If you want businesses to be able to reopen safely, get the damn vaccine and stop dragging this out.

This whole exercise should be a lesson to any employees and business proprietors to have an emergency fund. Easier said than done, but this country can't be resilient to the kind of economic shocks we've experienced with the kind of economic irresponsibility with which many people operate in their daily lives. Now I'm one of the biggest China-haters when it comes to the state, the party, the intellectual theft, etc. (although not a person who twists this into some kind of racist ideology toward people of Chinese or broader Asian descent), and I won't forgive them and their poor management and intimidation of truth-tellers allowing this to escape to the rest of the world, then re-writing their response to it AND profiteering from it, but I have to say that their lockdown WORKED. It's because it was strict as hell and people were provided for.

If we had the economic resiliency through personal finance and / or state backing to do a legit hard shutdown, this could have been mostly confined to a six-week ordeal for us rather than what's going to turn out being more than 2 years. But I forgot about the freedom for people to be idiots which we've enshrined.

4/9/2021 5:59:11 PM

Quote :

"If we had the economic resiliency through personal finance and / or state backing to do a legit hard shutdown, this could have been mostly confined to a six-week ordeal for us rather than what's going to turn out being more than 2 years. But I forgot about the freedom for people to be idiots which we've enshrined."

Indeed. You forget that we also had to give trillions to the banks and financial sector and already rich.

Quote :

"This whole exercise should be a lesson to any employees and business proprietors to have an emergency fund. "

This is nice in theory but many businesses wouldn't exist without living on the edge. 90% of restaurants for example.

[Edited on April 9, 2021 at 6:44 PM. Reason : a]

4/9/2021 6:40:20 PM

If you can't shut it down and live on a shoestring for six weeks, you're at huge risk.

4/9/2021 6:50:30 PM

Get 2nd on 14th at 1pm

4/9/2021 8:41:40 PM

Quote :

" The reason it's worse in LA is because rent is fucking $4000. Half your disposable income if you make $200K at a tech startup (most people don't). LA is filled with people doing shit jobs trying to make it. Most people have tons of roommates. The foot print of most stores is also really small, so a Trader Joes has 10x as many people as one further out. "

You’re joking, right? Pre-pandemic, SF rents for a 1BR APARTMENT were $3500 a month. LA COL is way lower than the Bay Area as a whole. FOH trying to tell me cost of living and overcrowding is worse in LA than SF, let alone the Bay Area. Didn’t you actually live up here for a min? Rents have dropped quite a bit in SF, but home values are still white hot.

SF is the second mostly densely populated city in the US, after NYC, and it has less than 500 deaths. Alameda county is 1.5 M, and only ~1500 deaths. Santa Clara county, which is arguable the most LA-like county in the Bay Area didn’t do so great, but the Sac Region/East/North Bay all did way better than SoCal counties. LA has world renowned universities and medical facilities, but the general attitude was fuck everyone, I gotta go do to the beach and we will just host ragers in the Hollywood Hills and have massive underground parties. Gotta get my hairs and nails done! Gonna go to CrossFit anyway and get yoked! Combined with the massive protests, and everyone ignoring the advice to not gather over Thanksgiving/Xmas was what makes SoCal a covid cesspool. Life in the Bay has been rough, and parts of Oakland are nothing to brag about, but people took this shit way more seriously from the get go and we have the data to back it up. Aside from when the Floyd riots got really bad in Oakland/Sf/Walnut Creek, it’s been people just sucking it up, working from home, ordering drinks/food for taking and doing nothing but working virtually nonstop, and gig/service workers faced really strict mask/distancing mandates, which were openly flouted/ignored in places like OC and the IE.

Newsom sucks, but he doesn’t deserve to be recalled—especially since the people funding it were all Antivaxxers/anti maskers to begin with, but he’d be hailed as a saint/hero if SoCal and the Central Valley didn’t get hit so hard.

