I've always wanted to keep track of how much the projections change from the end of the season until the day of the draft. Since the Panthers have the first pick, CBA problems aside, let the speculation begin.

From ESPN Draft front page:



If you have access to a more complete list or just want to add another, feel free to include it.

1/2/2011 10:48:25 AM

Bruce Carter will get drafted over Nate Irving because the NFL is a more finesse game....

1/2/2011 12:15:08 PM

When is the combine?

1/2/2011 12:44:45 PM

Carter plays strong side, Nate plays inside

1/2/2011 12:47:03 PM

Quinn has dropped from #1 on the board. There were 3 UNC guys on the list where now it's down to one.

1/2/2011 2:02:13 PM

where's TJ Yates? that list is full of shit

1/2/2011 2:05:04 PM

will someone that understands this shit explain to me why Cam Newton isn't a top 10 pick?

1/2/2011 11:12:11 PM

^two words for you: Vince Young

1/2/2011 11:17:54 PM

First 20 picks set in stone:

The draft order for the first 20 selections of the 2011 NFL draft have been determined.

1. Panthers -- 2-14
2. Broncos -- 4-12
3. Bills -- 4-12
4. Bengals -- 4-12
5. Cardinals -- 5-11
6. Browns -- 5-11
7. 49ers -- 6-10
8. Titans -- 6-10
9. Cowboys -- 6-10
10. Redskins -- 6-10
11. Texans -- 6-10
12. Vikings -- 6-10
13. Lions -- 6-10
14. Dolphins -- 7-9
15. Rams -- 8-8
16. Jaguars -- 8-8
17. Patriots (from Raiders) -- 8-8
18. Chargers -- 9-7
19. Giants -- 10-6
20. Buccaneers -- 10-6

1/3/2011 12:41:32 AM

It would be great if Julio Jones dropped down one spot and was taken by the Chargers.

1/3/2011 12:45:14 AM

SI's mock draft on January 5th. Quinn keeps dropping.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andrew_perloff/01/05/2011-nfl-mock-draft/index.html?xid=cnnbin&hpt=Sbin

1. Panthers -- Andrew Luck*, QB, Stanford

2. Broncos -- Da'Quan Bowers*, DE, Clemson

3. Bills -- Blaine Gabbert*, QB, Missouri

4. Bengals -- Nick Fairley*, DT, Auburn

5. Cardinals -- Patrick Peterson* CB, LSU

6. Browns -- Marcell Dareus*, DT, Alabama

7. 49ers -- Ryan Mallett*, QB, Arkansas

8. Titans -- A.J. Green*, WR, Georgia

9. Cowboys -- Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

10. Redskins -- Cam Newton*, QB, Auburn

11. Texans -- Akeem Ayers*, DE, UCLA

12. Vikings -- Janoris Jenkins*, CB, Florida

13. Lions -- Tyron Smith*, OT, USC

14. Rams -- Justin Blackmon*, WR, Oklahoma State

15. Dolphins -- Mark Ingram*, RB, Alabama

16. Jaguars -- Robert Quinn*, DE, North Carolina

17. Patriots (from Oakland) -- J.J. Watt*, DT, Wisconsin

18. Chargers -- Julio Jones*, WR, Alabama

19. Giants -- Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State

20. Buccaneers -- Aldon Smith*, DE, Missouri



[Edited on January 6, 2011 at 1:58 PM. Reason : format]

1/6/2011 1:56:02 PM

Way to fuck up the page, bro

I got an email from Prince Amukamara

1/6/2011 1:57:41 PM

Please be right on Amukamara!

1/6/2011 1:57:42 PM

If we draft Cam he has to wear #17

1/6/2011 1:58:47 PM

Peterson will probably be one of the best out of this draft IMHO.

1/6/2011 2:02:07 PM

He's projected top 5 by everyone

So, it's not your fucking opinion is it

1/6/2011 2:02:56 PM

But if he is drafted outside the top 5 then it is a hell of deal!

1/6/2011 2:04:22 PM

not like everyone thats ever drafted top 10 turns out to be a phenominal pick anyways.

so that does indeed matter.


stfu

1/6/2011 2:05:14 PM

You have the logic skills of a fucking banana

1/6/2011 2:06:27 PM

you have a vagina.

1/6/2011 2:06:46 PM

what prevents a player from taking the Wonderlic test during college, or is it just stupid to take it when you dont have to in the event you do badly and your stock drops

1/6/2011 2:15:09 PM

Why take a test when you don't have to?

It would be the equivalent of taking the LSAT for shits and gigs

1/6/2011 2:17:57 PM

Andrew Luck returning to Stanford

Quote :

"@schadjoe Joe Schad Stanford announces Andrew Luck RETURNING to school!"

[Edited on January 6, 2011 at 2:32 PM. Reason : .]

1/6/2011 2:31:45 PM

You can't post shit like that without a source

[Edited on January 6, 2011 at 2:33 PM. Reason : I see you edited]

1/6/2011 2:33:07 PM

because this pic is too perfect for the situation

1/6/2011 2:38:53 PM

I was hopin he would come out, not because I want the Panthers to draft him, but because I'd like someone to trade up to get him n give the panthers 2 picks.

1/6/2011 2:58:26 PM

Quote :

"Oh, this is the biggest one I ever had. You hear that Elizabeth? I'm coming to join you honey. "

I'd pick Mallett over Gabbert, but I don't watch the NFL so I don't know how to spot 'first round' qualities.

[Edited on January 6, 2011 at 3:28 PM. Reason : ...]

1/6/2011 3:24:57 PM

new one

1/24/2011 4:14:44 PM

Here are Mike Mayock's rankings at each position. For those who don't know he is the analyst from the NFL network who seems to know a hell of a lot more than Kiper and McShay.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d81dd8ff0/article/underclassmen-prevalent-among-top-five-per-position

Also the 1st day of senior bowl practices was today

[Edited on January 24, 2011 at 8:08 PM. Reason : ser]

1/24/2011 8:07:40 PM

we need to trade down, everyone sucks on the current team. the more picks the better. wouldnt mind patrick peterson but i dont see bowers as a game changer

1/24/2011 8:14:15 PM

No one will be able to trade down the first pick. You have to invest so much money into that rookie, so unless there is a sure-fire #1 you must have, you'd never be able to deal that pick.

1/25/2011 3:24:10 AM

FYI the last two times the number one overall pick were traded were Eli Manning and John Elway (but Bo Jackson did refuse to sign with the Bucs and reentered the following draft).

1/25/2011 6:42:16 AM

Of course, it was the draftee that requested the trade, not the organization.

Manning - Didn't want to play in San Diego
Elway - Didn't want to play in Baltimore

I can't imagine a team would want to take that financial hit for any position other than a QB.

1/25/2011 7:14:10 AM

I still do not understand why the VERTERANS in the NFL players association cared so much about rookies as to add such ridiculous guaranteed pay for 1st rounders.

1/25/2011 7:48:11 AM

^^
Yeah, the number 1 picks worth trading for are too good to trade (barring extenuating circumstances as noted above). It's also worth noting the Giants were completely fleeced by the Chargers in that deal. More recently, when there hasn't been a clear cut number one the team with the top pick has tried to play the draft picks off of each other to get a contract done before their draft slot (think Mario Williams, Reggie Bush).

^
I think you mean why don't they agree to a rookie pay scale as part of collective bargaining. The deals NFL rookies get is just what they negotiate as the result of not having a pay scale. From a direct standpoint it is no money out of the veterans' pockets, but when there is a salary cap it leaves less money to spread around (and an unproven rookie could be making more than a pro bowler).

Another barrier is that NFL contracts are exceptionally complicated and incentive laden, with much of the money not being guaranteed at all. First rounders obviously want more money and more importantly guaranteed money, with the only recourse being thread of a holdout. So for a rookie pay scale you would need agreement not just on the contract dollars but on the terms of a contract. It doesn't help rookies if you get a high dollar value contract if most of it is tied up in nearly unreachable incentives (Ricky Williams signed one like this as a rookie, and the Chargers tried to get Rivers to do the same thing). Additionally, they would need to come to agreement on contract triggers that work for an offensive tackle as well as a quarterback or linebacker. All of these things make an NFL rookie wage scale more complicated than the NBA. Baseball has never really even resolved the pitcher/field player issue.

