It has shrunk by 15% in the last 15 years. It won't fuck us up, but it will be a hell of a show.

Quote :

"Fate It is possible that Betelgeuse will become a supernova, [4][26] which will be the brightest ever recorded, outshining the Moon in the night sky.[26] Considering its size and age of 8.5 million years, old for its size class, it may explode within the next thousand years.[26] Since its rotational axis is not toward the Earth and also because of its 430 light year distance,[26] Betelgeuse's supernova will not cause a gamma ray burst in the direction of Earth large enough to damage its ecosystem. Nobel Laureate Charles Townes announced evidence that 15 consecutive years of stellar contraction has been observed by UC Berkeley's Infrared Spatial Interferometer (ISI) atop Mt. Wilson Observatory in Southern California. Reported on June 9, 2009, the star has shrunk 15% since 1993 with an increasing rate. The average speed at which the radius of the star is shrinking over the last 15 years is approximately 210–219 m/s (470–490 mph).[27] According to the university, Betelgeuse's radius is about 5.5 A.U.s, and the star's radius has shrunk by a distance equal to half an astronomical unit, or about the orbit of Venus.[28] Some theorists[who?] have speculated that this behavior is expected for a star at the beginning of the gravitational collapse at the end of its life.[citation needed] The mass of Betelgeuse puts it in range to become a neutron star or possibly a black hole."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betelgeuse

[Edited on August 20, 2009 at 10:54 AM. Reason : .]

8/20/2009 10:53:17 AM

Technically this information is 430 years old, still interesting though.

8/20/2009 10:55:38 AM

Quote :

"it may explode within the next thousand years"

i guess very is relative.

8/20/2009 10:56:33 AM

Quote :

" a distance equal to half an astronomical unit, or about the orbit of Venus"

ah that clears that up

8/20/2009 10:57:57 AM

An AU is the average distance between the Earth and the Sun.

8/20/2009 10:59:19 AM

The "thousand" is just a guess. This result was presented June of this year. I'm interested to see if there is any theory out there to match this size rate of change and if a more reliable estimate can be made to when it's going to go BOOM.

...

but I would think that 15% in 15 years is incredible... maybe it's just going through a phase change to a more stable position for burning... or maybe not

8/20/2009 11:00:11 AM

It's probably already gone.

8/20/2009 11:01:05 AM

We've been observing an infinitesimal slice of the universe for an infinitesimal length of time. We don't know fuck about shit, as my lovely wife would say.

8/20/2009 11:01:56 AM

I'm AstralAdvent and i approved this message.

8/20/2009 11:02:05 AM

orion is my favorite constellation, ever since i was a young lad

8/20/2009 11:03:02 AM

^^^

wrong, we know a lot about a great many things

8/20/2009 11:03:55 AM

dangit, i realize in terms of star age and such that 1000 years is soon, but i was kinda hoping it would at least be within our lifetimes

8/20/2009 11:04:55 AM

^^

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

HAHAHAHAHA

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Edited on August 20, 2009 at 11:05 AM. Reason : .]

8/20/2009 11:05:19 AM

^^ it could be...

[Edited on August 20, 2009 at 11:05 AM. Reason : .]

8/20/2009 11:05:32 AM

We suspect we know a lot about our local portion of space-time. That is like saying you know a lot about the ocean based on a drop of water, and that analogy still falls far short of describing our ignorance.

8/20/2009 11:06:02 AM

Imma do what now?

8/20/2009 11:06:18 AM

^^^^

it's the cackle of the ignorant who do not understand how far we have come

[Edited on August 20, 2009 at 11:07 AM. Reason : .]

8/20/2009 11:07:12 AM

^^^

just because there is much to learn doesn't mean you do not know a lot already

8/20/2009 11:08:24 AM

No Hitchiker's references?

8/20/2009 11:09:44 AM

You are bordering on hubris, sir.

8/20/2009 11:10:24 AM

yeah... and the consequence is?

8/20/2009 11:11:59 AM

Frosh stop trollin'

Last thing this thread needs is an English major trying to lecture us about physics/science

lol

8/20/2009 11:18:05 AM

I used to be a Cub Scout, too. I was in French Club, and I used to wear my hair short, and I used to own a Buick. I used to be a lot of things, including an English major, and none of them have anything to do with what I might or might not know about science. But I am a college-educated motherfucker, motherfucker, and I'm clearly smarter than the average bear. I'd venture to say that it's entirely plausible that I've got a better grasp of science than you give me credit for. So take the beam out of your eye, guy.

8/20/2009 11:22:48 AM

I'm not going to play the us-them thing. All I want is for us to get out of the shadow of this kind of nonsense:


As for me, all I know is that I know nothing. - Socrates

That is just fucking retarded cynical nihilistic bullshit.

[Edited on August 20, 2009 at 11:25 AM. Reason : .]

8/20/2009 11:25:17 AM

STOUTE YOU MUST NOT PLAY AT BEING GOD

8/20/2009 11:25:44 AM

Quote :

"BAD AS CAN"

8/20/2009 11:26:02 AM

man, I am a stones throw from being Morman

8/20/2009 11:26:57 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cZ1OTcGyQA

8/20/2009 11:28:37 AM

8/20/2009 11:30:47 AM

^Haha, I can imagine the star going...

