... who is next?

Egypt police, undercover government toadies, and military cracking down hard on demonstrators. People being clubbed in the streets, tear-gassed, shot by rubber bullets (not confirmed), even knocked down by armored vehicles.

Watch international news... pandemonium in the streets. Very intense situation.

Down with Hosni Mubarak, and his cronies. Bastard should just step down instead of sending more forces to literally crush the people.

The same scenes took place in America's worst enemy (Iran) in the region last year, and now in America's best friend (other than Israel, of course). Hope the US takes the right stand.

Algeria, Morocco, and Yemen should be next. And then ultimately, the rich Gulf Arab countries, but that is basically impossible for several reasons.


[Edited on January 28, 2011 at 1:22 PM. Reason : ]

1/28/2011 1:13:54 PM

Dude. Complete sentences. Use them.

1/28/2011 1:15:46 PM

I was just thinking about making a thread about this, noticing that TSB was notably devoid of discussion of both...



I kind of wish I was more educated on the subject. I mean, I got it that they did bad stuff, people found out, and now they want stuff changed. Plenty of nations could follow, really, I hope that this can just keep going.

1/28/2011 1:16:59 PM

Quote :

"I mean, I got it that they did bad stuff, people found out, and now they want stuff changed."

No, more like the leaders have been in power for 20+ consecutive years, and the countries have stagnated and the citizens' conditions have worsened. Promised reforms have yielded nothing of value for most people while the leaders continue to live in mighty palaces.

1/28/2011 1:23:53 PM

So what is it? Young people in Islamist countries trying to create democracy in their countries? I haven't really been paying attention to this stuff.

1/28/2011 1:24:13 PM

"Islamist countries"?

1/28/2011 1:29:15 PM

I don't really see anything wrong with what I said.

1/28/2011 1:33:13 PM

More like young people in Islamic countries. There's nothing Islamist about the former regime in Tunisia and the current regime in Egypt.

From what I gather the big problem is unemployment in particular and the economy in general. There was sort of an unspoken deal between the people and their pseudo-dictators: we'll let you stay in power and suppress some civil rights as long as we are improving monetarily. Well, now everyone's broke and jobless, and the deal looks shitty.

The whole thing started with a guy who set himself on fire in Tunis. He was upset because a cop had confiscated his sole means of income, a fruit cart, I think -- and beneath that was no doubt a healthy well of rage that he had a degree in computer science or some such and had to run a fucking food cart.

---

If the trend spreads I've got money on Yemen next. It's only about half a step above a failed state anyway. If not them, Algeria. And there's some dark horse candidates, too, outside of the Mideast. Nigeria is populous, suffers high unemployment and vast income disparity, and if there's a Muslim element to all this then it has plenty of Muslims, too.

1/28/2011 1:33:22 PM

The only problem with these autocratic dictators being kicked out is that these very rulers have been keeping a tight lid over terrorism, and have done a lot to disrupt terrorism and catch thousands of suspects.

If they are forced to step down, and democracy takes a foothold, terrorist sympathizers could easily come to power.

That's the only reason the US has never pushed for democracy in Arab countries.

1/28/2011 2:25:52 PM

this is going to be tricky. Suez canal is too valuable..

1/28/2011 3:13:18 PM

Suez Canal will most likely be left out of this. People are not allowed to live near or visit the canal, so as long as the Egyptian military itself does not attack the Canal, it should be left alone.

1/28/2011 3:55:06 PM

Quote :

"The protests in Egypt have set off fears demonstrations could spread to other oil-producing countries, causing a 4.2% increase in light, sweet crude for March, moving the price per barrel from $85.64 to $89.25 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Wall Street Journal reports. Brent crude is also up, from $97.39 to $99.02 a barrel. ABC reports that some nervous traders are pulling money they had invested in oil to buy gold, the dollar and other assets. And the Washington Post's Sarah Halzack says the Egyptian stock market is suffering, too: Egypt's benchmark index, the EGX 30, took a 10 percent dive. It was the index's largest one-day drop in more than two years. In fact, officials went so far as to temporarily halt trading in the markets. While Egypt doesn't produce nearly as much oil as some of its Middle Eastern neighbors, it plays a pivotal role in the region's oil politics, as many oil and fuel shipments pass through the Suez canal. If instability continues, it could disrupt the supply of oil."