Again, it’s cultural. Seattle got hit hard and early, but fared way better than most. Introverted
, science fearing nerds, combined with a more workaholic, yet collectivist mindset is why NorCal is already inching back to normality faster than SoCal.

Face it, LA is the same kinds of people who live in Dallas and Miami- materialistic and self important, and they figured that what happened in NYC wouldn’t apply to them. Having lived in both SoCal and NorCal, the differences are far more cultural than anything related to weather or COL.

[Edited on April 10, 2021 at 2:16 AM. Reason : .]

4/10/2021 2:13:27 AM

Still not sure how Cael can justify not getting vaccinated when his job is to sit in the cockpit of a plane for hours at a time in close proximity to another person breathing the same air.

4/10/2021 8:53:58 AM

^ that's not my job. I own two planes and fly for fun. If anyone is in the plane with me it's my wife. Most of the places I go post covid have crew cars that can be checked out with a lock box. I keep beater cars at a few airports so I can just get in and go. No interaction with anyone.

Wife is a pilot too.


[Edited on April 10, 2021 at 10:23 AM. Reason : A]

4/10/2021 10:20:52 AM

^^^ I think you're right on the hunkering down. I said as much in my post. What I was getting at was LA has more poor and industries that can't work from home. There's a lot of narcissistic tiktok parties too for sure.

Don't get the crossfit thing. Other than being a class, it's kind of fucked up to dissuade people from getting in better shape when the virus has like a 3x risk of complications if obese.

[Edited on April 10, 2021 at 10:30 AM. Reason : A]

4/10/2021 10:27:42 AM

Got the Johnson and Johnson vaccine yesterday at Central. Only had to push a few blood clots back into my veins when they popped up.

4/10/2021 10:46:45 AM

Quote :

"Don't get the crossfit thing. Other than being a class, it's kind of fucked up to dissuade people from getting in better shape when the virus has like a 3x risk of complications if obese."

Crossfit is a cult. Many cults have some positive aspects. But they're still cults. No one is dissuading people from getting in better shape, they're dissuading them from joining a toxic cult.

4/10/2021 10:59:31 AM

^speaks the truth

4/10/2021 12:46:44 PM

Just got my first Moderna.

4/10/2021 1:37:33 PM

Quote :

" Most of the places I go post covid"

What do you mean “post covid”?

4/10/2021 4:27:45 PM

Oh, you didn't hear? The COVID plandemic is over so Joe Biden can look good now.

4/10/2021 4:43:30 PM

After March 2020.

4/10/2021 5:00:39 PM

Cael probably does kipping pull-ups

4/10/2021 6:50:07 PM

Nah just dead hang. As not agreeable as I am, you think I'd put up with a fucking class? Have a decked out home gym.

I'd rather someone do kipping pullups than spend $100K on kidney dialysis after diabetes takes it's toll. Probably in the minority here.

[Edited on April 10, 2021 at 6:53 PM. Reason : A]

4/10/2021 6:52:28 PM

Quote :

" After March 2020."

Oh ok. Don’t think I’ve ever heard anybody refer to the present as “post covid” before. That threw me. I gotcha.

4/11/2021 7:01:34 AM

My two week clearance after the 2nd dose is tomorrow, so I'm going into the office for 3 days/week for the time being until they decide what to do on a more permanent basis for office/WFH scheduling. Unpopular opinion, but working from home has been awful and a complete distraction for me.

4/12/2021 11:48:35 AM

Copped my second shot.

4/12/2021 6:37:55 PM

second Moderna received death today

4/12/2021 8:48:47 PM

J&J pulled.

Like I always say: If it hasn't been out for five years you are a test jumper.

Guess my top pick is now Moderna.

