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 Message Boards » » ***The Slave Famous $100 NFL Playoff Challenge*** Page 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 ... 17, Prev Next  
dgspencer
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Cincinnati
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Green Bay

1/5/2010 2:29:12 PM

JT3bucky
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22614 Posts
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Cincy
Philly
Baltimore
Arizona(LETS GO CARDINALS!!!!)

1/5/2010 2:38:39 PM

FatTony
All American
1759 Posts
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Jets
Dallas
Baltimore
Arizona

1/5/2010 3:20:37 PM

Zel
Sa Da Tay
2072 Posts
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Jets
Philly
New England
Greenbay

1/5/2010 3:29:00 PM

craptastic
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6110 Posts
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CIN
PHI
NE
ARI

1/5/2010 4:06:15 PM

TreeTwista10
R Tree Ermey
139741 Posts
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Cincinnati
Philly
New England
Green Bay

AFC favorites, NFC dogs

1/5/2010 7:34:12 PM

rallydurham
Suspended
11317 Posts
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Man, I'll have to admit I haven't really watched NFL this year but I love playoff betting so I'll take a shot at this more for the lore of 11-0 than the $100 bucks.

This thread is boring with just picks. If you want to gamble you have to think like someone who needs money and then do the opposite. If i looked at these games at face value I would select NYJ, Philly, Balt, and Ari in a heartbeat. But when I analyze my selections I almost completely change my mind.


1) The Jets seem to have a lot of heart and Cincy is a team that has no playoff success in most of our lifetimes. The Ickey Shuffle is something 5th graders did when I was in 1st grade. New York also has a lot heavier bettors than Cincy has because no one in Ohio has a job. There HAS to be a reason Cincy is favored even though no one respects them. Admittedly, I haven't seen them play a single game all season except for the one they lost in week one on a 80 yard tipped pass haha... but I would almost wager my life on Cincy in this game. Oh yeah I just realized talented, veteran QB vs a rookie. The Jets have no shot.

2) This is the toughest pick for me. I thought Dallas sucked all season and Philly was my favorite to win the NFC until last week. Philly +3.5 seems like such a megacockface bet that I have to slap my nuts against my leg until they turn blue. Here's what I think, I think Dallas either beats the dogshit out of them where the -10 line at something like +290 looks good or Philly beats them straight up for the +200 bet to hit. Fuck. The line is just too fishy, I will take Dallas -3.5 for the sake of this contest even though everything in my body tells me to take Philly. This is the ultimate contrarian play for me.

3) I think Ray Rice is fucking awesome. The only problem is Flacco sucks this year and can't make plays. If they had Welker I would take NE -6.5 but without him I am hesitant. Oh well, it's gonna be fucking cold and the Patriots will figure out a way to blow them out. NE is the most obvious play on the board to me since they'll probably win by 20.

4) Upset special. There is pretty heavy action on the Packers and Vegas has been very responsive which typically indicates a lack of confidence. However, points move easy under three especially in the playoffs so you can't overrate the movement. There is literally no precedent for how a Super Bowl runner-up performs in the playoffs because they never make it this far. Then again most teams don't play in a conference with three middle school girl's teams... In my heart I liked Arizona before I saw the line and then my buddy at work told me GB +2 was an incredible bet.... which means I have to take Arizona -2.5 even though the real line is like -1 now. Basically, I like Arizona to pull through, but I don't love giving up the extra 1.5 points...

1/5/2010 8:05:30 PM

FIVE O
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1525 Posts
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jets
cowboys
patriots
packers

1/5/2010 8:07:37 PM

rwoody
Save TWW
26635 Posts
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cincy
philly
balt
zona

i actually wanted to take every road dog, but it seems too unlikely

1/5/2010 9:01:17 PM

Darb5000
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1294 Posts
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Cincinnati
Dallas
Baltimore
Green Bay

1/5/2010 9:14:12 PM

HUR
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17732 Posts
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Cincinnati
Philly
New England
Green Bay

Quote :
"The Philly picks have to just be out of hatred for Dallas.

"


I respond...

Quote :
"awareness of the last 14 years
"


&

Philly has been hot the 2nd half of the season not counting the cowboys game

&

I think they are after blood after losing last weekend.

1/5/2010 9:28:28 PM

TreeTwista10
R Tree Ermey
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lets see, who is a better coach between Andy Reid and Wade Phillips

HMMMMMMMMM

1/5/2010 9:29:31 PM

skokiaan
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shit, just realized i picked dallas to win a playoff game

1/5/2010 9:36:20 PM

TreeTwista10
R Tree Ermey
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well they've certainly looked better this december than any december in the last 10 years or so...but still...Reid is arguably a top 3 coach in the NFL...phillips is just jerry jones' bitch...plus i hate dallas

1/5/2010 9:38:00 PM

rwoody
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Quote :
"Reid is arguably a top 3 coach in the NFL"


until you get to the last 4 minutes of a close game, then he is arguably bottom 3

1/5/2010 9:40:52 PM

TreeTwista10
R Tree Ermey
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look at the last 10 years as a whole

I'd put Belichik first...probably put Reid 2nd...what does he have, 5 conference title games?

1/5/2010 9:44:02 PM

rwoody
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notice how i didnt argue your point?

notice how you didnt argue mine?

