Things could change, but it seems like Microsoft has been losing market share in its core businesses and playing catch-up with mobile devices for years now. Nobody has a crystal ball, but signs don't look good for long term growth. I could have my timeline wrong but I think it's more than coincidence that this decline started to come about as Bill Gates reduced his role in the company.

2/6/2011 12:29:24 PM

You saying Microsoft in general, or a specific area of the company. I am not a tech guru, but at least from a superficial standpoint, it 'seems' as if they have firmness in most markets that they offer products/services.

2/6/2011 12:33:58 PM

All large companies eventually reach a point where they stop being a growth company and become a value stalwart. GE, IBM, P&G, etc. Microsoft is at that stage and so long as they don't get completely complacent (ie, someone really does invent an OS and Office suite to rival them) they'll be around in a state of just being, certainly not declining.

2/6/2011 12:34:58 PM

They've lost browser market share and all their attempts to get into mobile devices have been outright failures until Windows phone 7, which is only doing ok. The PC and the laptop markets aren't growing like they once were and cloud computing is slowly becoming a threat. Their share price has been mostly stagnant for a decade (but then again, so has the stock market).

2/6/2011 12:49:58 PM

i thought they were with vista, but things may have turn around a little bit with 7. i use it at work & like it wayyyyy better but all of my home computers (& cell phone) are still apple products. their phone looks kinda neat, but i'll never get one & i don't know anybody who wants or has one. they've got the lock down on the office suite of products i think. i'm not really sure why they charge so damn much for it though. the online documents type thing like google has might take office's place one day, but my guess is that that's a longgggg way off.

i don't know much of anything, like seedless i am not as much of a tech guru as most of you guys here. just a regular consumer's opinion.

[Edited on February 6, 2011 at 1:34 PM. Reason : ]

2/6/2011 1:33:39 PM

no. they've got the pc market on lock.

2/6/2011 1:55:36 PM

people have been talking about Microsoft's decline for over a decade. and yet, they continue to post record quarters

they're certainly not the only game in town anymore, but they are still doing a LOT of relevant work

2/6/2011 1:55:49 PM

Microsoft has over 1200 skus. I challenge any of y'all to come up with more than a dozen.

As an employee I am more excited about the direction of the company today than at any point in the 3 years I've been here. And I've heard the same from people whove been here 15-20 years.

Things were bleak in 08, but man has shit changed since then. Microsoft may only be market dominant in a few consumer areas today, but it's market competitive in so many areas that 2-3 years ago were dead in the water.

2/6/2011 2:50:44 PM

They're following the same track as IBM.

Their past core competence (Windows) is becoming obsolete in a sense. Their Kinect stuff might becoming interesting, so could Windows Phone, but these aren't at the forefront yet.

I think Apple is in the same boat. I don't see them doing enough investment in cloud and "smart" services.

Google is the most forward-looking company now. They have tons of projects that have yet to come to full fruition, and all of their products are geared for the future. No other company that I know of can say that.

MS, Apple, and IBM all have their place in the future, but they are never going to be as great as they have been in the past.

Google still has greatness ahead of it.

2/6/2011 3:07:51 PM

uhhhh....

anyone who says that MS is on the decline doesn't know their ass from their elbow.


you're talking about a company that performs consistently quarter to quarter and hasn't left the top 10 in market cap for at least 13 years. That means they're sitting on the kind of money that only Oil companies bring in.


Cliff's notes: this thread is stupid, Microsoft is an industry leader and is pretty much untouchable.

2/6/2011 10:57:18 PM

^ market cap and even revenue are piss-poor standards for if a company is on the decline or not (unless you define "decline" monetarily).

Apple is currently 2 spots ahead of MS in market cap, #3 in the world below Exxon and PetroChina, would you say they are more important than MS? And only getting better. They'll most likely eclipse PetroChina and MAYBE Exxon within the next year (to be #1 in the world).

In terms of leadership and impact, which are somewhat difficult to measure, MS isn't as important as it used to be.

[Edited on February 7, 2011 at 12:07 AM. Reason : ]

2/7/2011 12:05:40 AM

Quote :

"Microsoft has over 1200 skus. I challenge any of y'all to come up with more than a dozen."