4/13/2021 9:13:01 AM

Quote :

"I see this line a lot too, especially with the big scary "FDA UNAPPROVED" slant. FDA approval vs FDA emergency authorization are more or less just bureaucratic terms used to differentiate the level of paperwork and duration of clinical trials required. It's just risk management terminology, and people too often interpret it to mean that these vaccines are junk that will fuck up our DNA or something. And especially considering we have over a year of real world data now, and millions of vaccine recipients, we have a lot of data showing the safety and efficacy of these vaccines. Enough to trust, imo."

It's also a way for vaccine manufactures to not get sued if there are side effects. If you are an unlucky edge case you have no rights. I wouldn't be surprised if the health insurance doesn't pay out either.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/covid-vaccine-side-effects-compensation-lawsuit.html



[Edited on April 13, 2021 at 9:33 AM. Reason : A ]

4/13/2021 9:32:35 AM

6 cases of clots in 6.8 million doses [2]. That's 1 in 1.13 million. The natural occurrence of this clot is 1 in 300,000 [2]. So a rare event, that has occurred less often in the vaccinated group than expected, has paused the roll out of this vaccine. This dumb decision will literally kill people. A dumb decision by people who are supposed to understand risk analysis.

[1] https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/joint-cdc-and-fda-statement-johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerebral_venous_sinus_thrombosis#Epidemiology

4/13/2021 10:26:10 AM

The point is the edge cases. Looks like the winner is women susceptible to clots... Maybe birth control interaction. It could be people that eat too many blackberries.

As it rolls out wider there will be other interactions. 1.0 products always have bugs, and this is still a beta. They will fix them and you can continue to #believescience.

[Edited on April 13, 2021 at 10:35 AM. Reason : A]

[Edited on April 13, 2021 at 10:36 AM. Reason : A ]

4/13/2021 10:33:58 AM

Quote :

" Like I always say: If it hasn't been out for five years you are a test jumper."

imagine giving yourself a catchphrase

4/13/2021 10:43:16 AM

After watching friends get paralyzed and die rushing out to buy the hot new shit toy you'll try to come up with a way to simply convey risk to n00bs too.

It helps trying to temper the desires of younger jumpers/pilots who have more enthusiasm than sense.

[Edited on April 13, 2021 at 10:51 AM. Reason : A]

4/13/2021 10:50:58 AM

^^^ Mind translating that into English?

Bad things happening less often than expected is usually a good thing.

4/13/2021 10:56:42 AM

Early products have unforeseen flaws. They are discovered and fixed overtime. This is true of planes, trains, automobiles, software, and even vaccines.

Interaction can happen because of asinine things like a mulberry allergy, that you take a nonstandard amount of benadryl or the environment you live in has a pollutant. Not mentioning genetic components. You can't find all the interactions without lots of test subjects and time.

4/13/2021 11:03:48 AM

Alright so you could get the vaccine, get a blood clot and die. Or you could not get the vaccine, catch COVID, and die. Maybe the government and media could make sure people understand the likelihood of each?

4/13/2021 11:10:41 AM

I will be 2 weeks post-second-dose of Pfizer on April 15! The worst part of each was that the bandaid ripped out some hair while removing it.

4/13/2021 12:14:11 PM

Quote :

"Alright so you could get the vaccine, get a blood clot and die. Or you could not get the vaccine, catch COVID, and die."

I think you mean or you could not get the vaccine, catch covid, and have a much, much higher likelihood of getting a blood and dying.

4/13/2021 12:21:44 PM

I have access to SinoVac (traditional whole weakened virus vaccine) and Pfizer (mRNA vaccine).

Can't decide which one to go for.


SinoVac:

Pros:
Traditional vaccine technology that is 2+ centuries old.

Cons:
Lower efficacy rate, in the 50-70% range.
Made in China (is that racist?).


Pfizer:

Pros:
Higher efficacy rate at 95%.
Made in Europe (is that racist?)

Cons:
First mRNA vaccine ever -- new technology.

4/13/2021 12:23:32 PM

I wonder if the fact they're using a weakened virus means it increases the chances of a mutation?

