I have a bet, that I may end up losing, where I pay $40 if Apple sells more than 6 million from the first year of the release (I get $40 below).

The pre-orders dont concern me as much because I honestly think if someone wants this, they have probably pre-ordered, and the actual orders post release are going to fall substancially (yeah, I could be wrong). I just don't understand why this is the cat's meow.

I at least saw some value in the 3G iphone (I hated the idea of the 2G), but I just don't see the value in this thing... A weak ass gadget with a fancy touchscreen that doesnt even count as a computer. And the people that e-read are so small, that the market for that just isnt that big to put up the numbers I am hearing.

So, lacking a poll, how many of you plan on buying or not buying this thing?


[Edited on March 29, 2010 at 3:58 PM. Reason : .]

3/29/2010 3:56:12 PM

I have pre-ordered 5,999,999 units.

3/29/2010 4:01:28 PM

I wouldn't, when I can buy 13" dual core laptop (not a netbook, an actual laptop) for 40% less.

Or, hell, I can buy a dual-core netbook for $500.

3/29/2010 4:03:30 PM

I was going to buy one, but I think i've been convinced to buy a pair of designer jeans instead.


Seriously, I don't see myself buying one. If someone were to buy me one as a gift, I'd gladly use it because I like gadgets. But I have a long list of other things I'd rather spend the money on, so I ain't buying one.

I think it'll sell really well and apple will make a fortune off of it.

6 million units in the first year though? ehhhh... maybe. I'd probably take the under on that if I was betting.

3/29/2010 4:18:13 PM

Its hard to be an early adopter with apple. THey tend to screw you.

Early Iphone adopters can concur. Im sure they could have put in a camera, have the layout for it with the current build, but held off for the second generation, with double the memory, and less money.

3/29/2010 4:23:04 PM

I think a large market of people who buy this thing consume more than they create on their pc's. They wake up, read their email and relevant news stories on their iphone or mobile device and go through the day filling in the gaps by consuming media. I know I could do the same thing on a laptop but folks want it easier. I don't even own a laptop because all my mobile needs are met with my iphone, so I would assume there are other people out there like me.

I am not buying one, yet. I am firm believer that it takes a few generations of a gadget to get the bugs worked out and the purpose to truly be seen. Who would of thought when we watched the iphone 2g presentation 3 years ago that the app store(not even created yet) would have changed the game as it has.

3/29/2010 4:26:29 PM

I realize this thread is about the iPad which I don't have one but hear me out...

A thread already exists. /message_topic.aspx?topic=584556

Quote :

" Its hard to be an early adopter with apple. THey tend to screw you. Early Iphone adopters can concur."

Its been a while, but remind me again how did Apple screw us early adopters with the iPhone?

Quote :

"6 million units in the first year though? ehhhh... maybe. I'd probably take the under on that if I was betting."

You'd be hard pressed to find a betting man bet over 6 mil. Thats a shit ton of product for something that is a niche.

[Edited on March 29, 2010 at 4:31 PM. Reason : .]

3/29/2010 4:27:38 PM

^ Less than a year after release, apple released a new version with across the board better specs all for $100 less than it cost before. Because of initial supply issues, most iPhone owners only had their phones for a couple of months.

3/29/2010 4:35:13 PM

the first was out of contract, though.

the second stuck you with a 2 year contract and i believe a $10/month increase on your bill

3/29/2010 4:37:44 PM

Quote :

"^ Less than a year after release, apple released a new version with across the board better specs all for $100 less than it cost before. Because of initial supply issues, most iPhone owners only had their phones for a couple of months."

How is this screwing early adopters?

1) they got some of their money back
2) every year a new iPhone with much better specs is released

Also, it was about a year later not really less than a year.

People who want the latest and greatest don't care and will continue to buy the newest version.
People who don't care stick with what they have anyway.

Are you saying Apple should not release something better every year or that apple should not have released a phone until it had every feature possible in the first release?

This isn't just Apple btw...but more or less any consumer product. But I guess because its apple its ok to make a fuss about it. I never understood people who think like that.

[Edited on March 29, 2010 at 4:41 PM. Reason : .]

3/29/2010 4:37:45 PM

i'll probably never say this again

but i agree with Golovko

3/29/2010 4:41:04 PM

I would rather have a netbook with a touchscreen. Cheaper and more functional.

