Nothing new here. Just a neat analogy...

In talking with a friend he said something interesting when we were discussing divorce statistics. If you knew getting into a car will give you 50% of getting into an accident and die, would you ever get into that car?

Made me think.

[Edited on May 3, 2012 at 12:23 AM. Reason : f]

5/3/2012 12:22:35 AM

i love my car though

5/3/2012 12:23:16 AM

most do!

5/3/2012 12:27:46 AM

is divorce as severe as death in the eyes of most people? no.

5/3/2012 12:32:00 AM

Is this the line to lose half my shit? Awesome.

If you went skydiving and they told you there was a 50% chance the parachute wouldn't open, would you do it?

-Bill Burr


*Mr & Mrs. ClassicMixup in a few months

5/3/2012 1:38:44 AM

You have a 50% chance to lose 50% of your stuff.

So the Expected Value of marriage is -25% of your possessions if she has nothing.

5/3/2012 1:40:47 AM

My gf was cutting this old lady's hair the other day and the subject of today's high divorce rates compared to those of the mid-20th century came up. She said that all the old lady said was

"well back in my day when something was broke, you fixed it."

telling, really

5/3/2012 4:54:33 AM

i thought most of the articles that i've read that dug into the statistics show that the actual statistics for most of the people on here are actually much lower than 50% - things such as having a college education before they get married have a large impact on the numbers

5/3/2012 6:03:04 AM

Love and marriage
Love and marriage
Go together like a horse and carriage.
This I tell ya, brother,
You can't have one without the other!

5/3/2012 6:25:01 AM

I have similar feelings. My family is littered with divorces (mom and dad both on 3rd marriage...step parents all in 2nd or third marriages).

My feeling is that no one gets married with the tiniest thought that they will end up divorced...yet it happens so often. I just don't think marriages, weddings, or any of that stuff is necessary. I don't need a ring or a ceremony to be with someone for the rest of my life.

That being said...I will probably getting engaged/married within the year...

5/3/2012 7:15:49 AM

Quote :

"My gf was cutting this old lady's hair the other day and the subject of today's high divorce rates compared to those of the mid-20th century came up. She said that all the old lady said was "well back in my day when something was broke, you fixed it.""

I saw this on a pinterest pin.

5/3/2012 7:47:37 AM

this is a stupid analogy

i understand that it's currently cool to hate on marriage because there are so many stupid people who get married when they shouldn't and/or are incapable of working (or unwilling to work) through problems with their significant other, but divorce is a far cry from DEATH

seriously stupid analogy

5/3/2012 8:32:37 AM

I guess it's a glass half empty/full thing. Would you take a 50% chance at being companions with someone that makes you happy for the rest of your life?

^
Yeah, change that to: If you knew getting into a car might cost you 50% of everything you own, would you?

With gas, insurance, and repair bills I guess the answer to that question is... yes.

[Edited on May 3, 2012 at 8:37 AM. Reason : -]

5/3/2012 8:32:43 AM

Quote :

"I guess it's a glass half empty/full thing. Would you take a 50% chance at being companions with someone that makes you happy for the rest of your life?"

Yes. Marriage is not all sunshine and daisies. There have been times when I wasn't sure if ours would work out. But I can honestly say, I'm the happiest with my husband I have ever been. I wouldn't sacrifice this happiness on the off-chance that someday we might grow apart.

That said, perhaps there are more divorces because people don't take marriage quite so seriously anymore. Or society doesn't value or doesn't "see the need" to get married like it used to. People can perpetually live in sin if they want to, and what's going to stop that? Or convince people that you should get married?

On the flip side, it's likely that our ancestors didn't necessarily work through their problems, they just didn't want to be publicly shamed for getting a divorce, and lived in unhappy marriages until they got old and turned happy again.

5/3/2012 8:58:39 AM

In my extended family, there isn't a single divorce. (my dad is one of 13, and my mom is one of 3). none of my cousins who have married have divorced. This is more of a cultural thing than sign of truly happy marriages. That said, by my observation, I have one aunt and uncle who clearly need to divorce, other than that everyone else seems pretty damn happy.

on my wife's side, there are two marriages that haven't ended in divorce. Ours, and one of her uncles who has been married for a year less than us.