4/13/2021 1:50:37 PM

Sinovac: no released data from clinical trials

Pfizer: released data from clinical trials

4/13/2021 2:59:27 PM

seems like a lot of the "99% of people who get covid recover from it, stop living in fear!" people are also "this vaccine killed a handful of people out of millions, i ain't takin it" people

4/13/2021 4:19:52 PM

Because they're dumb

4/13/2021 4:36:43 PM

A more correct analysis would be there are unknown unknowns, and now we have one known unknown which is not that big a deal. The point I was making was always about the unknown unknowns.

Interestingly Grumpy's main argument was of the line "you could kill grandma you selfish fuck." Most of the information on transmission with the vaccine is a shit show. Until a few days ago they were still saying you could transmit covid if you had the vaccine. Fauci even said we should double mask and ban inside dining even if vaccinated.

Currently seems like you do not transmit covid if vaccinated, but that is fairly new information.

4/13/2021 4:41:17 PM

You don't think contracting the virus is an unknown unknown for any one individual? You keep talking about edge cases with the vaccine. What about the edge cases where a "perfectly healthy young person" got COVID and died because of some quirk in their genetics or the environment? Getting vaccinated is unquestionably the better call if this is all about playing the odds and considering the edge cases.

4/13/2021 5:05:40 PM

Back when you'd see young person dies articles trying to play up the panic I never saw a case where someone was healthy. I know there are probably exceptions, but anything sold as "young healthy person dies" was like 70 lbs over obese with some genetic condition like downs. Don't you think the media would run that shit every second if there was a real case?

Glasss is the first person I've encountered that has such a story in "real life."

4/13/2021 6:15:52 PM

The sample size of TWW in 2021 is like 20 people.

4/13/2021 7:28:52 PM

Where did fauci say to ban indoor dining?

4/13/2021 9:48:09 PM

mRNA vaccines have been studied for 50 years. Yes, they are newer, relatively unproven tech, but they're not completely unknown. And there's good reason to believe they'll end up being far superior vaccine development method.

https://youtu.be/XPeeCyJReZw

Re: sinovac

https://youtu.be/3CuPqeIJr3U

4/13/2021 10:15:26 PM

^ thanks for posting that. I know Americans don't generally care much about what goes on in other countries, but we basically copied off of Asia's homework when it comes to the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines.

I also find it rich that a frigging recreational pilot who has made his seemingly high net worth abundantly obvious is afraid of the vaccine, because, um, nothing is 100% known.

4/14/2021 12:33:34 AM

Quote :

"I meticulously trained and learned, analyzed accidents obsessively. Situations with bad conditions on a jump I walked down. In flying I didn't just do the basic training. I got my instrument and commercial ratings as well as did more advanced emergency training."

There aren't any unknowns.

4/14/2021 12:56:50 AM

But it does seem inconsistent to accept the risks of a <5yo virus but not a <5yo vaccine

4/14/2021 1:25:30 AM

Did you miss the part where I have no chance on getting it? If I had to go to work or interact with the general public I'd get it. I'm not trying to move to Texas and bar hop or go to fucking Costco.

[Edited on April 14, 2021 at 1:37 AM. Reason : A ]

4/14/2021 1:36:44 AM

This guy is just not going to interact with anyone ever again!

4/14/2021 5:50:08 AM

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/expert-risk-of-blood-clots-from-vaccine-much-less-than-from-covid-without-it/19625232//

4/14/2021 10:14:44 AM

Quote :

" Back when you'd see young person dies articles trying to play up the panic I never saw a case where someone was healthy. I know there are probably exceptions, but anything sold as "young healthy person dies" was like 70 lbs over obese with some genetic condition like downs. Don't you think the media would run that shit every second if there was a real case?"

Dying is far from the only bad thing that can happen if you get covid. It’s not you either die or 100% recover. Plenty of examples of longer term and lingering issues with people who had covid.

4/14/2021 10:59:10 AM