Jayson Werth gets 126 million





What



The



Fuck

12/5/2010 10:28:06 PM

who the fuck taught you how to make threads

12/5/2010 11:06:19 PM

only making $1 million more than derek jeter

12/5/2010 11:18:40 PM

Hey, Adam. Do you mind deferring some of your salary so we can re-sign AJ and Paulie?




Sure thing, coach.

12/5/2010 11:23:43 PM

from jayson stark's twitter:

Quote :

"The #Nationals offer on Werth was so far above everyone else that Boras didn't even ask other interested teams if they wanted to match it."

12/6/2010 12:33:26 AM

Did the Nationals hire Omar Minaya and not tell me about it

12/6/2010 12:35:34 AM

Should be interesting to see what this does to inflate Carl Crawford's value even more

12/6/2010 7:29:05 AM

This thread should be titled Hot Stove 2011 since it applies to the 2011 season. Mets fans suck.

Anyway I saw that Werth contract come across the ticker yesterday and started laughing. GG to the Nats. In a few years, Werth will be about as useful to the Nats as Mike Hampton was to the Braves. LOL at the Stark twitter message.

This thread needs mention of the Adrian Gonzalez trade so I am making it here. GG to the Red Sox, but they'll probably regret it in a couple of years when a couple of those studs are in the bigs with the Padres.

12/6/2010 8:21:50 AM

As a Nats fan I knew we would have to overpay for a decent free agent. I just didn't know we would need to overpay by like $8 million.

But in a way, at least it shows that we are willing to spend some money.

[Edited on December 6, 2010 at 9:58 AM. Reason : .]

12/6/2010 9:54:45 AM

Quote :

"Anyway I saw that Werth contract come across the ticker yesterday and started laughing. GG to the Nats. In a few years, Werth will be about as useful to the Nats as Mike Hampton was to the Braves. LOL at the Stark twitter message."

Only time will tell whether it was an awful deal. He's not worth that kind of money, but the nnats seem to be sending a message here. They're an organization on the rise that isn't afraid to spend money. Plus they're maintaining a good relationship with Scott boras, and that's an extremely powerful ally to have with respect to free agents. If werth can maintain a decent level of production as he ages, it wont be so bad. But obviously his contract will be an albatross if he can't.

Quote :

"This thread needs mention of the Adrian Gonzalez trade so I am making it here. GG to the Red Sox, but they'll probably regret it in a couple of years when a couple of those studs are in the bigs with the Padres."

If by "studs" you mean a project pitcher and an Adam laroche wannabe. I think the sox made out pretty well here, especially considering how well Gonzalez hit playing 81 games at petco and how he'll likely see a jump in offense by moving to fenway

[Edited on December 6, 2010 at 10:46 AM. Reason : .]

12/6/2010 10:38:42 AM

I'm really happy about the Gonzalez deal. Sox have enough young pitching/long term contract pitchers where I feel we can move on without missing Kelly too much. Rizzo is a solid prospect, but not someone I've heard all that much about. I really though the Sox were going to sign Werth and be done with the major moves this offseason aside from the bullpen, but Werth to the Nationals for that much money is crazy.

12/6/2010 10:41:22 AM

I guess they thought...he was Werth it.

12/6/2010 10:41:39 AM

Cardinals signed Lance Berkman, 1 year $8 million. Doesn't make a lick of sense to me. He had a terrible year last year and is in his later 30s. Where the hell is he going to play? Hasn't played OF since 2007. Can a non-Cardinals fan who is not pissed at this explain it to me?

12/6/2010 10:53:28 AM

I just assume Tony larussa demanded it and the FO listened to him because they, like larussa, are a bunch of drooling idiots

The orioles are apparently close to a deal for mark ".198 batting average in 145 games" reynolds that would send David Hernandez to the dbacks. We could use some plus defense at 3b, but his bat probably negates his glove.

[Edited on December 6, 2010 at 11:11 AM. Reason : .]

12/6/2010 10:56:33 AM

^ Reynolds can at least produce some runs. He'll hit 35-40 bombs in the AL East and drive in 100+.

12/6/2010 1:10:27 PM

Yeah. Upon further inspection, his glove usually sucks with the exception of this season. If he can have another year like 09 he'll be pretty valuable. His line from 2010 is retarded

.198/.320/.433

Haha he hit below the mendoza line while managing an OBP 5 points below league average. Pretty amazing. And guess who holds the record for most strikeouts in a season



Mark Reynolds



Guess who holds the record for second most strikeouts in a season




Mark Reynolds




Guess who holds the record for third most strikeouts in a season




Mark Reynolds




Guess who has only played 3 full seasons in the majors





You get the point

12/6/2010 1:42:09 PM

^ and my point is still valid. He'll hit HRs and pick up RBIs, but yeah he's going to strike out a ton and hit .200. I'd still rather have him than some jackass like Chase Headley who will hit 260, with 10 Hrs, and 60 RBIs.

Plus Reynolds is still young, maybe with some with the right coaching he'll become a more complete hitter over time. Regardless the Orioles suck and they might as well take the gamble on him.

12/6/2010 2:29:44 PM

Quote :

"^ and my point is still valid. He'll hit HRs and pick up RBIs, but yeah he's going to strike out a ton and hit .200. I'd still rather have him than some jackass like Chase Headley who will hit 260, with 10 Hrs, and 60 RBIs."

Never set out to invalidate anything you said. Just pointing out the hilarity in the fact that Reynolds holds the records for most Ks in a season in his first 3 years. And comparing him to chase headley is apples to oranges. They're 2 vastly different 3rd basemen. Headley would be a much better fit for a team that doesn't require more pop in their lineup. He's better than Reynolds defensively. And quit using RBIs as an evaluation factor. They're retarded.

Quote :

"Plus Reynolds is still young, maybe with some with the right coaching he'll become a more complete hitter over time. Regardless the Orioles suck and they might as well take the gamble on him."

Eh. He's right around his prime years. Its doubtful he'd ever be anything more than a strike out or hit a home run guy.

12/6/2010 2:46:47 PM

Reynolds also seems to have had a lot of bad luck hitting last year. His BABIP was only .257, so whenever he did make contact he was hitting it right at fielders. His career BABIP is. 323, so he probably stands to rebound next year, but I'm sure wont exactly feast on AL east pitching. Still, not a bad move for the o's. He fills a need and will likely be underpaid for his expected production

12/6/2010 3:47:21 PM

if Chris Davis was good enough to stay in a lineup he would've beaten Reynolds' strikeout record

12/6/2010 5:08:09 PM

Quote :

""To me, that is what Jason Werth should have gotten," Braunecker said. "He is a better player than Matt Holliday.""

Can you even make this argument with a straight face?

12/6/2010 5:09:25 PM

in fairness, Werth is probably a better baseball player than Matt Holliday, when you strictly look at defensive plays in the outfield in clutch situations

12/6/2010 5:10:25 PM

My favorite part is how Werth came up with runners in scoring position 140 times last year, and got 26 hits

12/6/2010 5:12:37 PM

I hope Reynolds can someday fill out the entire top 10 for most Ks in a season

Quote :

"My favorite part is how Werth came up with runners in scoring position 140 times last year, and got 26 hits"

RISP is generally too small of a sample size to be a meaningful stat

And apparently the phillies might try to get Lee back, and Charlie Manuel thinks he can "fix" Jeff francoeur. What a retarded organization

"Hey cliff, remember when we unceremoniously dumped your ass on the mariners? How bout you come back and play for us? Also we wont pay you as much as the Yankees"

They're still better than the orioles





[Edited on December 6, 2010 at 5:26 PM. Reason : .]

12/6/2010 5:21:08 PM

jj putz possibly going to the dbacks. rumor that prince fielder could get sent to the dodgers for james loney and jonathon broxton. not sure how true it is, but god damn that's a terrible deal for the brewers.

12/6/2010 7:36:30 PM

Hasn't Mark Reynolds also committed the most errors among 3b since he came up???

12/6/2010 9:42:26 PM

probably. led the MLB in 2008, and the NL in 2009. that's the entire league, not just 3b, so i'm sure he's leading 3b too

12/6/2010 9:56:07 PM

UZR had him as slightly above average this year. it's by no means a perfect defensive metric, but it's way better than evaluating players defensively than errors and fielding percentage. his glove sucked in 2009, but it looks like his bat made up for it. even if his defense dips back down to pre 2010 levels, he's still a better option than josh bell.

12/6/2010 10:10:39 PM

wow the tigers might actually get carl crawford (as well as Ordonez) or so they say....they're saying Crawford doesnt want to play in NY

would be pretty sick lineup of

CF A. Jackson
LF C. Crawford
1B M. Cabrera
C/DH V. Martinez
RF M. Ordonez
2B C. Guillen
SS J. Peralta
C A. Avila
3B B. Inge

SP Verlander
SP Scherzer
SP Porcello
SP Coke
SP Galarraga

12/6/2010 11:26:59 PM

^ wouldn't be too bad, but pitching would be kind of suspect after scherzer unless porcello becomes anything better than an average/below average pitcher.

and apparently jed hoyer had much better offers from other teams for adrian gonzalez, most notably from the white sox for a deal centered around gordon beckham and one or two other major league ready players rather than a couple AA prospects that hoyer himself scouted. i guess there's been a precedent in the past for GMs to go after players they liked from their previous organization, but this guy gave gonzalez to the red sox for peanuts when there were more beneficial deals on the table from other teams. it sucks for the padres and every other team in the AL east. good thing it looks like zack greinke won't be going to toronto.

12/7/2010 7:50:30 AM

Quote :

"Charlie Manuel thinks he can "fix" Jeff francoeur."

Ha ha. If there is someone that can make Frenchy anything more than a .650 OPS guy, it's probably Manuel. That dude, even though he can barely talk and half the time looks drunk, knows how to make hitters better. He made Carlos Ruiz into a serviceable hitter and got fucking Werth a $126 million so anything is possible.

If the Phillies somehow bring back Lee, I am going to be



[Edited on December 7, 2010 at 8:21 AM. Reason : k]

12/7/2010 8:20:42 AM

Quote :

"Ha ha. If there is someone that can make Frenchy anything more than a .650 OPS guy, it's probably Manuel. That dude, even though he can barely talk and half the time looks drunk, knows how to make hitters better. He made Carlos Ruiz into a serviceable hitter and got fucking Werth a $126 million so anything is possible"

suggesting that a manager, who has little to no effect on anything, can make a hitter better is absurd. ruiz performed offensively about as well as you could expect from a catcher from 2006 to 2009 and always had a higher than average BB% and lower than average K%. his plate discipline has always been there. he just had his best year offensively in 2010. charlie manuel should get no credit for that. while the effect isn't measureable, it's still far more likely that hitting and pitching coaches can have a positive effect on a player's performance than the manager can. and how did he get werth $126 million? nobody offered the guy more than a 4 year deal higher than $15 mil/year, and the nats just came out of nowhere and blew everyone else out of the water. how do you give charlie manuel any kind of recognition for that? werth was just a fantastic hitter day in and day out the last 4 seasons on his own, unless charlie manuel's players all bask in the glow of some kind of supernatural aura he emits that improves their innate abilities as professional athletes.

there's no fixing frenchy unless you have a cure for his degenerative eye condition that will inevitably force his retirement. his BB/K ratio has always been well below average, which means he doesn't see pitches well and has horrible plate discipline. it's ludicrous to think anyone could just "fix" that. maybe if his pitch selection was uncharacteristically bad in one season or two, but frenchy's has never been good, period. the guy should've been non-tendered two years ago, but people still unrealistically think there's some way he'll figure out what a strike zone is.

[Edited on December 7, 2010 at 8:55 AM. Reason : .]

12/7/2010 8:31:06 AM

^ Manuel is generally known as one of the better hitting minds in baseball from everything I've read. The comment regarding Werth is that Manuel has helped him become a much better hitter over the past 4 seasons which led to him getting a big pay day.

Ruiz has slowly gotten better and posted an .850 or so OPS last year which is outstanding for a catcher. I'm sure Manuel had something to do with that too. Just because the guy is a manager does not mean he is not involved in the everyday coaching and preparation of his players.

The Frenchy comment was a joke, that guy should have been out of baseball 2 years ago.



[Edited on December 7, 2010 at 9:50 AM. Reason : fg]

12/7/2010 9:49:21 AM

Quote :

"The comment regarding Werth is that Manuel has helped him become a much better hitter over the past 4 seasons which led to him getting a big pay day."

i'm saying you can't assume that's because of charlie manuel just because werth played under him when he started hitting better. on the surface it seems like it would be reasonable, but it's really not very solid logic at all. keep in mind he was 28 in 2007, which is around the age when a lot of players enter their prime. a lot of his peripheral stats have stayed fairly constant throughout his career, but he did see a surge in power starting in 2008 as he was in his prime. i don't think that's something you can credit to charlie manuel. it's correlation without causation.

Quote :

"Ruiz has slowly gotten better and posted an .850 or so OPS last year which is outstanding for a catcher. I'm sure Manuel had something to do with that too. Just because the guy is a manager does not mean he is not involved in the everyday coaching and preparation of his players."

like i said, ruiz's plate discipline has always been good. the telling stat here is his BABIP over the years

2006 - .254
2007 - .283
2008 - .237
2009 - .264
2010 - .335

what this means is that his performance in 2010 was more a result of luck than anything else. the balls he hit fair ended up finding more holes than in the previous 4 seasons. that's not really something you can control terribly well over the course of a season, and i think it'll be likely that ruiz will see a return to form in 2011. a jump from a career .260 BABIP to .335 in one season most likely isn't sustainable. i mentioned yesterday that mark reynolds will probably improve next year since his 2010 BABIP dropped down to .257 from a career mark of .323.

also, according to buster olney, the nats might be making a huge offer to cliff lee. if he comes to DC this will be the most hilarious offseason ever.

[Edited on December 7, 2010 at 10:47 AM. Reason : .]

12/7/2010 10:34:10 AM

looks like there's a snag in negotiations between the white sox and paul konerko. apparently his people are adamant about $15 mil/year, and that would take up remaining payroll needed for relief pitchers. konerko won't be worth that kind of money unless he hits like he did last year, which he probably won't. maybe he could next year, but it's doubtful that he'll keep it up over multiple years since he'll be 35 on opening day. i don't think anyone will offer him that kind of money.

also rumors about magglio ordonez going to boston. i'm not sure if they're true or if they're just the insane rumblings of jon heyman.

12/7/2010 12:31:40 PM

Quote :

"My favorite part is how Werth came up with runners in scoring position 140 times last year, and got 26 hits"

How many walks were involved? ABs =/= BA

12/7/2010 1:25:54 PM

nah i think that actually is his ABs, i heard on the radio he hit something horrible w/ RISP..

and yeah, that works out to .186

[Edited on December 7, 2010 at 1:32 PM. Reason : ^ wait, what was your point?]

12/7/2010 1:32:10 PM

my point is that the lack of hits doesn't look so bad if he was walked a bunch in those situations too (whether intentionally or unintentionally), because the stat listed is a ratio of hits to plate appearances

[Edited on December 7, 2010 at 1:37 PM. Reason : -]

12/7/2010 1:36:34 PM

Quote :

"my point is that the lack of hits doesn't look so bad if he was walked a bunch in those situations too (whether intentionally or unintentionally)"

exactly. as long as you're getting on base, especially when there are already runners on, you can dramatically increase the probability that your team will score. even if he only walked 10 times in those situations, he's still creating an opportunity to score another run, which means there can still be value in what he does that isn't reflected in a stat like RiSP. and like i said earlier, RiSP is a small sample size anyway.

12/7/2010 1:41:56 PM

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=werthja01&year=&t=b#bases

I dunno, he hit a lot worse with RISP, lower OBP, lower SLG obviously..

I don't think it means much anyways, since it's kinda flukey, you don't just become a worse hitter when there's runners on base

12/7/2010 1:43:04 PM

Quote :

"you don't just become a worse hitter when there's runners on base"

unfortunately, not enough people realize this. and you'll see a different sequence of pitches than you would with no runners on. it's just not a fair comparison.

12/7/2010 1:47:21 PM

I know its not the same and its not really fair, but it just looks really bad.

Plus I've hated Jayson Werth for a while now, and I'm just piling on.

[Edited on December 7, 2010 at 1:56 PM. Reason : x]

12/7/2010 1:49:16 PM

Quote :

"I know its not the same and its not really fair, but it just looks really bad when the other top hitters in the game routinely hit around .300"

eh, so what? like hitters who hit .300 for the season, there's probably not a whole lot of them anyway.

another thing average with RiSP doesn't take into account is moving runners down. if there's no outs with a runner on second and werth grounds out to the right side of the field and the runner moves down, you've got a guy on third with 1 out. even if he doesn't score the guy, he still did his job as a hitter and increased the team's chances of getting another run and will be getting some high fives in the dugout. that's not reflected in the stat though. and like walks, sac flies aren't accounted for either.

i'm not saying this is what always happened to jason werth, but it's likely that one of these situations occurred at least a couple times, but you'd never know because OMG LOOK AT HIS AVERAGE WITH RISP ITS AWFUL!!!!!!

12/7/2010 1:58:46 PM

You're basically just reiterating the SABR communities mantra. I know all this, and .186 doesn't tell the whole story, but its still .186, and its still $126,000,000 and those number will forever be joined at the hip.

12/7/2010 2:05:23 PM

Quote :

"You're basically just reiterating the SABR communities mantra. I know all this, and .186 doesn't tell the whole story, but its still .186, and its still $126,000,000 and those number will forever be joined at the hip."

i can't justify that contract, and neither can any amount of advanced statistics. i'm not trying to justify it. all i'm saying is that quoting average with RiSP is a lousy thing to do in any situation and just using jason werth as an example. i was basically saying "here's a bunch of things to consider for why it sounds dumb when you use that statistic like it tells you enough information about what a guy did."

12/7/2010 2:32:34 PM

Agree to disagree. Fuck him. I hope he bombs and goes .270/23/85 every year.

12/7/2010 2:38:53 PM

Quote :

"Agree to disagree"

what exactly did we disagree on?

Quote :

"I hope he bombs and goes .270/23/85 every year"

those are pretty similar to numbers he put up in 2008 and 2010 and wouldn't really be enough of a drop off to be considered bombing. and although those 3 individual numbers were higher in 2009, his aggregate offensive value was basically identical to 2008.

[Edited on December 7, 2010 at 2:49 PM. Reason : .]

12/7/2010 2:46:51 PM

Those are Ty Wigginton numbers. Ty Wigginton just signed for 2 years and 7.5 million, and that was an overpay in and of itself. Washington is expecting 35+ homers and a Gold Glove every year, or at least they should be.

12/7/2010 2:48:33 PM

Quote :

"Washington is expecting 35+ homers and a Gold Glove every year, or at least they should be."

the only year he hit more than 27 homers was 2009. he'll probably start losing power the next few years, so no they shouldn't expect 35+ homers every year unless they're completely unrealistic. and gold glove winners often aren't the ones who deserve it, i.e. derek jeter winning over alexei ramirez this year.

but again, i'm not trying to justify jason werth making that kind of money. i don't even think the nationals think he's worth that kind of money. you're preaching to the choir here if you say that amount should be reserved for someone who hits 35+ homers, but the nats probably realize he isn't going to.

[Edited on December 7, 2010 at 3:00 PM. Reason : .]

12/7/2010 2:51:49 PM

>>>

[Edited on December 7, 2010 at 3:15 PM. Reason : x]

12/7/2010 3:14:47 PM