1/28/2011 4:31:21 PM

Quote :

"Nigeria is populous, suffers high unemployment and vast income disparity, and if there's a Muslim element to all this then it has plenty of Muslims, too."

That would be a blood bath. Tens of thousands killed, most likely. Rwanda all over again, with the bonus factors of religion and oil.

1/28/2011 4:35:22 PM

I won't shed a tear for the regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, or Yemen; good riddance to crackpot dictators. The only real question is what will emerge to replace them? Some draw parallels to the Iranian revolution back in the 1970s, where what started as a general toppling of a corrupt regime was hijacked by Islamists. Some commentators say that's unlikely in Egypt though; while there is certainly a strain of crazed fundamentalist in Egypt, I'm pretty sure that most people, after watching how dysfunctional the Islamic Republic of Iran is, are probably not going to be as willing to replicate that model.

I think Egypt may be a much harder nut to crack though. Some commentators noted that unlike in Tunisia, Mubarak is a former military man, so the armed forces may not be as willing or as quick to switch sides.

I think the nation I worry about the most is Yemen. Unlike the other countries, Yemen is already a heavily fractured nation with multiple armed insurgencies, and if the government is ousted, it may just devolve into another Somalia.

1/28/2011 5:53:22 PM

Oh, and regarding Nigeria, that's a whole different animal entirely. That nation is split between between Christian and Muslim factions and has a whole thirty plus ethnic group mix that would make it even more messy. Also, while their government is far from satisfactory, it is still a somewhat functioning democratic system and thus isn't the typical Middle-East/North African dictatorship.

1/28/2011 5:57:24 PM

Mubarak asks government to resign.

1/28/2011 5:57:45 PM

Obama speaking soon.

1/28/2011 6:27:30 PM

^^^^ Concur on Yemen.

Quote :

"The whole thing started with a guy who set himself on fire in Tunis. He was upset because a cop had confiscated his sole means of income, a fruit cart, I think -- and beneath that was no doubt a healthy well of rage that he had a degree in computer science or some such and had to run a fucking food cart. "

Yeah, when I went to Peru a couple of months ago, I took a cab to RDU driven by a dude from Morocco. He was a CPA, and couldn't get work in Morocco...he's driving the cab in NC until he can get certified in the U.S. We were talking about all kinds of political stuff, and I think his words regarding the president of Morocco were something like "they should hang that motherfucker in the street."

1/28/2011 8:12:58 PM

<-- Has just learned of a place called Peru, North Carolina. Is that what you're talking about? You might want to specify that in the future. Just saying.

1/28/2011 8:21:46 PM

Mubarak vows not to step down... I don't know how anybody (ruler or not) can be so shameless as to not step down after so many of his/her subjects protest his/her rule and authority.

He says he will appoint a new government on Saturday and work for both freedom and security. Yeah dude, you are fucking 80+ years old, just fucking leave, and let someone young and fresh work for 'freedom' and 'security'.

Obama spoke to him by phone... wonder what he said to him.


^ There is no reason to think that's what he meant.


[Edited on January 28, 2011 at 8:25 PM. Reason : ]

1/28/2011 8:21:50 PM

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703956604576110453371369740.html

1/28/2011 8:51:37 PM

Mohamed El Baradei (the UN nuclear inspector) under house arrest in Egypt.

1/28/2011 8:55:04 PM

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41312962/ns/politics-more_politics/

Quote :

"Obama to Mubarak: Don't use force on your people Calls on Egyptian leader to fulfill promises; U.S. to review $1.5 billion in aid WASHINGTON — Increasing the pressure on Egypt's leaders, President Barack Obama said Friday that the government should refrain from using violence against protesters and his administration threatened to reduce foreign aid depending on President Hosni Mubarak's response. "Surely, there will be difficult days to come, but the United States will continue to stand up for the rights of the Egyptian people and work with their government in pursuit of a future that is more just, more free and more hopeful," Obama said he told the long-time leader in a phone call from the White House. "

Quote :

"Before Obama spoke, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs announced the administration might cut the $1.5 billion in annual foreign aid sent to Egypt, depending on Mubarak's response to the demonstrations. Gibbs said the "legitimate grievances" of the Egyptian people must be addressed immediately by their government and violence is not the right response. He reiterated calls for calm and said that the Pentagon has been in direct contact with the Egyptian military to caution restraint."