Not to derail the topic of the thread, but this would be the easiest challenge ever. I mean, doesn't Windows 7 have at least six SKUs? I think Vista had more than a dozen just on its own.

2/7/2011 12:53:29 AM

not to mention all the different M$ mice and keyboard combos out there LOL

2/7/2011 12:57:23 AM

^^I should have said products, but yeah you are definitely right.

No one ever talks about the non-consumer MS product spaces though. Dynamics, SQL Server, Windows Server, Exchange, Azure, Xbox, Mediaroom, HPC, Visual Studio, SharePoint to name a few.

I wouldn't say that Microsoft is nearly the monopoly, industry dominating giant it may have been 10-15 years ago, but if you're talking about GROWTH, damn near every market Microsoft is in has products and strategies that have high growth potential.

2/7/2011 1:05:38 AM

http://arstechnica.com/apple/guides/2011/02/does-this-metric-make-my-company-look-big.ars

Here's a slightly relevant article just published 3 hours ago... weird...

Quote :

"In the summer of 1999, Microsoft's market cap was an absolutely massive $474 billion for a short while, and the company looked ready to challenge the mythical trillion-dollar level in short order. Windows 95 and Microsoft Office took the company that far, and then bad things started to happen. Today's cap is less than half as large"

[Edited on February 7, 2011 at 1:56 AM. Reason : ]

2/7/2011 1:55:27 AM

Quote :

"anyone who says that MS is on the decline doesn't know their ass from their elbow."

kiljadn with the word. I don't think anyone is saying they're achieving the same kind of growth they have in the past, but being a stable and expanding force does not in any way equate to declination.

2/7/2011 2:10:10 AM

^ not being as good as you were is the definition of declination…?

They aren’t ruined or even beleaguered, but they definitely have declined, and may still be in decline.

[Edited on February 7, 2011 at 2:37 AM. Reason : ]

2/7/2011 2:16:49 AM

Most people have a very short-sighted few of tech markets. For example, "mobile devices" are much, much more than just WP7/Android/iOS smartphones. Most every piece of field and mobile enterprise hardware I've ever come across is a Windows CE/Embedded device: Trimble, Symbol, AIS, Unitech, Intermec, etc.

OS sales are doing just splendid (especially Win7 adoption). Microsoft is pretty much the authority for cloud computing (there is good reason why Jobs' Pixar chose Microsoft's Azure cloud computing framework to put their RenderMan engine "in the cloud"). Office is still king with no end to the reign in sight. Exchange has a 65% market share and shows continued growth. Microsoft has the #1 server OS in the world with continued growth. Microsoft has the fastest growth in the relational database market (has the lead in emerging markets) and is the fastest growing CRM. Bing is serving up 29% of the search market share and growing (thats almost 3 times the market share that Mac has vs. PC, 10.5%). Xbox ain't doing too shabby either.

[Edited on February 7, 2011 at 4:36 AM. Reason : Ballmer isn't losing any sleep.]

2/7/2011 4:35:54 AM

Quote :

"They've lost browser market share and all their attempts to get into mobile devices have been outright failures until Windows phone 7, which is only doing ok. The PC and the laptop markets aren't growing like they once were and cloud computing is slowly becoming a threat. Their share price has been mostly stagnant for a decade (but then again, so has the stock market)."

They're innovating here a lot. Tons and Tons of patents.

2/7/2011 7:11:51 AM

Quote :

"market cap and even revenue are piss-poor standards for if a company is on the decline or not (unless you define "decline" monetarily)"

of course you define it monetarily... why would you define it with any other standard?

if you start trying to define it by market share, then that's always a losing battle. Tech changes from week to week and market shares change to reflect that.

