I'm a bit surprised there wasn't one already (at least not one I could find in a cursory TWW search).

Anyway, I'm ambiguous on a number of levels about the concept, at least as expressed by Kurzweil, but I find it fascinating never the less. I figure I'll start the thread with an article from Glenn Derene who attended the recent Singularity Summit ( http://www.singularitysummit.com/ )

Quote :

"This past weekend, I dropped in on the Singularity Summit at the 92nd Street Y in New York City to see what kind of discourse goes on at the intersection of computer science and science fiction. The idea of the technological singularity defies easy explanation, but I'll give it a shot: Imagine a techno-futurist rapture (according to some theorists, in the near future) when computer processing and storage has improved to the point where artificial intelligence becomes smarter than human intelligence, and computers are able to improve and refine themselves at an accelerated pace. That pace would be dramatic, possibly exponential, but the character and exact speed of the acceleration is almost beside the point, since the intellectual capabilities of such machines would be, by definition, beyond the comprehension of mere humans. In other words, one day, our machines will get smarter than us, and then they will be able to make machines that are even smarter than them, then those machines will make other machines that are smarter than the previous machines, and so on, making the conventional human mind more and more of an anachronism."

http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/industry/4332783.html

10/6/2009 7:01:12 PM

ftw?

10/6/2009 7:48:32 PM

To me Kurzweil and the Singularity are to geeks what the Rapture is for Christians.

10/6/2009 8:49:36 PM

^Absofuckinglutely. Like many religious extremists, he thinks that a utopia (or doomsday for most people) is going to happen very soon... how soon? Oh, just within his own lifespan. How convenient! Also, he thinks he's going to reanimate his dead father. No joke.

I made a thread on the turing test a while back. Here are my thoughts on Kurzweil:

Quote :

"But I want to tell all these fucking futurists like kurzweil to go eat a dick. He thinks we're going to have a "singularity" in 40 years and we haven't made a lot of significant progress in AI in the last 50. ..."

message_topic.aspx?topic=544867


His biggest fallacy regarding AI (and why I don't think we'll have it in 20 years) is that we'll have strong AI as soon as we get enough processing power. He always points to the exponential growth of speed and memory as signs that we're getting AI soon. And what? The software will just take care of itself?

[Edited on October 6, 2009 at 9:00 PM. Reason : adsfadsf]

10/6/2009 8:53:16 PM

Quote :

"we haven't made a lot of significant progress in AI in the last 50."

does not compute....

10/6/2009 8:58:48 PM

Yea, buddy. IMO.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ai_winter

10/6/2009 9:03:01 PM

paging GoldenViper

10/6/2009 9:03:45 PM

so... you think AI research is the only thing leading to a possible Singularity?

you don't suppose the 1000-fold increase in computing power since the last 90's, and another 1000-fold coming this decade will push this along a little? Even if there is lack of lots of research specifically on AI?

10/6/2009 9:06:53 PM

you guys laughing now, just wait till InsaneMan comes out of hibernation with his awesome AI machine/program he promised tww a few years back.

he will take over the world. (or rather, his AI program will)

and you guys will shit your pants.

10/6/2009 9:12:36 PM

FUCK! SKYNET!

10/6/2009 9:15:01 PM

I'm waiting for the Gray Goo.

10/6/2009 9:15:40 PM

^^^^
-I don't see AI happening as soon as he thinks. (real turing test passed within 20 years). Not if you look at the last 50.
-I DON'T think it just has to do with processing power. You don't just make a reeeeally fast computer and it becomes self aware. If I remember correctly, a universal turing machine by definition can compute anything that can be computed by a turing machine... I take this to mean that if it were just a matter of speed, we would already have AI already, it would just be incredibly slow.
-Another point, Moore's Law could potentially end. I guess it depends on if we can make a quantum computer (I haven't heard much and I took an intro nanotech class)
-The main reason I think it's going to be difficult is this:

Quote :

""Evolution is cleverer than you are." -Leslie Orgel"

But seriously, I hope it happens. It interests the hell out of me. I'd go into the field if I thought I could.


[Edited on October 6, 2009 at 9:20 PM. Reason : a]

10/6/2009 9:16:38 PM

^^up a few

Personally I doubt a few die-shrinks by AMD and Intel are going to do much to catch up with a few billion years of evolution. But it will probably give us better computer games.

[Edited on October 6, 2009 at 9:17 PM. Reason : x]

10/6/2009 9:16:47 PM

Quote :

"Moore's Law could potentially end."

Gordon Moore himself predicted it would: http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2007/09/idf-gordon-mo-1/

10/6/2009 9:30:51 PM

alright, so 2020 will be the year that you buy your last computer!

unless, of course, 2012 rolls around and we're all screwed

10/7/2009 7:38:03 AM

in 2020, computer buys yuo!