In addition to the President and Pentagon talking to them, they are giving them a financial interest to avoid violence in dealing with protesters.

I just caught part of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell. He was talking about Obama's call for keeping access to the internet and social networking open, and then the guy he was talking to on the ground said the internet had just came back from him. Although he didn't seem to know how wide spread that was and whether or not internet being back would mean sites like facebook weren't blocked any more.

1/28/2011 9:08:42 PM

Lazarus -- don't be a jackass. He was in a cab to RDU. If there is a town called Peru, NC, I'm guessing it doesn't have an airport.

Aside from which, a while back he was talking about going with a girl to Peru, South America. Which you shouldn't be expected to know but still.

0EPII1 -- CNN is talking as though it's all over but the crying for Mubarak. From the footage and the words of Egyptians that I'm seeing, that's probably right on the money. If I had to place a bet, I'd wager that he has a matter of days, if not hours.

The army has largely refused to crack down, the police efforts seem to be collapsed or close to it, the US isn't offering him any help. And if Mubarak presses the Army to do more, I think it's nearly a sure thing that they decide they could do a better job of running the country than him.

Of course, I can understand why he's not just stepping down. He's not a complete idiot. He realizes that the second he relinquishes power his ass is toast. How long did it take Tunisia to put out a warrant for their ex-president? Does Egypt not seem like the sort of place where what starts with a warrant might end with a firing squad?

Still, the only thing that gives me any hope is that El Baradei will come into power after. Which seems unlikely, given how entrenched and powerful the Muslim Brotherhood and the military are. And neither of those prospects thrill me.

1/28/2011 9:14:05 PM

Given that he's evacuated his family to London... kinda think that he sees what is going to happen eventually

1/28/2011 9:16:43 PM

Quote :

"Of course, I can understand why he's not just stepping down. He's not a complete idiot. He realizes that the second he relinquishes power his ass is toast. How long did it take Tunisia to put out a warrant for their ex-president? Does Egypt not seem like the sort of place where what starts with a warrant might end with a firing squad?"

That I am sure doesn't even register as a problem for him... he as a 777 which he can take to Saudi Arabia and go into self-imposed exile any time, just like the Tunisian leader did. Saudi Arabia (Jeddah, specifically), seems to be the favorite place for brutal/wanted leaders from Arab/Muslim countries who are escaping justice in their own countries. (Idi Amin, Nawaz Sharif, Tunisian leader...)

1/28/2011 9:22:40 PM

Yeah, Saudi Arabia does love housing some horrible assholes. One more reason I happily await the second we don't need another drop of their oil and can leave the royal family at the mercy of whoever.

But I suspect it registers as a problem. He has to get to the airport. He has to trust that his driver/pilot/etc. will do what he wants and not hand him over to the mob. He has to trust that Saudi Arabia will be thrilled to see a secular leader who has honored deals with Israel ask for a place to stay in their country.

Asshole leaders and paranoia go hand in hand. He's worried about everything I just mentioned and more.

1/28/2011 9:28:15 PM

Cairo in near anarchy as riot police and army try to quell protests against Mubarak. http://wapo.st/fBSWcN

1/28/2011 9:52:19 PM

Army is not taking action.

Quote :

"But unlike the police, which unleashed an arsenal of weapons against the demonstrators, the military did not take any immediate action, and protesters gleefully welcomed the soldiers' arrival in a thundering of personnel carriers."

Depends on the people now... if they accept what Mubarak said, he will stay. If they continue protesting for another at least 2-3 days, he most probably will step down.

Quote :

"The ranks of the protesters included a significant number of government employees, who their used their day off from work to call for their president to go. "All the Egyptian people are oppressed, and their time has come. Enough is enough," said a man who identified himself as a diplomat with the nation's foreign ministry, but would only give his first name, Ahmed. "I know Egyptians, and they will not stop until Mubarak is gone.""

I hope so.


^ Yeah I am sure he is paranoid... however, the Saudis will definitely take him, that I am sure of. As for being handed over to people for justice, extremely unlikely, but even if that were to happen, the people will let him go and tell him to GTFO of the country. Unlike, say Saddam, he hasn't committed any massacres or stuff like that. He has just been a corrupt/bad/indifferent leader. Saddam would definitely have been lynched in the streets if the public had been able to lay their hands on him.