So that's an interesting mix.

5/3/2012 9:12:06 AM

also, life expectancies have risen dramatically in the last century. people probably used to die before they were married long enough to hate their spouse

5/3/2012 9:21:46 AM

I think it is the "if something broke, we fixed it" mentality coupled with the change in values/courting these days. I like to think that because we're both educated people with careers and no massive debt that my girl and I will do all right. Marrying young, pregnant, or impulsively all probably contribute to the rates. I know a few of my high school seniors who are engaged, which I can respect if you legitimately love someone, but I don't expect any of them to last.

5/3/2012 9:28:42 AM

i wonder when the divorce rate is highest? 0-5 years, 6-10 years, 11-20, or 20+?

just curious.

5/3/2012 9:32:05 AM

Quote :

"Yeah, change that to: If you knew getting into a car might cost you 50% of everything you own, would you?"

to change it to reflect the supposed current state of marriage/divorce, it should be "if you knew getting into a car had a 50% chance of costing you 50% of your net value, would you?"

it's still a bad analogy because most people are not as emotionally invested in their cars as they would be in another living person...and if they are, they shouldn't be

but even then, it depends on the car what you're looking for...if you want the fast, expensive, high maintenance model are you REALLY surprised when it doesn't last as long as the reasonably-priced, low maintenance daily driver? sure, the fast car is great for a while, but it's not meant to stick around for the long haul...and so when someone chooses that option, it's no surprise when they (eventually) end up trading it in for the car that they can count on

marriage is work and anyone who tells you otherwise is a liar...i admit that my experience is limited, having only been married for less than 2 years, so perhaps i'll have a different viewpoint 10 years down the road, but my wife and i have fought and will continue to fight...but MOST of those fights are stupid and are the result of being with someone you feel comfortable enough with to vent to (and take out your frustration on, even if that's not what you SHOULD do)...if you fight over things that make you fundamentally different in your views, you're going to have to work a lot harder to be happy and if you can't reconcile basic things like money management, it's going to get old quick

furthermore, i think that if my marriage didn't work out, it would be civil...i'm sure most folks think that, but barring something like cheating/lies/etc, i simply cannot fathom a scenario where we'd hate each other enough to try to take more from the other than we put in and as such, would not lose 50% of what's "mine" so much as lose 50% of what's shared (and therefore got what i put in)

5/3/2012 9:33:29 AM

Quote :

"but even then, it depends on the car what you're looking for...if you want the fast, expensive, high maintenance model are you REALLY surprised when it doesn't last as long as the reasonably-priced, low maintenance daily driver?"

Did you just tell us to marry fatties??

5/3/2012 9:39:13 AM

^ THERE ARE SOME VERY NICE DAILY DRIVERS OUT THERE

i'm just saying: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qh9ZZgDqzAg

5/3/2012 10:12:23 AM

i drive a ferrari

lots of maintenance but damn it's worth it.

5/3/2012 10:14:12 AM

Quote :

"i wonder when the divorce rate is highest? 0-5 years, 6-10 years, 11-20, or 20+? just curious."

ditto

5/3/2012 10:15:31 AM

Quote :

"If you knew getting into a car will give you 50% of getting into an accident and die, would you ever get into that car?"

=Extreme glass half-empty

Now lets look at the Extreme glass half-full side:

Quote :

"If you knew that playing the lottery gave you a 50% chance of hitting the jackpot, why wouldn't you play?"

5/3/2012 10:20:15 AM

Gotta be 0-5, right?

5 years is a long time to be married

5/3/2012 10:28:43 AM

I don't intend to find out.

Marriage just doesn't make very good financial sense if you're a man with a decent income. Introduce children and you're just begging to be fleeced.

5/3/2012 11:36:42 AM

^ People don't usually get married or have kids because of monetary reasons. Usually you love someone and want to spend the rest of your life with them and/or want to have children with them. It's not an investment opportunity (with outliers of course).

5/3/2012 11:40:29 AM

I understand that, I'm just saying that it's probably something that should be considered very seriously, especially if you're the more financially sound partner. Marriage without a prenup is just fucking crazy.