"Hey what are you doing?!? Hey! Hey...this could be a good look for me."

8/20/2009 11:33:48 AM

Quote :

"Technically this information is 430 years old, still interesting though."

LOL

(*snort*)

and i'm such a fucking nerd, i was mad that you beat me to it.

gg with being [first]

8/20/2009 11:35:20 AM

Quote :

"Betelgeuse's radius is about 5.5 A.U.s"

shit, that's pretty big.

if you were to replace our sun with that star, it would engulf all the planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars and Jupiter, and blow the rings off of Saturn.

Quote :

"it may explode within the next thousand years."

or... it may have already exploded

8/20/2009 11:41:52 AM

Quote :

"Technically this information is 430 years old, still interesting though."

I too, found this humorous and under-appreciated.

8/20/2009 12:02:20 PM

I think it's so cool that everytime we look at the stars we are looking at the past. We are looking at light that is hundreds and thousands of years old.

8/20/2009 12:27:50 PM

Quote :

" But I am a college-educated motherfucker, motherfucker, and I'm clearly smarter than the average bear."

Oh boy he's college-educated, step out of the way.

ps physics owns and we kinda know a lot. Your adolescent BUT WE DONT KNOW ANYTHING, MANNNNNN observation is not clever, new, or constructive.

[Edited on August 20, 2009 at 12:37 PM. Reason : ]

8/20/2009 12:37:40 PM

Hate me so much you can taste it, huh? Just pitiful, just hate your heart out. Buying billboard space and shit. Letters to the editor, you hate so much. Talk about me to your girlfriend. Just mad, just hatin'. Just dumb-as-shit hatin' yourself blind. Makes your fuckin' butthole clench.

8/20/2009 12:41:40 PM

ah, so you're one of those people. It explains a lot.





[Edited on August 20, 2009 at 12:45 PM. Reason : mcfaggot]

8/20/2009 12:44:48 PM

P.S. Shouts to my homeboy H. P. Lovecraft on his 119th birthday. He knows what I'm talkin' about!

8/20/2009 12:46:29 PM

look
shut the fuck up ok

you were right the first fucking time you burst the pimple of wikipedia knowhow you call your head. just stop

stop

nobody cares enough to hear your 15 different versions of how you were right to begin with.

shutting the mortal fuck up isn't an artform, fuckface, it's a right given to us by the lord GOD you get me?


Slow down

Take a deep breath

And go fuck yourself

it aint so hard as you think

[Edited on August 20, 2009 at 12:47 PM. Reason : a]

8/20/2009 12:46:30 PM

We could have avoided this if all of you assholes had traded in your SUVs for hybrids 3 years ago.

Buncha morons.

8/20/2009 12:49:09 PM

lulz

Quote :

"Technically this information is 430 years old, still interesting though."

8/20/2009 3:48:59 PM

8/20/2009 3:55:12 PM

double post!

[Edited on August 20, 2009 at 3:56 PM. Reason : arg]

8/20/2009 3:55:54 PM

I never had, in my head, really known the size difference between uranus/neptune and saturn/jupiter

8/20/2009 3:59:42 PM

Quote :

"I'm interested to see if there is any theory out there to match this size rate of change and if a more reliable estimate can be made to when it's going to go BOOM."

Back when we were both white and nerdy together in the physics department, I did some astro research on hydrological models of supernova collapse. It was for a different application, but there are indeed models of the rate of evolution and collapse. I'm not sure what the limits of precision are these days for their predictive power, though, since we don't have a ton of data at the level of detail required about stars immediately before becoming supernovae.

8/20/2009 4:16:11 PM

you know, I do have a big fucking book called Astrophysics that probably talks about models of stellar evolution. They probably have a section or two on the evolution towards a supernova. I'll check on that... in fact I might just

you know

google it right now.

8/20/2009 4:23:42 PM

Quote :

"I'm interested to see if there is any theory out there to match this size rate of change and if a more reliable estimate can be made to when it's going to go BOOM."

Within a few thousand years is probably closer than any theory on this can reasonably hope to achieve. We've never observed anything like this before, so the theories on this are pretty unconstrained. It may well be within our lifetime though, I certainly hope it is. It will be incredibly bright, brighter than the full moon for at least a month before slowly fading. If Orion happens to be out during the day at that time, it will be easily visible during the day time, looking like a bright star.

Interesting side note: Charles Townes, the guy who discovered the shrinking by monitoring the expansion over several years, is 94 years old...

8/20/2009 4:30:22 PM

supernova party!

8/20/2009 4:33:24 PM

^^

I agree the +/- is going to be pretty large, it would just be nice to point to a paper or a calculation.

8/20/2009 4:34:48 PM

^^ I've got the theme song!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZANzRwqgDQY

[Edited on August 20, 2009 at 4:36 PM. Reason : ^]

8/20/2009 4:36:39 PM