User not logged in - login - register
Home Calendar Books School Tool Photo Gallery Message Boards Users Statistics Advertise Site Info
go to bottom | |
 Message Boards » » Israeli Election 2015 Page 1 [2] 3, Prev Next  
bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

Let me try to spell this out for all of you in a different way.

In a US election, the word landslide doesn't get thrown around until winning around 60% of the vote.

Likud only earned 23% of the vote. Herzog's party received 19% and the Arab list won 11%.

Likud gained 12 extra seats. But Jewish Home lost 4, Shas lost 4, Yisrael Beiteinu lost 7, and UTJ lost 1. So the right wing gained 12 and lost 16. While this was a victory for Likud, it was a major defeat for the nationalist and religious parties overall. Netanyahu cannibalized the other right-wing parties to gauruntee his own party the lead. So we're still exactly where we were a week ago...Netanyahu can't win a majority without Kulanu.

This will be the most seats ever held by Arab Israelis. The Center-Left coalition (which wants to put peace talks back on the table) went up 3 seats. An ultra-orthodox party was wiped off the map (Yachad). And who knows...maybe the Arab List will change their minds and join the left, which with Kulanu would then win the majority.

This isn't over yet, and even if Netanyahu remains PM, the political spectrum has changed in a MAJOR way.

3/18/2015 2:40:07 PM

bbehe

17024 Posts
user info
edit post

You've been doing a great job with the analysis in this thread.

3/18/2015 2:44:17 PM

y0willy0
All American
7863 Posts
user info
edit post

I agree; keep up the good work!

3/18/2015 2:48:37 PM

Pupils DiL8t
All American
4148 Posts
user info
edit post

Thanks for the clarification.

3/18/2015 3:07:36 PM

bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

It's essentially as if the Republicans and Tea Party candidates have a coalition, the Democrats and the Green Party candidates have a coalition, and both sides need the Libertarians to vote with them to have a majority in the House.

3/18/2015 3:28:48 PM

dtownral
All American
24292 Posts
user info
edit post

so is this because the US didn't pay Arabs enough, or because they paid them too much?

3/18/2015 4:20:36 PM

moron
All American
31451 Posts
user info
edit post

Obama should give a speech at the Knesset urging kulanu to join center-left...

Also, the name kulanu sounds like something from Krypton.

3/18/2015 4:31:34 PM

bbehe

17024 Posts
user info
edit post

I do enjoy the Fox News spin of Netanyahu overcoming the adversity of Obama trying to sabotage him

3/18/2015 4:34:04 PM

bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

A breakdown of Israeli political party name meanings:

Kulanu - "All of Us"
Likud- "Consolidation" (was formed through a union of other right-center parties)
Shas - acronym, "Guardians of the Sefardi" (Sefardi Jews are from southern Europe and the mediterannean, mostly Spain, as opposed to Ashkenazi Jews from Germany, Russia, and Poland)
Yachad - "Together"
Yisrael Beiteinu - "Israel is our Home"
Habayit Yehudi - "The Jewish Home"
Meretz - "Vigor"
Avodah - Literally "Work," but is Israel's "Labor" party (Now part of Zionist Union)
Hatnuah - "The Movement" (Now part of Zionist Union)
Yesh Atid - "There is a Future"
Balad - acronym, "National Democratic Assemby" (Now part of Joint Arab List)
Ta'al - acronym, "Arab Movement for Renewal" (Now part of Joint Arab List)
Hadash - "New" (Now part of Joint Arab List)
HaYerukim - "The Greens," the pro-marijuana party.
Meimad - acronym, "Jewish State, Democratic State," a strange hybrid between social leftists and the religious right (pro-Palestinian statehood, pro-social democracy, but also pro-religion in schools and courts). Hasn't held a parliament seat since 2009, but is a Meretz partner in several municipalities.

There are currently about 25 others registered, but none of them have had any recent influence.