3/29/2010 4:51:58 PM

I didnt find the previous thread due to the title (I did a search)

3/29/2010 4:53:39 PM

do not want

3/29/2010 4:55:10 PM

I think the 6 million units makes this a good bet.

Will it sell? Absolutely. Will it sell 6 million units in year 1? HIGHLY doubtful.

Apple sells somewhere around 8 million TOTAL COMPUTERS per year (laptops and desktops). To say the iPad, which is essentially their entry level computer offering, will increase volume 80% is a pretty optimistic outlook.

There's tons of data surrounding consumer pricepoints and market scale. All of it basically says that unless you get under the perceived "$200" barrier, you will not reach a commodity market scale.

Being $500+ bucks puts this out of reach for a number of market demographics, which is going to severely limit volume, especially year 1.

I'd bank on them selling 1-2 million of these things this year. 3.5 million would be a healthy internal goal for Apple to be pleased about. 5 million would be a huge surprise. 6 is bordering on ridiculous for a 500 dollar device.

Look at the PS3 and Xbox 360 (both also ostensibly consumer entertainment luxuries). The PS3 has sold ~9 million units in the US in 4 years. And when it was priced at 500+ bucks, it's volume was terrible. Same for the 360, although less extreme. When the 360 Arcade came out for $199, their volume increased enormously.

3/29/2010 6:57:56 PM

Quote :

"Its been a while, but remind me again how did Apple screw us early adopters with the iPhone?"

I bought a first gen 16GB iPhone the day it came out. It cost me $500. 4 months later Apple released the 3G which came with GPS and 3G for $200-$300 less than I had paid.

I love the iPhone and I can almost convince myself that it was worth it to buy early, but if I could go back in time and tell myself the deal, there's almost no way I wouldn't have waited.

Then again convening gloveco that Apple can do something imperfect is like trying to convince a brick wall that it's hard.

3/29/2010 7:07:34 PM

Quote :

"I think the 6 million units makes this a good bet."

How is this a good bet? Maybe HALF that if not 1/3 that would make it a good realistic bet. But 6 million? thats insane.

Quote :

" I love the iPhone and I can almost convince myself that it was worth it to buy early, but if I could go back in time and tell myself the deal, there's almost no way I wouldn't have waited. "

Correct me if I'm wrong here but isn't it normal that new/better models are released over time? I can't think of anything short of a failed or discontinued product where buying it one year means you won't have something better to replace it the following year. Whether its a justified purchase to upgrade is another story.

You would think computer 'nerds' would understand this concept better than most but I guess I'm alone here.

[Edited on March 29, 2010 at 7:38 PM. Reason : .]

3/29/2010 7:29:28 PM

^taking the under on 6 million units makes this a good bet. a bit of reading comprehension with the rest of Noen's post would have made you realize what he was talking about.

3/29/2010 8:45:57 PM

Releasing newer versions of things is a given, of course. But releasing/refreshing a product line in February, and then releasing a better version that sells for half the price in June? You can pretend like that's normal all you want, but the bottom line is that's extreme, no matter how you look at it. And now it's fairly common knowledge that Apple is going to release a new phone every year. At the time, with only one generation to go on it was anybody's guess how long their product cycle was going to be.

3/29/2010 8:47:26 PM

Quote :

"^taking the under on 6 million units makes this a good bet. a bit of reading comprehension with the rest of Noen's post would have made you realize what he was talking about."

the reason why I said what I said is because I did read the rest of his post. My point is its not really a gamble if you are going to draw the line at something so ridiculous like 6 million. Make the bet more interesting and pick a more realistic number.

Just saying, it would make things more interesting if at least someone was on the other side

[Edited on March 29, 2010 at 8:51 PM. Reason : .]

3/29/2010 8:50:42 PM

the majority of executives in america are going to own one of these
it's going to be the de-facto standard of viewing dashboards and the like

3/29/2010 9:15:21 PM

I don't care about the proposition, but this thing is going to replace or complement most home computing that most users do.

Sit on the couch, browse the internet. That's the whole country. No one likes using a laptop to browse the internet.
The existing tablet pc/netbook market will be completely sidestepped because it is a small market of whiny, high-maintenance cheapskates who are unprofitable.

The new market will be the average consumer who doesn't care about computers -- they just want appliance-like access to the internet, and they will pay a premium for simplicity. Making everyday things dead simple is worth billions of dollars, as Apple has proven time and time again.

3/29/2010 9:22:20 PM

Does OSX support Multitouch now? I googled, but the only thing I found was a 2 year old hack from a 3rd party. If they released a VNC app that allowed for full screen control of my mac mini and OSX supported such a thing, and if Wireless N supported a framerate decent enough to watch videos on (those are a lot of ifs I know) I would buy one in an instant.

3/29/2010 9:31:32 PM

i want one, for the majority of the stuff I do the ipad would be great. I like a BIG monitor for doing stuff, bigger than a laptop should have, but for browsing heck yeah I can tdub on a ipad.

3/29/2010 9:40:34 PM

^^ sorta, if you count the recent trackpads on their laptops, and the magic mouse

3/29/2010 9:55:50 PM

Well, I knew that. But that's not exactly what I meant by multitouch.

3/29/2010 10:12:05 PM

i'd love to have one. too cheap to buy it though

[Edited on March 29, 2010 at 10:15 PM. Reason : needs a few more features i want anyway]

3/29/2010 10:15:27 PM

if it ran Mac OS X instead of the iPhone OS then hell yes, but as it stands nope

3/29/2010 11:41:57 PM

The original iPhone was not subsidized, the next iPhone was NOT "cheaper", it was actually more expensive if you consider the $10 price increase per month that had to accompany your purchase price.

I agree with the sentiment that this thing is perfect for the majority of people browsing the internet, I may pick one up for mom...

3/30/2010 12:01:27 AM

It's a neat looking web browsing device but Apple can suck it, seriously. I'd never buy this thing because of the DRM, the lack of expandable memory, and the lack of USB without purchasing the hardware addon.

And why the hell would they even make a version of this thing without 3G capability? It seems like web-access regardless of proximity to a wifi network would be priority one for a device whose primary function is web browsing.

3/30/2010 12:09:08 AM

my dad is getting one because all he uses his computer for is checking email and web browsing and he wants something really simple and light to just use around the home to do that with... the interface will be much easier than trying to explain how to do shit with Windows over the phone when he is basically computer illiterate outside of a web browser and the third party software he used at work before he retired.

3/30/2010 12:20:01 AM

Quote :

"And why the hell would they even make a version of this thing without 3G capability?"

And see, I can't fathom why anyone would want to buy the 3G version.

So combine our two opinions, and you have your answer on why Apple is making two different versions.

3/30/2010 12:22:23 AM

If the JooJoo delivers on a decent user experience I can't see anyone justifying an iPad.

3/30/2010 12:30:16 AM

maybe if you really wanted to buy a kindle and its like $259... and a few more $$$ doesn't bother you...

but I stand to my point of the iPhone OS sucks balls on this... no app backgrounding, same iPhone shit all over again... just another device that I will want to Jailbreak 3 minutes after receiving, im tired of paying the Apple tax for there inability to deliver a correct solution the first time. they missed the boat with this product, and I feel that its something that everyone will want to see and play with, but wont purchase in the end.

I say wait for generation 4 or 5 before considering. Maybe by then it will have all the components that you are paying for now but doesn't! :-)

3/30/2010 12:37:23 AM

^I've gotta believe that the decision to use the iPhone OS had quite a bit to do with the out of the box DRM functionality. I know the OS is light and has solid usability and all that jazz, but being able to remotely control which apps users are allowed to run is a big piece, if not the cornerstone of Apple's business, especially now since Jobs has labeled Apple 'the largest mobile device maker in terms of revenue. '

http://www.defectivebydesign.org is worth a look for any of you interested in putting on a pot of conspiracy stew with me.

3/30/2010 12:59:21 AM

Oh look! Golovko to Apple's rescue again! I bought an iPhone the day the original came out and can't say I ever felt "screwed" but only because I knew what I was getting myself into with Apple's aggressive planned obsolescence. That being said, I still think it's hilarious how big of a wad Golovko's panties get in when anyone suggests that Apple is anything but flawless. I want to believe he's just trolling because surely no one can be that be THAT much a fan boy but if he is trolling he's damn dedicated to the job.

3/30/2010 1:16:22 AM

I own 12,500 shares of AAPL. Of course I'm going to say they're flawless you goon....they've made me a pretty penny. It is my duty to defend.

Quote :

"how big of a wad Golovko's panties get in when anyone suggests that Apple is anything but flawless."