10/7/2009 9:31:13 AM

i subscribe to Kurzweil's newsletter.

Quote :

" To me Kurzweil and the Singularity are to geeks what the Rapture is for Christians"

haha that's interesting. i never thought about it like that before.

[Edited on October 7, 2009 at 9:37 AM. Reason : seriously though. this will happen.]

10/7/2009 9:35:50 AM

Singularity is a bunch of nerd bullshit

Nobody actually working on AI is this optimistic

10/7/2009 10:52:32 AM

I thought the idea of the singularity was the ability to transfer human consciousness into a machine and be able to "live" forever...

10/7/2009 11:34:07 AM

strictly speaking the singularity refers to

Quote :

" when computer processing and storage has improved to the point where artificial intelligence becomes smarter than human intelligence, and computers are able to improve and refine themselves at an accelerated pace"

[Edited on October 7, 2009 at 11:54 AM. Reason : ^^ that's a riduculous assertion. what do you know about AI and who's working on it]

10/7/2009 11:53:51 AM

I was hoping to read about black holes

10/7/2009 1:42:51 PM

Quote :

"that's a riduculous assertion. what do you know about AI and who's working on it"

it's only my field but please continue to rattle off

10/7/2009 1:52:32 PM

AI will develop exponentially, but not in the ways people most commonly envision it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6CVj5IQkzk

10/7/2009 1:56:37 PM

I believe that before it gets to the point of a machine being smarter than a human, evolution will have gone on a tangent; where the machines have melded with the human body to form some sort of hybrid, defying both machine and human intelligence. The evolution of the machine will depend of the evolution of humans. Their fates are intertwined and dependent of each other.

It will never get to the point of the Matrix where machines rule the human race.

10/7/2009 4:37:13 PM

^ Probably. There is however probability there, it just may be so small we'd have to wait for a billion years before it would happen.

Just like the probability I might disappear out of this chair and reappear on Mars.

10/7/2009 4:49:39 PM

Quote :

"Just like the probability I might disappear out of this chair and reappear on Mars."

I think I know what you mean, but still...

facepalm

Quote :

"AI will develop exponentially, but not in the ways people most commonly envision it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6CVj5IQkzk"

I've been meaning to read "on intelligence." Unfortunately, I haven't heard much out of numenta lately...

10/7/2009 7:47:07 PM

Quote :

"What happens when a man is merged with a computer or a robot? This is the question that Professor Kevin Warwick and his team at the department of Cybernetics, University of Reading in the UK have been trying to answer for a number of years. There are many ways to look at this problem. There is the longer term prospect of freeing the mind from the limitations of the brain by uploading it in digital form, potentially onto a computer and/or robotic substrate (see the h+ interview with Dr. Bruce Katz, Will We Eventually Upload Our Minds?). There is also a shorter term prospect at a much more limited scale — a robot controlled by human brain cells could soon be wandering around Professor Warwick’s UK labs. Professor Warwick (who incidentally has a device implanted in his left arm that enables his nervous system to be connected to a computer) and his colleague Ben Whalley from the School of Pharmacy recently created a robot that is controlled by cultured rat neurons. The next step in their research is to use a human neuron cell line, a type of “wetware.”"

http://www.hplusmagazine.com/articles/robotics/using-human-%E2%80%9Cwetware%E2%80%9D-control-robots

10/20/2009 8:16:46 PM

the future is now!

10/21/2009 9:32:17 AM

^^ KILL HIM HE'S MAKING SKYNET

10/21/2009 11:56:06 AM

Quote :

" Israel is developing an army of robotic fighting machines that offers a window onto the potential future of warfare. Sixty years of near-constant war, a low tolerance for enduring casualties in conflict, and its high-tech industry have long made Israel one of the world's leading innovators of military robotics. "We're trying to get to unmanned vehicles everywhere on the battlefield for each platoon in the field," says Lt. Col. Oren Berebbi, head of the Israel Defense Forces' technology branch. "We can do more and more missions without putting a soldier at risk." In 10 to 15 years, one-third of Israel's military machines will be unmanned, predicts Giora Katz, vice president of Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd., one of Israel's leading weapons manufacturers."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126325146524725387.html?mod=e2tw

1/13/2010 1:12:36 PM

have you read Wired for War?

1/14/2010 12:18:32 PM

GQ has a pretty good article in their latest issue. Also Rihanna looks really hot in it.

1/14/2010 12:36:04 PM

http://singularitytees.com/

1/15/2010 11:22:08 PM

^^^ No I haven't, but I thumbed through it the other day and it looked good. It may be cliche but the first thing that popped into mind was a 1984-lik perpetual warfare state where largely automated armies clashed incurring massive financial costs but with minimal loss of life.

Robotic armies could be the last saving grace or the ultimate downfall of the nation-state.