There are 92 other parties from Israel's political history that no longer exist. Most of them were absorbed into other parties, or were only formed as factions of other parties just for a single election cycle. Only one is really worth mentioning here:

Kadima - "Forward," formed by Likud moderates in 2006 who supported disengagement from Gaza (led by Ariel Sharon). Won the most seats (29) in 2009 under Tzipi Livni however did not form a majority coalition (Netanyahu and Likud took control). In 2012, Livni lost her leadership of the party to a much more conservative group, so she and several other progressives left to create Hatnuah for the 2013 election. Kadima only received 2 seats that year, and dissolved as a party without running any candidates in 2015.

[Edited on March 18, 2015 at 5:41 PM. Reason : -]

3/18/2015 5:40:55 PM

Shrike
All American
9588 Posts
user info
edit post

Wow, Israeli election polling is the worst.

3/18/2015 7:17:15 PM

bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

Not any worse than the 2000 American election

3/18/2015 7:41:13 PM

moron
All American
31451 Posts
user info
edit post

It's kind of strange the party that gets 23% of the vote ends up steering the ship.

3/18/2015 11:31:36 PM

moron
All American
31451 Posts
user info
edit post

https://news.google.com/news/rtc?ncl=dKPwveqxltJEf8MgmMERQsAmq8XCM&authuser=0&topic=h&siidp=c12b0e3b721a7f1319b00370475609de0678

Also, according to the articles on the web, this is a decisive win for Netanyahu, but that's not how you're portraying it bdmazur...

3/19/2015 12:15:40 AM

bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

His party received more votes than everyone else. Yes, that's decisive. And yes, he has the best chance to form a coalition and probably will. But that isn't the same thing as a victory he can build upon. Netanyahu can't pull the same crap as he used to with such a strong left and Arab voice countering his Orthodox companions (who are now few and far between).

If you want specific numbers:

Political Wing, seat changes
Right (Likud, YB, JH), +1
Center (YA, Kulanu, Kadima), Even
Left (Labor/Hatnuah/Meretz), +1
Orthodox (Shas, UTJ), -5
Arab, +3

I'll say it again, Likud won more seats this time, but hurt it's allies for minimal growth. Jewish home lost 4 seats and Yisrael Beiteinu, the party of the crazed, racist, delusional, no-good Minister of Foreign Affairs Avigdor Lieberman, lost 7 and is lucky to have even broken the threshold.

I'm not calling it a victory for the left, not even a moral one, but articles calling this a "crushing" or "dominating" win for Netanyahu are just political spin. If anything, this election weakened his political power.

Huff Post gets it: "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Victory In Israel Elections Leaves Damage In Its Wake"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/18/israel-elections-benjamin-netanyahu_n_6899312.html

3/19/2015 2:22:19 AM

dtownral
All American
24292 Posts
user info
edit post

^^ LOL, you expect major american news media to report fairly and unbiased on Israel?

3/19/2015 8:59:04 AM

Shrike
All American
9588 Posts
user info
edit post

So I guess there are consequences to saying a bunch of crazy shit to get reelected.....

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/20/world/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-elections-palestinian-state.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

Quote :
"Obama administration officials said Wednesday that in light of that statement, they would consider supporting a United Nations Security Council resolution calling for the establishment of a sovereign Palestine roughly along the pre-1967 lines that divided Israel from the West Bank and Gaza.

On Thursday, the White House all but ignored Mr. Netanyahu’s new comments, focusing instead on what he had said before the vote.

“It means that the United States is in a position to re-evaluate our thinking,” the White House press secretary, Josh Earnest, said, adding that Mr. Netanyahu’s comments backing away from support for a two-state solution “do have consequences for actions that we take at the United Nations and other places.”"

3/19/2015 4:33:49 PM

0EPII1
All American
41113 Posts
user info
edit post

^ so maybe the US will take a moral stand on this issue for the first time in its life?

3/19/2015 5:38:01 PM

bbehe

17024 Posts
user info
edit post

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahu-nbc-u-s-has-no-greater-ally-israel-n326391

Now he wants a two state solution.