There's also no need to get married in order to spend the rest of your life with someone. Marriage just attaches massive consequences to a break up.

5/3/2012 11:49:11 AM

I'm not disagreeing with you...but you're also putting monetary consequences on an emotional/personal decision. You're not suppose to factor in the monetary consequences at the time you're getting married to someone. If you were thinking about that, then you shouldn't be marrying that person.

5/3/2012 11:52:34 AM

Think with your head first, your wallet second, your dick third, and your heart fourth, and you'll usually come up roses. Usually.

[Edited on May 3, 2012 at 11:53 AM. Reason : x]

5/3/2012 11:53:30 AM

I'm ambivalent on the whole marriage thing at the moment, because so many of my friends have gotten engaged/married in the past year. I have a serious case of wedding fatigue, and the last thing I feel like doing is planning another wedding (my own). Considering our relationship/friendship has lasted longer than a good deal of marriages, I'm not in a hurry, if at all.

Bf and I didn't even really celebrate our latest anniversary, he was more like "Babe, wanna go to Sears and pick out a blender?" (It's a damn good blender, I admit)

5/3/2012 12:29:31 PM

Quote :

"Marriage without a prenup is just fucking crazy."

marriage with a prenup is just fucking crazy. if you need a prenup, then you're going into it with the wrong attitude/aren't ready to be married.

5/3/2012 12:35:27 PM

Quote :

" I saw this on a pinterest pin."

Given that she is constantly pinteresting it is entirely possible that I'm confusing her work stories with her pinteresting stories

When someone is perpetually volleying a verbal assault your way things tend to run together

5/3/2012 12:40:29 PM

Quote :

"Marriage just doesn't make very good financial sense if you're a man with a decent income. Introduce children and you're just begging to be fleeced."

In the bigger picture... we're looking at a completely novel cohort of old people who never married and are completely childless. This has been written about a lot regarding Japan, but we'll see it here too. Those same factors that predict higher marriage success rates also predict a lower chance of marrying.

That cohort of people certainly will be fine financially. The financials of retirement certainly won't be a problem, and the social dynamics will likely be something we're unfamiliar with, since there are so many people in this category, they will in essence have themselves to keep each other occupied.

They'll certainly have supreme claim on this "I worked for it, so it's mine" mentality regarding money. And no participation in the rearing of the next generation. Maybe we'll see this "no children allowed" movement expand to "none under 40", and full charter cities of old people who don't feel the need to listen to the rest of society who choose to deal with the emotional roller coasters associated with mixing various phases of life.

5/3/2012 12:52:17 PM

Quote :

"You're not suppose to factor in the monetary consequences at the time you're getting married to someone. "

I would. Monetary factors come in to play for big things like kids/retirement down to smaller things like vacations and day to day spending. Plus, its the #1 thing couples fight about so if you can avoid that, won't your marriage have a higher chance for success?

Quote :

"marriage with a prenup is just fucking crazy. if you need a prenup, then you're going into it with the wrong attitude/aren't ready to be married."

Why? If you are so freaked out by the thought of a prenup, perhaps you shouldn't be marrying that person.

[Edited on May 3, 2012 at 1:18 PM. Reason : ]

5/3/2012 1:15:54 PM

Quote :

"I would. Monetary factors come in to play for big things like kids/retirement down to smaller things like vacations and day to day spending. Plus, its the #1 thing couples fight about so if you can avoid that, won't your marriage have a higher chance for success?"

Eh...money management is the only "money factor" that should come in to play. You don't want to marry someone that will squander what you have...but you shouldn't be with someone in the first place if you don't enjoy that lifestyle.

Obviously other factors like, intelligence and hard working, will directly affect money....but you're suppose to marry for love...not money. If you're worried about that shit, then you weed it out in the beginning and just don't date poor people.

[Edited on May 3, 2012 at 1:22 PM. Reason : .]

5/3/2012 1:21:50 PM

Quote :

"Marriage without a prenup is just fucking crazy."