Quote :

"Apple is currently 2 spots ahead of MS in market cap, #3 in the world below Exxon and PetroChina, would you say they are more important than MS? And only getting better. They'll most likely eclipse PetroChina and MAYBE Exxon within the next year (to be #1 in the world)"

Apple doesn't have the reach to maintain that position, though. While Apple is busy killing products and consolidating focus, MS has a broader reach because of its product diversity. See Noen's post. And I'd really like to see Apple maintain a top 10 position for the next 13 years based solely off of consumer products. That's not going to happen, ever. Five quarters is good, but it's not a kingmaker by any stretch of the imagination. And as far as them overtaking Petrochina and Exxon... it may happen. MS been on top a time or two themselves. But it won't be for long, and it certainly wont be permanent. That's a discussion for TSB, though.


There are products that MS will remain untouched in for years that could and most likely will sustain the company without any issue, and those products that they do have competition in (consumer and enterprise OSes for example) will only thrive, because that's how business works to begin with.

[Edited on February 7, 2011 at 8:37 AM. Reason : .]

2/7/2011 8:26:54 AM

They are in decline the same way IBM is in decline

2/7/2011 8:34:26 AM

http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/20110201/tc_pcworld/googleclaimssearchresultscopiedbybing

2/7/2011 8:58:41 AM

I don't know anyone who uses Microsoft products for cloud computing

2/7/2011 3:31:35 PM

Quote :

"They are in decline the same way IBM is in decline"

2/7/2011 3:34:24 PM

Quote :

"http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/20110201/tc_pcworld/googleclaimssearchresultscopiedbybing"

That was totally bullshit and you know it... read more than a headline.

Quote :

"I don't know anyone who uses Microsoft products for cloud computing"

Pixar, Tribune Co., Associated Press, NASA, Siemens, 3M, Lockheed Martin, Daimler, AXA, InfoSys... a bunch of nobodies. Temenos, world's leader in banking software systems, just announced a core banking system's move to Azure cloud services today:
http://yhoo.it/e86AOj

2/7/2011 4:14:22 PM

Quote :

"http://www.businessknowhow.com/money/crisis.htm Why IBM Profits Rose 20 Percent While World Markets Fell 20 Percent"

Yes.... total failures. MS May be losing some minor part in mindshare, but just like IBM they're still making BANK. They're diverse, they're well positioned, and they they pack cash in coffers day in and day out. Just like their Win7 install base passed the entire OSX install base in like 22 days of sales (if i remember correctly.)

IBM doesn't do the PC gig anymore, but their supercomputers power our nation. And like 6 of the top10 biggest and baddest in the world. Not to mention their software is working behind the scenes in thousands of applications.

Just because they're not as visible doesn't mean decline by any far stretch of the imagination.

2/7/2011 4:24:19 PM

Quote :

"That was totally bullshit and you know it... read more than a headline."

do you have evidence to support your point of view? because microsoft doesn't have anything but a tenuous explanation that also can't be proven...it's awfully convenient that they just happened to be so good at recording irrelevant information from the minuscule number of people who opted in for data collection AND happened to run bogus searches

http://www.zdnet.com/photos/does-bing-copy-google-search-the-evidence-screenshots/6190648

i don't really care, myself...i use google because they're superior to microsoft's bing, not because i hate microsoft...i do find it convenient that the only one of the two that can "prove" anything whatsoever is google

2/7/2011 4:49:10 PM

hehe, this thread is funny.

2/7/2011 5:56:44 PM

Quote :

"do you have evidence to support your point of view? because microsoft doesn't have anything but a tenuous explanation that also can't be proven...it's awfully convenient that they just happened to be so good at recording irrelevant information from the minuscule number of people who opted in for data collection AND happened to run bogus searches http://www.zdnet.com/photos/does-bing-copy-google-search-the-evidence-screenshots/6190648 i don't really care, myself...i use google because they're superior to microsoft's bing, not because i hate microsoft...i do find it convenient that the only one of the two that can "prove" anything whatsoever is google"

Did you actually read any of it? The way the results ended up in Bing is because Google basically committed classic click-fraud. They gamed the system and managed to get a few of them to trickle through. A google employee used IE with the Bing toolbar and specifically entered the malformed queries. The toolbar is an opt-in that explicitly states it looks at your behavior and will collect information about what you do to improve its services. The toolbar sees someone type in "mbzrxpgjys" into the box (regardless of the targeted search engine: Google, Bing, Yahoo, Ask, Wiki, etc.) and they intentionally click-through to the honeypot page that Google had setup as the "sting" site (they rigged Google to show that site when that specific garbage word was entered). Since the garbage word has no way of being tracked through any of the 1000 different search metrics Bing uses, Google was able to get a couple of them to sneak through. This would not work with legitimate search terms. Basically, google just got real creative and figured out a way to specifically game the Bing algorithm to get a few freak instances to show as "copying." They technically could have just as easily made it look like Bing was stealing search results from Yahoo or Ask. If you would read more than the headline and a few picture captions you might actually understand what happened.

BTW, microsoft has fully explained this and google has acknowledged the method they used but knew that the Headlines "Bing copies Google" would spread like wildfire on the internet since people love a good anti-Microsoft story and wouldn't take the time to read any follow up.

[Edited on February 7, 2011 at 6:13 PM. Reason : btw]

2/7/2011 6:10:06 PM

^Yep. You can't say people are copying results when you opt into explicit add-on software who's entire stated purpose is to observe and report behavior (btw, Google's browser toolbar does the EXACT same thing). It's fucking silliness.

Quote :

"They are in decline the same way IBM is in decline"

I would completely disagree. IBM has fundamentally changes its revenue model over the past decade. Microsoft diversified and reinvested in existing markets.

From my perspective, IBM is essentially a giant (and I do mean giant) consulting services company now, and pretty much that's the only long term game they are playing. It's funny because IBM pretty owns (like 90%+ marketshare) several huge industries, but the ground is literally disappearing under their feet. Their markets and customers are shifting massively around them and I've seen zilch that says IBM is ready for or has any answer to these impending upheavals.

IBM supercomputing is a dead-end business. Once Google, Microsoft and Amazon really ramp their cloud offerings, supercomputing clusters are going to be relics. Now the software and services ON TOP OF that are opportunities for IBM, but I haven't seen any indications of them straying from their "our cluster, our services" mentality.

They unloaded their pc and laptops. They've bought up the entire existing Requirement Management market, and to some degree enterprise source control, and have been pushing Rational and Team Concert for a few years now. But it's all existing market consolidation, nothing that shows any promise of real growth.

wwwebsurfer hit the nail on the head:

Quote :

"Just because they're not as visible doesn't mean decline by any far stretch of the imagination."

Consumer markets != business outlook. Just because you dont hear about cloud computing on MTV doesn't mean there's not a huge market there.

2/7/2011 7:26:26 PM

see ya, quagmire

2/7/2011 7:29:23 PM

hah, you guys assume i care one iota...i heard it on wait wait don't tell me and used the first link that came up

i couldn't care less what microsoft does with their shitastic search engine...i haven't used bing since they had cash back and only then because the pertinent slickdeals threads told me exactly what to search to get microsoft to give me cash monies

more than $700 in all the time...i guess i owe microsoft SOMETHING

2/7/2011 7:56:27 PM

you cared enough to post it in the first place, then respond to it. You obviously care about it to some degree because you actually qualified your perceived of Bing as "shittastic". I'd be curious to hear just exactly what metrics you use to qualify something as "shittastic" rather than just "not as good as" or "I prefer".

I use both search engines today. Google is worlds better for some things, Bing for others.

2/7/2011 8:46:39 PM

I think Bing's image and video search engine is better than google. And I use both Bing and Google for generic searches since I use both IE and Chrome.

2/7/2011 9:10:13 PM

^^ you got me

i cried a river when i found out that the great Noen was going to give microsoft a rim job rather than agree with my 3.5-second contribution to this thread by posting a link

really, CRIED A RIVER

i realize now that i've never actually paid for a microsoft product (i mean, between pirating when i was a poor student and free stuff through MSDNAA now)...and they've paid ME more than $700...i think they're my favorite company when it comes down to it...thanks for your hard work

[Edited on February 7, 2011 at 9:27 PM. Reason : .]

2/7/2011 9:25:10 PM

quagmire02 has been jailed after posting for causing a river to flood, resulting in the deaths of 48 persons.