3/19/2015 8:06:10 PM

TerdFerguson
All American
6083 Posts
user info
edit post

^^^that's got to just be Obama shaking Israel's cage. There is no way that happens.......right?

3/20/2015 11:18:30 AM

Shrike
All American
9588 Posts
user info
edit post

I don't know why would say something like that without at least considering to follow through. Obama has gone full progressive troll at this point, but through actual actions, not just words. It doesn't fit this WH to put something like this out just for kicks.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/20/world/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-elections-palestinian-state.html?_r=0

Quote :
"In a striking indication of how bitter tensions remain between the two, Mr. Obama told Mr. Netanyahu directly that the United States would have to “re-assess our options” after the prime minister’s “new positions and comments” on the two-state solution, according to a White House official who spoke without authorization to detail the private conversation."


[Edited on March 20, 2015 at 11:33 AM. Reason : :]

3/20/2015 11:28:41 AM

TerdFerguson
All American
6083 Posts
user info
edit post

Obama just doesn't have the support to move on that significant of a shift in US policy. Shit, a huge portion of congressional democrats wouldn't be able to run from that quickly enough (I'm surprised we haven't seen that already).

Its an empty threat IMO, Netanyahu probably know this. Lots of citizens of Israel probably don't though, so it could have an interesting reaction over there.

3/20/2015 12:04:58 PM

Shrike
All American
9588 Posts
user info
edit post

I mean, what are they going to do, draft a declaration of war against the new Palestinian state? I don't think it's an empty threat when it's coming from the President, supporting a UN resolution establishing Palestine is something he can totally do.

[Edited on March 20, 2015 at 3:15 PM. Reason : .]

3/20/2015 3:14:29 PM

bbehe

17024 Posts
user info
edit post

He doesn't even have to support it, simply not have our Security council delegation veto it

3/20/2015 4:04:54 PM

TerdFerguson
All American
6083 Posts
user info
edit post

I get that he could support a UN resolution ^ or not veto a resolution, but he won't.

He won't create that kind of division within democrats leading into 2016, and he won't hand Republicans national security/Dems are siding with Terrorists ammunition.

Don't get me wrong here, I'm not saying it was a bad idea to threaten Israel, I just think its totally unlikely he will follow through. Instead its better to talk tuff, try to be the adult in the room, and most importantly, accuse Netanyahu supporters (ie republicans) of wanting to start a war with Iran and continue the war with Palestinians (which is mostly true IMO).

[Edited on March 20, 2015 at 4:12 PM. Reason : ^tru]

3/20/2015 4:11:54 PM

moron
All American
31451 Posts
user info
edit post

He's on his last term, maybe he'll make some waves and push their buttons.

I feel a growing number of people are uneasy with how we put Israel on a pedestal. They're a good country and ally, but we shouldn't have to accept dangerous rhetoric from Netanyahu just because of that.

3/20/2015 4:14:40 PM

bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

Netanyahu has only one more week to either achieve a majority coalition or request a 14 day extension.

4/14/2015 7:24:20 AM

dtownral
All American
24292 Posts
user info
edit post

^^ why is a religious apartheid state a "good country"?

4/14/2015 8:21:49 AM

bbehe

17024 Posts
user info
edit post

"Ally"....bullshit.

4/14/2015 8:39:32 AM

moron
All American
31451 Posts
user info
edit post

^^ because they make great microprocessors and have some of the best robotics researchers...

4/14/2015 11:41:06 AM

0EPII1
All American
41113 Posts
user info
edit post

^ so that's your metric for a country that is good?

so someone who is a slave-trader or a pedophile and a great scientist is a "good person"?

4/14/2015 11:48:37 AM

bbehe

17024 Posts
user info
edit post

The Third Reich made some terrific advances for the space program and rocketry, does this make them good?

4/14/2015 12:01:08 PM

rjrumfel
All American
21293 Posts
user info
edit post

This country has a long established record of having allies that are morally ambiguous, some even not so ambiguous. Look at Saudi Arabia. They fund more terrorism than Iran, yet we still consider them an ally.