[Edited on January 28, 2011 at 10:03 PM. Reason : ]

1/28/2011 9:59:30 PM

Here is the Secretary of State's comments:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WBwjoQMb1E

1/28/2011 10:08:51 PM

^^From where I'm sitting, I'm certain you're right.

But if I'm Hosni Mubarak and it's my ass on the line, I'm a damn sight less certain, especially if I've just watched my country go from "business as usual" to "total shitstorm" in the course of a week.

1/28/2011 10:47:16 PM

Quote :

"Some draw parallels to the Iranian revolution back in the 1970s, where what started as a general toppling of a corrupt regime was hijacked by Islamists."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/28/gop-conference-chairman-america-must-stand-with-egypt/

Quote :

"GOP Conference chairman: America must stand with Egypt (CNN) - GOP Conference chairman Thaddeus McCotter voiced his support for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak Friday in a statement released on his website. The Republican congressman from Michigan likened demonstrations in Egypt to "Iran's 1979 radical revolution." He cautions that those who "will be tempted to superficially interpret the Egyptian demonstrations as an uprising for populist democracy" should instead "recall how such similar initial views of the 1979 Iranian Revolution were belied by the mullahs' radical jackbooted murderers." McCotter, the chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee, called for America to back Egypt, stating, "Thus America must stand with her ally Egypt to preserve an imperfect government capable of reform; and prevent a tyrannical government capable of harm."

1/29/2011 5:42:31 AM

What a shit. Democracy for everyone except the Muslims, I suppose.

Keep supporting corrupt, authoritarian regimes, because if you don't, the country will be taken over by Islamists, who are really only appealing to Muslims when seen as the only alternative to corrupt, authoritarian regimes. Some cycle we've got going here.

[Edited on January 29, 2011 at 8:03 AM. Reason : ]

1/29/2011 7:57:03 AM

Egyptians need a Rally to Restore Sanity. Clearly, virulent anti-government rhetoric has lead to this violence.

1/29/2011 7:58:33 AM

Looks like Mubarak is as good as done.

Quote :

"While some protesters clashed with police, army tanks expected to disperse the crowds in central Cairo and in the northern city of Alexandria instead became rest points and even, on occasion, part of the protests as anti-Mubarak graffiti were scrawled on them without interference from soldiers. “Leave Hosni, you, your son and your corrupted party!” declared the graffiti on one tank as soldiers invited demonstrators to climb aboard and have their photographs taken with them. “This is the revolution of all the people,” declared the side of a second tank in downtown Cairo. Egyptian men all serve in the army, giving it a very different relationship to the people from that of the police. "

This, however, is less encouraging.

Quote :

"In another sign that the army was showing sympathy for the demonstrations, in a different central Cairo square on Saturday a soldier in camouflage addressed a crowd through a bullhorn declaring that the army would stand with the people. “I don’t care what happens,” the soldier said. “You are the ones who are going to make the change.” The crowd responded, “The army and the people will purify the country.” "

Calls for purification are rarely a good thing. It also sounds like an Brotherhood chant if I ever heard one.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/30/world/middleeast/30-egypt.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

[Edited on January 29, 2011 at 8:30 AM. Reason : ]

1/29/2011 8:29:40 AM

Quote :

"Clearly, virulent anti-government rhetoric has lead to this violence. "

lol. quick, find out if sarah palin has every been to egypt.

1/29/2011 8:50:32 AM

1/29/2011 2:58:29 PM

Albania apparently has some protests going on too

1/29/2011 3:49:41 PM

^^ That's an awesome pic.

It is sad how [intentionally] delusional Arab 'leaders' are:

Saudi King condemns violence in Egypt

Quote :

"“Egypt is a country of Arabism and Islam. No Arab and Muslim can bear that some infiltrators into the brotherly Egyptian people are attempting to destabilize that country’s security and stability in the name of freedom of expression, and they have been exploiting the public and spawning hatred and driving them to engage in destruction, arson, looting — terrorizing them and inciting sedition,'' the king said in a statement distributed by the Saudi Press Agency."