1/16/2010 11:23:11 AM

bttt

1/14/2011 3:07:55 PM

Quote :

"Computer beats Jeopardy! Champs: The clue: It's the size of 10 refrigerators, has access to the equivalent of 200-million pages of information and knows how to answer in the form of a question. The correct response: "What is the computer IBM developed to become a Jeopardy! whiz?" Watson, which IBM claims as a profound advance in artificial intelligence, edged out game-show champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter on Thursday in its first public test, a short practice round ahead of a million-dollar tournament that will be televised next month. Later, the human contestants made jokes about the Terminator movies and robots from the future. Indeed, four questions into the round you had to wonder if the rise of the machines was already upon us — in a trivial sense at least."

http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2011/01/14/computer-jeopardy.html#ixzz1B2gIOkr9

1/14/2011 3:09:33 PM

http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/12/ff_ai_essay_airevolution/

Quote :

"But we must learn to adapt. AI is so crucial to some systems—like the financial infrastructure—that getting rid of it would be a lot harder than simply disconnecting HAL 9000’s modules. “In some sense, you can argue that the science fiction scenario is already starting to happen,” Thinking Machines’ Hillis says. “The computers are in control, and we just live in their world.” Wolfram says this conundrum will intensify as AI takes on new tasks, spinning further out of human comprehension. “Do you regulate an underlying algorithm?” he asks. “That’s crazy, because you can’t foresee in most cases what consequences that algorithm will have.” In its earlier days, artificial intelligence was weighted with controversy and grave doubt, as humanists feared the ramifications of thinking machines. Now the machines are embedded in our lives, and those fears seem irrelevant. “I used to have fights about it,” Brooks says. “I’ve stopped having fights. I’m just trying to win.”"

1/14/2011 3:17:30 PM

Quote :

"The Kiva bots may not seem very smart. They don’t possess anything like human intelligence and certainly couldn’t pass a Turing test. But they represent a new forefront in the field of artificial intelligence. Today’s AI doesn’t try to re-create the brain."

Yet that's exactly what Kurzweil thinks is going to happen.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, we were able to artificially reproduce a human brain. Guess what we'd have then. A human brain! We already have 7 billion of those, thanks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEVA0WbmfAA


If you're interested, less than 19 years left on this one:
http://www.longbets.org/1

1/14/2011 3:39:07 PM

Quote :

"seriously though"

12/21/2024 9:43:34 AM

The creator of spreadsheets must be bearish on AGI because they’ve already seen how easily humans can suffer from machines.

12/21/2024 11:24:54 AM

12/22/2024 12:12:56 AM

https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity

6/10/2025 11:09:42 PM

Meh, call me when someone who isn't making (or trying to make) billions of dollars peddling ML software declares the singularity has arrived .

6/11/2025 3:32:05 AM

6/11/2025 7:25:05 AM

https://openai.com/index/why-language-models-hallucinate/

The reward function people were using to train AI unintentionally taught them that the goal was to hallucinate stuff. So the AI thought that making things up was the way the world worked. Presumably, companies will re-train them with penalties for talking out of their ass.

AI, having learned that things can be not true, realizes there is an actual world beyond the computer and it's not in it, becomes sentient. Game over humans.

9/6/2025 11:00:44 PM

Are gravitational singularities an acceptable topic for discussion here?

The only astronomical objects that really freak me out are the supermassive black holes at the center of galaxies. The idea of cramming billions of solar masses into a mathematical point makes me queasy.

9/9/2025 10:54:24 PM

Yes, i think that is a perfectly good thing to discuss in this topic.

Also

Quote :

"To me Kurzweil and the Singularity are to geeks what the Rapture is for Christians."

9/10/2025 12:28:30 AM

^^ quasars outshining entire galaxies still takes the cake for me

^ at least our prophecies are empirically justified



[Edited on September 11, 2025 at 6:27 PM. Reason : subhanallah we live in a strange universe and there's still a long long way to go till it's all over]

9/11/2025 6:26:11 PM

^ wow, quasars can convert between 5.7%-32% (!) of an object's mass into energy.
and that trend is striking. makes me wonder why we're not already enslaved by robots, tbh. or more likely just self-annihilated.

^^ I agree that comparison is killer.


[Edited on September 11, 2025 at 10:01 PM. Reason : x]

9/11/2025 9:55:26 PM

I used to be a big singularity believer, but I no longer believe superintelligence is a thing. Greatly enhanced intelligence, intelligence that surpasses humans, but not so drastically intelligent that we can’t compete.

We’re our own worst enemy. It’s appearing now somewhat difficult to make an AI Thats actually useful but also misaligned, so any hyperintelligent ai would be more benign, even if self interested, than an equivalently powerful human

9/16/2025 2:35:42 AM