4/14/2015 12:51:38 PM

0EPII1
All American
41113 Posts
user info
edit post

They fund or used to fund? They have been victims of Muslim terrorism for over a decade themselves, including a suicide attempt on a high-ranking minister. They have been actively fighting Al-Qaeda for a while now, as AQ is a threat to the Saudi monarchy as well, having declared destruction of the House of Saud as one of their aims. I am the last person on the planet who is a fan of them, and in general, I despise them, but can you please post any links showing they are funding terrorism currently, or indeed during any time in past several years? Because if they are, I need to know, so I can hate them even more.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/08/saudis-give-un-100m-fight-terrorism-201481412824637366.html

http://www.saudiembassy.net/files/PDF/Reports/Counterterrorism.pdf


[Edited on April 14, 2015 at 7:25 PM. Reason : ]

4/14/2015 7:11:52 PM

bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

Getting way off topic here. Take it to the Israel/Palestine thread if you want to talk anything other than the specifics of this election.

4/14/2015 7:18:43 PM

bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

Netanyahu formed a coalition with literally minutes to go before the deadline. The coalition has only the bare minimum number of required seats (61) and is already being considered by most Israeli political analysts as certain to fail and accomplish nothing. Netanyahu had to move to the extreme right to make this happen, and a lot of people who voted for him will be upset about it.

The new coalition:
Likud - 30
Kulanu - 10
Jewish Home - 8
Shas - 7
UTJ - 6

Kulanu is a centrist party which will not be happy with any aggresive or costly war tactics or the expansion of settlements. Jewish Home will insist upon continuing to beef up security and continue to build in the West Bank. This can't possibly end well for Netanyahu.

5/8/2015 2:38:51 AM

bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

Well...rereading this thread really bummed me out (then again, I don't know what else I was expecting). Trump's election really saved Netanyahu's ass and gave him far more agency than he should have.

But now Netanyahu's coalition has fallen apart, and in surprising fashion. I thought Kulanu would be the one to kick off a new election cycle, but it was actually Netanyahu's best buddy Lieberman who left because he disagreed about a ceasefire...followed Naftali Bennet threatening to leave because he was pissed he didn't get Lieberman's job as Defense Minister. The right is not sitting easy, Netanyahu is still under investigation for corruption, and just about every party is ready to fall apart on all sides of the aisle.

New election will be held on April 9. Here's what the polls are predicting (though who can trust them anymore):

Right-Wing Parties 55 seats
Likud 30 (even)
New Right 7 (+4, new party which broke away from Jewish Home)
Yisrael Beiteinu 5 (even)
Shas 6 (-1)
UTJ 7 (+1)

Left-Wing Parties 23 seats
Labor 7 (-11)
Yesh Atid 11 (even)
Meretz 5 (even)

Center...ish? 27 seats
Israel Resilience 22 (+22...brand new party, center-right on defense and left on socioeconomic issues)
Kulanu 5 (-5)

Arab Parties 12 seats
Joint Arab List 5 (-7)
Ta'al 7 (+6...breaking off from the Arab List)

Receiving some support in polls but not likely to win seats
Gesher (new, independent party meant to be more centrist version of Yisrael Beiteinu)
Jewish Home (-5, right-wing)
Zehut (new, Libertarian)
Yachad (Cannibalized by Likud in 2015, right-wing)
Otzma (far-right, super racist anti-Arab nationalist group, has never won a seat)

[Edited on February 12, 2019 at 3:18 AM. Reason : -]

2/12/2019 3:13:47 AM

bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

Well...time to throw everything up to this point out the window. At almost the last possible moment before party lists had to be finalized, a new anti-Netanyahu center-left merger was announced between Israel Resilience and Yesh Atid called the "Blue & White Alliance."

These parties together, which currently only hold 11 seats, are projected now to win 35 seats based on polling data, compared to 30 for Netanyahu's Likud party. If the election reflects those numbers, Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid would alternate being Prime Minister in two-year increments until the next election...if they can gather seats from other partner parties.

