When it comes from another candidate running - it is

1/29/2020 4:50:24 PM

it's really not though. but that's ok, believe what you want to believe!

Yang's campaign continues to surge. He's going to exceed expectations at the Iowa caucus.

I posted yesterday but it's official now - Yang won the Iowa Youth Straw poll, which has historically been pretty accurate, and predicted both Obama and Trump



[Edited on January 29, 2020 at 5:17 PM. Reason : caucus night is going to be exciting ]

1/29/2020 5:15:06 PM

As a Bernie 2016 survivor, I appreciate the optimism, but he won't win more than 5%. The most strategic option would be for Yang to drop out, endorse, and maybe gain a spot in the Bernie WH.

1/29/2020 5:42:48 PM

^^ so if that straw poll is a reliably predictor (lol), why are you excited that trump won?

1/29/2020 8:11:00 PM

so what are the odds any Democrat is going to beat Trump, qfred

since u know a lot of stuff :3

1/29/2020 8:23:35 PM

^^ I missed the part where I said I was excited that Trump won the Iowa Youth Straw Poll. and don't act like if Bernie had won it, Bernie world wouldn't have been celebrating it and pointing out that the youth vote is an indicator of longer term trends

^ too early to say for sure. but I will repost this

Quote :

"Alan Lichtman, an American University professor who has correctly predicted the outcome of the past nine presidential elections and author of The Case For Impeachment," told HILL.TV this week that based on his predictive system Donald Trump might be on course to win in 2020 unless the economy falters or he is impeached. He also had some suggestions for Democrats about who to nominate to defeat Trump, saying "the conventional wisdom is all wrong." "The conventional wisdom you hear from Nancy Pelosi and others is we need to go down the center line and nominate an establishment, experienced, proven candidate, and they’ve done that many times," he said, listing: "Mike Dukakis in 1988, Al Gore in 2000, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton." "And what do they all have in common? They all lost," he said. "It’s the off-the-wall candidates -- the Carters, the [Bill] Clintons, the Obamas -- who no one expected who have won." "

Quote :

"As a Bernie 2016 survivor, I appreciate the optimism, but he won't win more than 5%."

I also supported Bernie in 2016. We didn't appreciate Hillary telling Bernie supporters he didn't have a chance then and should drop out, so why do I hear the same thing from so many Bernie supporters this time? Just bc he lost the nomination last time doesn't mean he gets a free pass this time, just like Clinton and Biden didnt. Let people vote for who they want to vote for and we'll see how things turn out, k


good stuff right here!



[Edited on January 30, 2020 at 10:03 AM. Reason : .]

1/30/2020 9:45:51 AM

Quote :

"so if that straw poll is a reliably predictor (lol), why are you excited that trump won?"

I imagine he believes that the fact that more total people voted Democrat than Republican in that straw poll is probably a good sign that whoever gets the Democratic nomination, will win.

Trump essentially landed every Republican vote, I just don't see Bernie fans voting for Trump if Yang gets the nom, nor do I see Biden or Warren's supporters flipping and voting Republican.

1/30/2020 10:14:41 AM

Quote :

"Mike Dukakis in 1988, Al Gore in 2000, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton." "And what do they all have in common? They all lost," he said. "It’s the off-the-wall candidates -- the Carters, the [Bill] Clintons, the Obamas -- who no one expected who have won.""

Im curious how the define establishment vs off the wall here. Carter ran as "outside" in the primary but he had been in govt for over a decade. Same for Clinton and he gave the opening address at the previous Dem convention. Obama had been a senator for the relatively short time but also gave a speech at the previous convention, and was super well known. Dukakis seems more off the wall then either Clinton or Obama, at least based on polling and name recognition at the time.

Compared to any of these people, yang is far more unknown, way less experience, and quite lower polling then most. Seems like he would be an outlier to the "off the wall" people. Bernie or Warren would fit more closely. Mayor Pete would also be a bit of an outlier. Basically your article just says "anybody but Biden" I guess?

1/30/2020 10:34:48 AM

Quote :

"^^ I missed the part where I said I was excited that Trump won the Iowa Youth Straw Poll. and don't act like if Bernie had won it, Bernie world wouldn't have been celebrating it and pointing out that the youth vote is an indicator of longer term trends "

i'm not even doing that for real polls


^ very weird that he posted that again ignoring that it was already responded to the last time he posted it

[Edited on January 30, 2020 at 10:42 AM. Reason : deja vu]

1/30/2020 10:41:40 AM

Heh I guess I just accidentally posted a longer version of what you posted.

I'm not even saying Yang can or can't win. If he somehow wins the nomination, I suspect he would have a decent chance, like any Dem nominee. I just don't think that article snippet supports his candidacy, or even makes sense on its own.


I went to soap box to see the original link and the context changes. They focused on the candidates in the pull out to imply "historian predictor says select this type of candidate" but he listed that as purely an anecdotal argument. His main predictor has to do with a bunch of factors and he explicitly states the candidate barely matters.

Quote :

"But I've been told many times, it can't work in 2008 because we have an African American candidate, it can't work in 2016 because we have a woman candidate and that changes everything, and I remain steadfast. Until I'm proven wrong, I'm going to say this system works."

[Edited on January 30, 2020 at 10:54 AM. Reason : E]

1/30/2020 10:49:22 AM

Quote :

"I also supported Bernie in 2016. We didn't appreciate Hillary telling Bernie supporters he didn't have a chance then and should drop out, so why do I hear the same thing from so many Bernie supporters this time? