theDuke866
All American
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^^^ Well, plenty of VFR traffic out there, for one thing. Also, haven't you ever worked with strictly procedural control? I've seen a couple instances of that getting screwed up, both in the States and in Iraq (ESPECIALLY in Iraq). Even under positive RADAR control, how many times have you seen ATC fuck something away? Can you count them with all of your fingers and toes? They're pretty good, but they fuck up just like everyone else.
^^, ^^^ ...and most aircraft don't have TCAS. The Prowler doesn't, for example. Yeah, I'm sure P3s likely do, and I'm guessing that a Herc might. I'll pretty much guarantee that the Cobra doesn't.
When you have TCAS and do most of your flying straight & level at a couple hundred knots, that's one thing (although still can have a midair). With no TCAS, maneuvering flight (sometimes at low altitude), section/division flight, or especially doing ACM of any sort, it ups the odds that much more.
Hell, just a couple of hours ago, I exited a MOA into a VFR corridor, and saw a light at my 5 o'clock, maybe a half-mile, co-altitude, and hot. I think it was probably a Hornet, and so hopefully he had us on his RADAR, but who knows. We had 4 dudes in our jet, flying on goggles, and STILL didn't see this until it was CLOSE.
I had a near midair in flight school one time coming into the VFR course rules at NAS Pensacola...I was part of a section of T-2s, and a section of T-6s got into the same piece of sky as us somehow...it was like a fleur de lis.
I've seen plenty of cropdusters, helos, and low-flying civil aircraft on low-level VR routes. Had what probably wouldn't technically qualify as a near-midair with a helo once, but it was certainly close enough to make us all very uneasy. We strive to avoid airfields by a few miles when on those routes, but still, an airplane taking off or landing from some small airport could easily be preoccupied and not see us, and we could be flying along at 420 (or 480...or 540 knots), maneuvering, possibly in section (with wing spending a lot of his time looking at lead), doing tac-turns or whatever else. It could totally happen.
Midairs aren't that uncommon in the fighter world during ACM, either (I can think of F-15s not too long ago, and then those two Vipers off of SC just about a week ago)--2+ airplanes deliberately doing everything they can to point themselves at each other. They go to the merge, and although they have training rules in place to help establish a "bubble", neither of them wants to give up any more space than the rules require--they want to make a close pass, and then if they're going to turn across the other guy's tail, they do it as hard as possible, as early as they can, to keep from giving up any turning room.
Guns kills? They're already in close, and then have to pull lead on their opponent. Especially if it's a high-angle snapshot, that again gives an opportunity for two planes to occupy the same space.
I bet there's at least one instance per year of a wingman hitting his lead, probably usually while trying to join up at night.
Also, you can be damn near retarded and get your private pilot's license--and on top of that, plenty of those guys only fly a few times per year. How many dumbass things have you seen Joe Cessna Pilot do? Hell, I came pretty close to landing on the wrong runway one time on my first solo cross country (as a student civilian pilot). The tower gave me something nonstandard, and my little SA bubble collapsed, haha (thankfully it was a little Class-D field, and they didn't really care).
All in all, two airliners hitting each other in Class-A airspace? Yeah, the odds are almost zero...but there are plenty of other ways that midairs are not far-fetched at all.  10/31/2009 3:34:35 AM
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