Reports are calling this the absolute best chance Israelis have had to oust Netanyahu since he took power.

2/21/2019 8:44:22 PM

0EPII1
All American
41113 Posts
user info
edit post

^ But this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/25/pro-israel-us-group-condemns-netanyahu-pact-with-extremists

Enough is enough, I really hope this evil POS walks into a moving bus.

2/25/2019 10:45:50 AM

bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

You know a sitting prime minister has made a bad move when even AIPAC condemns him for it. He's doing everything he can to lock in the far-righters because he knows he's losing the center.

2/26/2019 2:26:46 PM

bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

Corruption charges incoming on Netanyahu. Indictment is imminent.

2/28/2019 2:14:09 PM

Bullet
All American
24579 Posts
user info
edit post

Does this mean that Israeli Justice Department is anti-semitic?

2/28/2019 2:35:22 PM

TerdFerguson
All American
6083 Posts
user info
edit post

so this new coalition, if they win, is there a real chance of an improvement in:

-the Palestinian situation
-agitation toward Iran
-Israeli prime ministers campaigning against liberals in the US?????

Seems like the leaders of the new coalition are defense/intelligence people, but also “better than BiBi” is a pretty low bar to clear.

2/28/2019 7:05:49 PM

GrumpyGOP
yovo yovo bonsoir
17793 Posts
user info
edit post

Being in defense or intelligence is hardly a surefire indicator of being a fanatically nationalist tool of a country's far-right. To the limited extent I follow Israeli politics - and really just generally across the board, with noteworthy exceptions - I trust a career military person to be more pragmatic about that kind of issue than I would a career politician. I understand that Netanyahu did his time and then some in the IDF, which I respect; but he's been a pol of one kind or another for close on 40 years.

2/28/2019 7:18:40 PM

TerdFerguson
All American
6083 Posts
user info
edit post

Maybe? After a decade of Likud, I’m interested to see anyone else have a chance to lead the country. After an initial “Hell Yea” after Netanyahu was indicted, I’m wondering if my expectations are too high (and they really aren’t that high).

2/28/2019 7:50:58 PM

bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

A military leader decided to #walkaway from Likud and went over to the center. That tells me he has major concerns with Netanyahu's foreign policy and would act drastically different.

Based on what I know about the two party leaders who merged, their focus will be on domestic policy and infrastructure and will not try to create influence internationally. There's never knowing what Iran will do, but they will not be instigators (alongside building a stronger national defense).

As far Palestine, Yair Lapid is one of the strongest voices for a peaceful two-state solution. That being said, neither Lapid nor Gantz is publically anti-settlement. So that's something that will have to be figured out as part of peace negotiations. They seem to at least be willing to halt settlement expansion.

3/1/2019 2:03:20 AM

bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

Days after Hamas fired rockets at Tel Aviv, Netanyahu's Likud party took back the lead in election polling. Go figure.

3/20/2019 3:28:37 PM

bdmazur
California Dreamin'
14433 Posts
user info
edit post

Election today. Likud and Blue & White were tied in the last poll at 28 seats predicted for each.

4/9/2019 12:17:38 PM

moron
All American
31451 Posts
user info
edit post

Which one is netanyahu? Is he on his way out? Or is there a nuttier person waiting to take the reins?

4/9/2019 2:15:26 PM

marko
Tom Joad
71942 Posts
user info
edit post

both sides are currently claiming victory

4/9/2019 3:39:20 PM

dtownral
All American
24292 Posts
user info
edit post

^^ likud

gantz is the blue white alliance

4/9/2019 3:50:55 PM

 Message Boards » The Soap Box » Israeli Election 2015 Page 1 [2] 3, Prev Next  
go to top | |
Admin Options : move topic | lock topic

© 2019 by The Wolf Web - All Rights Reserved.
The material located at this site is not endorsed, sponsored or provided by or on behalf of North Carolina State University.
Powered by CrazyWeb v2.37 - our disclaimer.