[Edited on January 25, 2011 at 8:06 AM. Reason : .]

1/25/2011 7:51:49 AM

Well part of the labor talks for next year include a new rookie cap, so this could actually be the cheapest #1 overall draft pick in a long, long time. You know Richardson has to be drooling over that possibility.

1/25/2011 8:06:50 AM

Every owner is drooling over that. No matter where a player is picked in the first round, every organization has to pay more to potentially legitimate rookie than to a legitimate veteran.

1/25/2011 8:31:38 AM

Quote :

"FYI the last two times the number one overall pick were traded were Eli Manning and John Elway "

Micheal Vick, anyone?

1/25/2011 9:30:21 AM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_National_Football_League_draft_picks

Sorry pulled up the wiki page and didn't think about that trade. Funny the last 2 traded number 1s were the Chargers. I guess they left it off because the trade was done the prior to the draft? The Chargers ended up with LDT and still got Brees in the 2nd round, so I think that worked out for them.

Funny column with "experts" criticizing the Chargers for passing on Vick's talent and taking LDT and Brees. Their thinking obviously was the LDT was not a franchise player and that Brees would never be a star quarterback. We will never know how Vick would have turned out if he didn't lose so many years due to lack of maturity and dedication to studying the game (+jail time), and never ended up with a QB guru prior to Andy Reid.

[Edited on January 25, 2011 at 10:03 AM. Reason : .]

1/25/2011 10:02:51 AM

Adrian Clayborn to Lions (talk around here in detroit)

1/25/2011 10:13:59 AM

1/25/2011 10:54:40 AM

I'm hoping Nate can sneak up into the third round or so. He definitely has the talent and drive to be successful in the league.

1/25/2011 11:34:41 AM

Quote :

"FYI the last two times the number one overall pick were traded were Eli Manning and John Elway"

The Panthers traded it away their #1 pick in 1995.

1/25/2011 11:41:17 AM

Quote :

"We will never know how Vick would have turned out if he didn't lose so many years due to lack of maturity and dedication to studying the game (+jail time), and never ended up with a QB guru prior to Andy Reid."

so, we'll never know how he would have turned out if he wasn't a dumbass?

1/25/2011 1:32:16 PM

^ yeah that line made me scratch my head too

1/25/2011 4:27:10 PM

Doesn't sound like Nate's making a great impression in drills

Quote :

"Nate Irving of NC State did not impress. He appeared heavy-legged and rigid. He was too upright in a blocking drill and was easily steered by tight ends that aren’t noted for being good blockers."

Quote :

"Texas A&M LB Von Miller went down with the linemen to rush the passer in one-on-ones and was lights out. He's so quick around the corner and the blockers had no chance. On the flip side, NC State LB Nate Irving also went down to rush the passer and followed Miller and you could see the difference. He didn't have the same first-step quickness and was unable to turn the corner as a result. "

Hopefully he does well in the game.

1/26/2011 8:16:09 AM

^I kind of expected that. I saw Nate as one of those guys who wouldn't test great at combines but would make plays in the game. Probably what will keep him out of the 2nd round and more likely a 3rd round pick.

1/26/2011 8:49:23 AM

when do we know if there will be a lockout, and if there is a lockout is it the WHOLE season that isn't played or will they play a shortened season if things get worked out, like in the NBA/NHL the past decade.5 or so

i.e. if we know there's a lockout by the time the draft comes, it's gotta affect draft decisions, since they'd be able to take Luck in the next draft with the top pick

1/26/2011 12:36:01 PM

They would never cancel the whole season until at least midway thru the usual reg season schedule

1/26/2011 12:46:20 PM

if the whole season is a lock out do the panthers get the no. 1 pick again next year?

1/26/2011 1:19:23 PM