2/7/2011 10:13:43 PM

^^Love your complete inability to actually respond to anything with even a hint of class.

You posted a debunked and inflammatory link that had nothing to do with the OP.
Then followed the debunking with a "I didnt care anyway" post, again having nothing to do with the OP.
Then you followed by calling a service, which by your own words you have quite a favorable impresson of, shittastic.
Then when asked WHY you called something shittastic, you accuse me of giving a company a "rim job"?

Classy man, real classy. Way to, once again, not contribute anything and make yourself look like a fool.

[Edited on February 7, 2011 at 10:14 PM. Reason : .]

2/7/2011 10:14:29 PM

we all kinda knew that already...

2/7/2011 10:15:37 PM

in the home computing market? not a all. mobile phones? open sourced alternatives (like android) are expected to dominate that market over the next 5 years or something like that.

2/7/2011 10:43:53 PM

Bing continues to grab market share from google:

http://www.liveside.net/2011/02/08/hitwise-bing-us-search-share-up-21-over-2-percentage-points-google-down/


And by the way, if you wanted a nice impartial breakdown of the Bing/Google fiasco then go here:
http://searchengineland.com/bing-why-googles-wrong-in-its-accusations-63279

2/8/2011 2:54:52 PM

damn, didn't realize yahoo is that low now... then again I haven't used yahoo since 1997 for search engine, although their financials are great resources.

2/8/2011 3:00:42 PM

^^I'm not sure what that's supposed to prove.

Search is pretty mundane, it just paves the way for ad revenue.

And that gain couldnt be because it's the default for IE, now, could it? And MS pays some OEMs to make it default?

[Edited on February 8, 2011 at 3:31 PM. Reason : ]

2/8/2011 3:07:04 PM

not proving a damn thing, just thought it was interesting that yahoo got that low.

2/8/2011 3:29:11 PM

i missed an arrow there. sry

2/8/2011 3:32:00 PM

Quote :

"I'm not sure what that's supposed to prove. Search is pretty mundane, it just paves the way for ad revenue. And that gain couldnt be because it's the default for IE, now, could it? And MS pays some OEMs to make it default?"

Figured it was appropriate since the premise of the thread was that Microsoft was on the decline. I was showing that they are making strides in a market dominated by a juggernaut.

Search might be mundane but it built the Google empire so I wouldn't exactly dismiss it. Google isn't all that well diversified in terms of revenue so them losing search market share is HUGE (hence, their bullshit "Bing copies us!!1" attack).

IE browser share has steadily declined while Google-defaulted browsers Firefox and Chrome are showing growth. So, Bing is showing steady growth while its default browser is declining: people are actively choosing to use Bing.

--
Also saw this today... Apple loses online video market share (-10% to 64.5) and Microsoft's Zune gains (+6.3% to 17.9)
http://www.twice.com/article/463602-Apple_Loses_Online_Video_Share_But_Still_Tops.php?rssid=20313

2/8/2011 5:38:08 PM

^and bing is only the default search provider on some new oem pcs in the US. Outside the US, you get prompted on first opening of IE which search provider to use.

Also, installing a new version of IE (9) doesn't touch your search settings.

The numbers are however still a bit misleading. Yahoo is gone from the list because they started using bing. So the 22-26% share number is partly due to swallowing yahoos market share.

2/8/2011 6:20:08 PM

Anyone else have any troubles installing .NET 4 to their machine. Win 7 x64 and this is about the dumbest install I've ever seen.

3/24/2011 5:37:40 PM

^I had no probs.

^^^AFAIK Opera and Splashtop (a Linux distro, mostly for HP computers, in the vein of Chrome OS) default to Bing, while Firefox defaults to Yandex in Russia and Baidu in China.

In any case I always change my default search engine to Google SSL: https://encrypted.google.com/

3/24/2011 5:54:59 PM

i've installed .net4 on win7 x64 half a dozen times with no problems that i can recall. it may have prompted me to reboot in the middle of the installation, but that's it

3/24/2011 6:22:17 PM

Its actually the Visual Studio 10 Shell (isolated, if that matters) that just wonks out.

3/24/2011 7:29:07 PM