This is ridiculous. There are obvious situations where a prenup is a good idea, but for the great majority of people, prenups are unnecessary and a waste of money. Why would you need a prenup if both parties bring equal assets to the table?

5/3/2012 1:22:29 PM

Never marry for money, just associate with the rich and hope to fall in love.


If you're doing it correctly the man should always have more in assets than his much, much younger wife.

However, the woman should come from a family with lavish riches so that you can bear the fruits of their labor.

5/3/2012 1:33:05 PM

^ true

5/3/2012 1:38:59 PM

my ex wife made more than me for most of our marriage so i feel i actually made money on the deal. plus i got a really awesome daughter and a house out of it. no regrets here

i found out you dont really need a prenup in NC. Money you have before the wedding, gifts and inheritance are off the table during the divorce. So it only makes sense if your income is extremely more than his/hers




[Edited on May 3, 2012 at 1:52 PM. Reason : d]

5/3/2012 1:39:17 PM

It's not a community property state, but imagine it is difficult to separate things are commingled.

5/3/2012 2:01:26 PM

Looks like most of ya'll were right, it seems like it peaks right before 5 years.

Education & Age:

Statistics show that higher education means you are less likely to divorce, and if you wait later to get married then you have a higher chance. At 20+ years out if you have a college degree and got married at 26 or older you have a better than 80% chance of being married still. If you were under 26 and a college grad its more like 65%. HS diploma + under 26 years old = 49%. Also 80.6% of women who get divorced were married under 30, and 72.8% of men under 30 had the same. So yea education and age apparently has people making better choices, which I would say bears out from seeing friends who stayed home and got married vs. friends who went to college first. Most of the people I know who got married young are all divorced now.

Divorce Rate by Marriage #:

The divorce rate in America for first marriage is 41%
The divorce rate in America for second marriage is 60%
The divorce rate in America for third marriage is 73%

Race:

Asian women have the lowest divorce rate at 10 per 1000 in a first marriage.
Hispanic & white women are in the middle at 16.3 and 18.1 per 1000 in a first marriage.
Black women have the highest divorce rate at 30.4 per 1000 in a first marriage.

Interracial Marriage:

The highest rate of divorce among interracial couples is a white wife with a black husband, which had a divorce rate twice as high as a white/white marriage. White wife and Asian husband are 59% more likely to end in divorce. On the other hand interracial marriages with white husbands had little or no difference on the divorce rate. White males and asian women were only 4% more likely to get a divorce. And white husbands with a black wife had a 44% lower chance of getting a divorce after 10 years than a white/white couple.

[Edited on May 3, 2012 at 2:20 PM. Reason : ]

5/3/2012 2:19:23 PM

Yes. "50% of marriages end in divorce" does not mean "my marriage has a 50% chance of ending in divorce."

5/3/2012 2:22:29 PM

^ well if you are just simply not aware of those other statistics it does

5/3/2012 2:36:26 PM

Quote :

"Yes. "50% of marriages end in divorce" does not mean "my marriage has a 50% chance of ending in divorce.""

Yes it does. It will either fail, or it won't

5/3/2012 2:52:13 PM

^ good point, if we assume the 50% statistic isn't known in the first place, then as a binary choice we predict 50%

5/3/2012 2:53:43 PM

^Yea just trying to point out as well educated as many people are on here they do not necessarily know the true statistics. People who divorce once are far more likely to divorce a second time, or a third, skewing the statistics. If you are younger when you get married you are at a higher chance of getting, divorced. Compared to most populations the users of TWW are probably in one of the safest marriage brackets statistically.

[Edited on May 3, 2012 at 3:17 PM. Reason : ]

5/3/2012 3:16:09 PM

Quote :

"Compared to most populations the users of TWW are probably in one of the safest marriage brackets statistically."

I think that has more to do with that fact that most t-dubbers can barely get a date...much less get married.

ba-dum ching

5/3/2012 3:22:44 PM

^Haha qft.

I was meaning college educated and most of the people in here are no longer 18 year old kiddies.

5/3/2012 3:25:37 PM

Binary choice doesn't mean equal probabilities and statistics say dick about prior probabilities of specific cases. 47% of people know this.

5/3/2012 3:45:29 PM