1st, plz to not speak on behalf of a billion+ people
2nd, of course he condemns it, lest he becomes the next domino to fall (and in his case, it is a whole large family of dominos)

Mubarak's response is even funnier/sadder:

Quote :

"During the conversation, President Mubarak reassured the king that the situation in Egypt is stable. “What have been seen by the viewers in the world outside are merely attempts of some groups who do not want stability and security for the Egyptian nation. These groups seek to achieve weird and dubious objectives.” The president stressed that Egypt and its people are determined to stop anyone who tries to exploit the freedom of Egyptians and would not allow anyone to use those groups to achieve their agendas."

Yeah, these "some groups" include people from all strata of society wrt economic status, educational status, age, professions, etc. Even the soldiers are being passive protesters.

"Freedom of Egyptians"...? Hahahahaha.

OK Mubarak, whatever you say.

1/29/2011 5:11:39 PM

^^^ [no homo]

1/29/2011 5:14:25 PM

Probably 100+ dead and 2,000+ injured. Terrible.

Quote :

"But clashes between the protesters and the riot police have left at least 74 people dead since rallies began on Tuesday. About 2,000 people have been injured. "Live bullets have been fired at protesters, aimed at their heads," Dr Yaser Sayyed at the Sayyed Galal Hospital in Cairo told BBC Arabic. "We have seen more than 20 cases of headshots with the bullet wounds on the front of the head and exit wounds on the other side, skulls fractured... in addition to chest wounds.""

However, this is terrible as well, and even more so, because the protesters are supposed to act responsibly... attacking and burning down government buildings is one thing, but looting and damaging supermarkets, people's homes, and even antiquities is not forgivable.

Quote :

"Looters rampaged through a number of upper-class neighbourhoods in Cairo, while in Alexandria there were reports of widespread looting of supermarket chains. Some residents have formed committees to protect their homes and buildings. The BBC's Lyse Doucet in Cairo says she has seen one local defence committee arming itself with hockey sticks, a metal exercise bar and a table leg. Despite an impromptu guard made up of volunteers, at least two looters managed to get into Cairo's museum of antiquities, damaging some of the exhibits. "They were able, these two people to enter the Cairo museum from the [roof] and they destroyed two mummies and they opened one case," said Zahi Hawass, secretary general of Egypt's Supreme Council of Antiquities."

Of course, those in the government against the protesters from the get go claim these violent protesters make up the bulk of them and can then claim an upper moral ground.

Protesters needs to stop looting and damaging private property.

1/29/2011 5:21:18 PM

Looks like the internet has finally begun to truly liberate the Muslim world. Iran was just testing the waters. Surely the dominoes are in place now for several other nations. Right now it seems like any middle east dictator who doesn't regulate internet access in his nation is a ticking time bomb.

1/29/2011 5:31:50 PM

He has for the 1st time appointed a VP and a PM in 30 years of emergency rule.

Commentators say this is a prelude to him stepping down.

1/29/2011 5:35:52 PM

Quote :

"Protesters needs to stop looting and damaging private property. "

Protests would be pointless if looting wasn’t a possibility.

1/29/2011 6:33:15 PM

To bad Egypt can't deal with these protesters like Iran did with their protesters last year.......

1/29/2011 7:09:28 PM

Quote :

"Protesters needs to stop looting and damaging private property."

some are saying that the looters are actually government or police trying to discredit the protesters

1/30/2011 12:07:10 AM

Looking back on the early Cairo speech where he talked some about human rights and the importance of rule by consent of the people, hopefully that adds to the legitimacy to the calls now against violence.

1/30/2011 6:09:43 AM

Quote :

"some are saying that the looters are actually government or police trying to discredit the protesters"

From an Egyptian journalists twitter page:

Quote :

"EXCLUSIVE: Very reliable source from Egypt: Habib Al Adly was arrested for opening the doors to all jail cells yesterday so chaos ensues"

Al Adley served as Egypt's Minister of Interior and was widely hated. It is also being reported that he authorized snipers to shoot at protesters.

1/30/2011 9:07:05 AM

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-clinton-egypt-20110131,0,6713553.story

This is a decent article.

It reiterates the point earlier that we can either get Mubarak, who doesn’t seem like the nicest guy, or the Muslim Brotherhood, which would be a few steps backwards.

1/30/2011 11:53:57 AM

have all these jihadis killed each other off yet?

1/30/2011 12:10:35 PM