If I recognized your username I'd say I've posted more than my fair share of Apple complaints but sadly I don't so /care. Also, you've just agreed with what I said yet I'm defending apple? lol...my point of view isn't apple specific, pretty much any tech related product. But again, I don't know you so for all I know you're just slow.

[Edited on March 30, 2010 at 1:47 AM. Reason : .]

3/30/2010 1:32:45 AM

The original iPhone didn't screw anybody, it was just an unsubsidized phone. It's only natural that faster versions with more features came out later, they happened to be subsidized, but total cost of ownership is very comparable.

I think the "Apple screws early adaptors" argument is particularly flawed considering that not only did Apple give a $100 rebate to orig. iPhone purchasers but the current OS -2 generations later- still supports the original device.

I wasn't always a fan of Apple, but as I prefer spending time on activities other than trying to make things work, Apple products make more sense. I'll freely admit that my largest position of a single stock is in AAPL (and has been so since before the original iPhone was even announced).

3/30/2010 2:06:18 AM

Ahmet, you're such a fanboy!

/first

3/30/2010 2:08:16 AM

Quote :

"maybe if you really wanted to buy a kindle and its like $259... and a few more $$$ doesn't bother you... but I stand to my point of the iPhone OS sucks balls on this... no app backgrounding, same iPhone shit all over again... just another device that I will want to Jailbreak 3 minutes after receiving, im tired of paying the Apple tax for there inability to deliver a correct solution the first time. they missed the boat with this product, and I feel that its something that everyone will want to see and play with, but wont purchase in the end. I say wait for generation 4 or 5 before considering. Maybe by then it will have all the components that you are paying for now but doesn't! :-)"

They missed YOUR boat. You are the unprofitable, whiny minority. Everyone else just wants to get work/play done and doesn't give a shit about being penny wise and pound foolish.

3/30/2010 3:22:14 AM

I still can't think of a use for it (for me) that justifies the cost. I feel like to even make the thing half worth it you need the wifi+3G version and the prices on those are just too high for its features imo

3/30/2010 7:56:33 AM

If the wifi only version had the full gps capabilities that the 3g+wifi version would have, then I would consider buying it.

As is, the GPS on the wifi version will be akin to that of the edge iPhone, and the 3g+wifi version will have the full 3GS GPS capabilities. (meaning actual satellite gps hardware).

To me, that is a huge oversight to not have full gps on both versions. Especially now that safari has the location attributes that browsers could employ. Being "somewhat" accurate is not good enough for certain uses.

3/30/2010 8:18:08 AM

Agreed.

3/30/2010 9:12:18 AM

Quote :

"I own 12,500 shares of AAPL."

You own 3 million dollars in apple stock?

3/30/2010 9:14:17 AM

The only reason I want one is because I think the gaming possibilities on it are interesting and I would like to get started testing applications on it.

I see no reason to get a 3G model. I can't see this device being used outside of the home or office.

3/30/2010 9:14:21 AM

I suppose. If it isnt getting any use outside of my home, even though the price is lower (can go wifi instead of 3G) I would feel like I had even less incentive to buy something like this.

With 2 laptops and a desktop in our house as well as data on my phone (remember none of these can get replaced by an ipad), what does the ipad offer around the house that is worth the cost? I do agree that this stuff will take time before people start inventing cool uses for these devices, but right now, what can you think of that justifies that price for a unit around the home? Just gaming?

[Edited on March 30, 2010 at 9:42 AM. Reason : ]

3/30/2010 9:41:57 AM

i can see a huge amount of potential for them but it will take a year or so before hardware and apps are really developed for it, imo.

3/30/2010 9:55:07 AM

While I don't need another "lifestyle device," I'm a fan of the idea of using an iPad as a business tool. I could easily see myself taking one to meetings and interviews, where I could open up documents, take notes, annotate information, etc. I'm pretty eager to see how the iWork apps look and function. That'd be what would seal the deal for me, if I were to buy one. I hate paper and pen note-taking.

3/30/2010 11:11:33 AM

^The problem is currently they aren't allowing pen/paper style note taking with handwriting recognition, which is really the only thing I want.

3/30/2010 11:26:06 AM

yeah that was what i was about to say.. huge problem there for me

although supposedly there are accessories already that will make it possible to write on like a normal tablet..

http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-19512_7-10443415-233.html


[Edited on March 30, 2010 at 11:35 AM. Reason : k thats too big nvm]

3/30/2010 11:31:03 AM