(lets not hijack this thread though)

1/5/2010 9:48:16 PM

Slave Famous
Become Wrath
34074 Posts
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Belichick
Fisher
Reid

in that order

I think 10 coaches could have had similar success to Dungy with Peyton at the helm; see Caldwell, Jim

1/5/2010 9:48:58 PM

TreeTwista10
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just let it be known, that I hate the Dallas Cowboys

1/5/2010 9:50:07 PM

Biofreak70
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33196 Posts
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cincy
dallas
new england
green bay

1/6/2010 12:35:46 PM

1985
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2056 Posts
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jets
cowboys
pats
cards

1/6/2010 12:42:56 PM

dbmcknight
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4030 Posts
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Cincinnati
Philadelphia
New England
Arizona

1/6/2010 12:45:45 PM

Bweez
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10849 Posts
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Jets
'boys
ravens
cards

1/6/2010 12:50:20 PM

spydyrwyr
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3021 Posts
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Cincinnati
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Green Bay

1/6/2010 1:30:05 PM

dweedle
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77120 Posts
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GERONIMO....

Bengals
Eagles
Ravens
Packers

1/7/2010 12:51:43 AM

federal
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2608 Posts
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cinci
philly
ravens
gb

1/7/2010 1:00:34 AM

IMStoned420
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15485 Posts
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Cincinatti
Dallas
Baltimore
Green Bay

1/7/2010 1:09:41 AM

Turnip
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5375 Posts
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Jets
Cowboys
Ravens
Packers

1/7/2010 4:14:15 AM

ncstatepimp
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1781 Posts
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Jets
Philadelphia
New England
Green Bay

1/7/2010 8:05:15 AM

daz84
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2258 Posts
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Jets
Dallas
Baltimore
Green Bay

1/7/2010 8:43:41 AM

EZ2Score21
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Well, since I have less than 1,000 posts, I guess I'll come in with amateur status...

(AMATEUR)
Bengals
Cowboys
Patriots
Packers

1/7/2010 9:52:37 AM

Slave Famous
Become Wrath
34074 Posts
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if you can get to 1000 by kickoff Saturday, you're eligible for the prize

1/7/2010 9:53:59 AM

stixman
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3607 Posts
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Cincy
Dallas
New England
Green Bay

1/7/2010 10:03:55 AM

dweedle
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i got bored last night and started tallying up everyone's picks into a spreadsheet ... if you want to use it .. go for it ...if not .... well i guess i wasted a few minutes

(converted to 97-2003 .xls in case the plebes dont have 2007 yet)
http://www4.ncsu.edu/~jdcollie/SF-100dollars.xls

ill continue to update till it's over ... should be easy to eliminate people, just delete all the columns with losing teams and then whoever's sum on the right isn't 4, is a loser of the challenge

1/7/2010 11:28:09 AM

Slave Famous
Become Wrath
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I knew I kept you around for something

1/7/2010 11:35:17 AM

dweedle
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current TWW stats (pick percentages)

NYJ	39.3
CIN 60.7

PHI 49.2
DAL 50.8

BAL 55.7
NE 44.3

GB 77.0
ARI 23.0


[Edited on January 7, 2010 at 11:48 AM. Reason : ]

1/7/2010 11:47:25 AM

Slave Famous
Become Wrath
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Based on the 6.25% chance that someone guessing at random gets all 4 games this week

Extrapolate that based on the number of participants to see how many should make the next week

Then take 6.25% of those people

Then take 25% percent of those people

Then take 50% of those people

and we have the predicted number of winners

1/7/2010 11:50:28 AM

CalledToArms
All American
21943 Posts
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Bengals
Eagles
Ravens
Packers

1/7/2010 12:01:42 PM

thenate99
All American
1633 Posts
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Cincinnati
Dallas
New England
Green Bay

1/7/2010 12:14:10 PM

dweedle
All American
77120 Posts
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i say if the cardinals win, no one wins the challenge



[Edited on January 7, 2010 at 12:19 PM. Reason : asdf]

1/7/2010 12:17:20 PM

tpw122983
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400 Posts
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NE, Philly, NYJ, AZ

1/7/2010 1:25:34 PM

tpw122983
Veteran
400 Posts
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Quote :
"
Based on the 6.25% chance that someone guessing at random gets all 4 games this week

Extrapolate that based on the number of participants to see how many should make the next week

Then take 6.25% of those people

Then take 25% percent of those people

Then take 50% of those people

and we have the predicted number of winners"



(n).5^11

1/7/2010 1:34:03 PM

TreeTwista10
R Tree Ermey
139741 Posts
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rule #3

1/7/2010 1:40:29 PM

Budiss
All American
2348 Posts
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Cinci
Ravens
Philly
Ari

1/7/2010 2:02:32 PM

AC Slater
All American
9276 Posts
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Jets
Eagles
Ravens
Cards

[Edited on January 8, 2010 at 5:30 PM. Reason : eagles]

1/8/2010 5:30:16 PM

Slave Famous
Become Wrath
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Yeah get your pics in people

$100 is like a day's pay for some of you

1/8/2010 5:34:50 PM

dweedle
All American
77120 Posts
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what time's the first game

4:30pm tomorrow, I'll update that spreadsheet again

[Edited on January 8, 2010 at 5:45 PM. Reason : ]

1/8/2010 5:37:33 PM

Ribs
All American
10628 Posts
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Jets
Eagles
Baltimore
Arizona

1/8/2010 5:49:03 PM

dweedle
All American
77120 Posts
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i feel like i hate my picks but can't bring myself to change them

1/8/2010 5:49:20 PM

AC Slater
All American
9276 Posts
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i dont really like mine cause I just faded those percentages you put up


figured why not

1/8/2010 5:51:01 PM

 Message Boards » Sports Talk » ***The Slave Famous $100 NFL Playoff Challenge*** Page 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 ... 17, Prev Next  
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