashard Mendenhall RB
(138) Team Plotkin - James Thrash WR
(139) Team Keeney - Vikings D/ST D/ST
** (140) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Ted Ginn Jr. WR

Round: 15
** (141) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Percy Harvin WR
(142) Team Keeney - Ryan Longwell K
(143) Team Plotkin - Jon Kitna QB
(144) Team Callen - Stephen Gostkowski K
(145) Team Boston - David Patten WR
(146) Team White - Damon Huard QB
(147) Team New England - Phil Dawson K
(148) cckin yrmouth - Todd Bouman QB
(149) Team Remillard - Fred Taylor RB
(150) Team naylor - Ahman Green RB

Round: 16
(151) Team naylor - Falcons D/ST D/ST
(152) Team Remillard - Bills D/ST D/ST
(153) cckin yrmouth - Joe Jurevicius WR
(154) Team New England - Bears D/ST D/ST
(155) Team White - Mike Vanderjagt K
(156) Team Boston - David Akers K
(157) Team Callen - Laveranues Coles WR
(158) Team Plotkin - Martin Gramatica K
(159) Team Keeney - Charlie Batch QB
** (160) Bojangles Sweet Tea - Mason Crosby K

7/21/2009 1:57:18 PM

I sure feel bad for Team Remillard...

You got surprising value for your WR's with those picks. Is Marion Barber still worth top 20 these days though?

7/21/2009 6:20:29 PM

Laverneus Coles in the 16th round?? I'd take that everyday and twice on Sunday. He's not spectacular, but he should be able to get a lot of open looks with Ocho Cinco and Chris Henry dictating coverages. If Carson Palmer comes back to form and can keep from injured he could have a good year.

Also don't forget the fact that the Bengals defense is god awful so they will have to throw a lot

7/21/2009 8:01:30 PM

pick your one keeper

Brown, Ronnie MIA RB 203 4
Forte, Matt CHI RB 296 8
Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 232 6
Slaton, Steve HOU RB 261 2

Johnson, Andre HOU WR 302 2
Marshall, Brandon DEN WR 255 8


ppr league... leaning towards forte

7/24/2009 7:59:37 AM

^Yep.

7/24/2009 8:20:47 AM

good grief, yes. Forte.

I can't wait for this season to start!

Got the NFL Sunday Ticket and Superfan ready to roll. 1st season ever with this.

FUCK YES!

7/24/2009 10:27:39 AM

Mock draft = play money poker game

7/24/2009 12:44:06 PM

Ok, so I'm in an 16 team uber-league. I figured I'd ask about what I should do with my first pick (12).

I'm projecting myself to have the ability to draft between these 4: Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, Frank Gore, and Steven Jackson. 1/2 PPR league. I'm leaning towards one of the Houston boys...I really like Slaton to have a breakout season.

7/27/2009 9:46:49 PM

^ I wouldn't count on Jackson being there at 12... he is predicted around 5-7 and RBs are typically high commodity anyway.

7/28/2009 3:25:50 PM

I would agree with ^. Jackson will not be there @ 12. Given the depth of the league, I would make a run at Andre and Gore. In a 12 man league doing a snake draft, if you have the 12 spot, you won't get another crack at a WR for quite a while.

If you can do some combination of Andre Johnson/Gore or Randy Moss/Slaton either of those would be a success.

I like Slaton too, but be careful. Houston Coaches are already looking a Goal Line Back to give him a break.

7/28/2009 3:36:57 PM

its a 16 man league GURU

some fucking GURU you are

he gets 12 and 21

7/28/2009 3:38:49 PM

WHOA! Stalker.

Slaton & Jennings would be solid though.

Here's the ADP for the first 2 rounds in a 16 man league.

1 1.01 Adrian Peterson
2 1.03 Maurice Jones-Drew
3 1.03 Michael Turner
4 1.04 Matt Forte
5 1.06 Steven Jackson
6 1.07 Larry Fitzgerald
7 1.07 LaDainian Tomlinson
8 1.08 Chris Johnson
9 1.10 Andre Johnson
10 1.11 Deangelo Williams
11 1.11 Randy Moss
12 1.11 Steve Slaton
13 1.13 Frank Gore
14 1.14 Drew Brees
15 1.15 Calvin Johnson
16 1.16 Brian Westbrook
17 2.01 Brandon Jacobs
18 2.02 Tom Brady
19 2.03 Reggie Wayne
20 2.04 Clinton Portis
21 2.05 Greg Jennings
22 2.06 Steve Smith
23 2.07 Marion Barber
24 2.08 Roddy White
25 2.09 Marques Colston
26 2.10 Ronnie Brown
27 2.11 Peyton Manning
28 2.12 Anquan Boldin
29 2.13 Dwayne Bowe
30 2.14 Pierre Thomas
31 2.15 Ryan Grant
32 2.16 Wes Welker

[Edited on July 28, 2009 at 3:55 PM. Reason : THE GURU]

7/28/2009 3:54:34 PM

I just gotta wonder who is in Shivan Bird's list of top-10 running backs, if neither LT nor MJD make the cut.

7/28/2009 5:11:50 PM

I'd be pretty OK with taking either one in the first round.

7/28/2009 5:44:24 PM

seems like a pretty low ADP for MB3

7/28/2009 5:45:23 PM

Quote :

"I just gotta wonder who is in Shivan Bird's list of top-10 running backs, if neither LT nor MJD make the cut."

LT's age is going to catch up with him. His yards were down last year and when he stops getting in the endzone, he's done in the top 10. As for MJD, last I heard he was undersized and usually finishes around #10 in points in position. I like him but I don't know when people started calling him #2 overall.

7/28/2009 6:11:00 PM

You said that LT is not in your top 10 running backs, and that you don't think MJD is. I simply want you to list 10 RBs that you like better.

7/28/2009 6:18:26 PM

i too am curious what your top 10 RB list looks like. i.e. the 10 RB's names

7/28/2009 6:19:10 PM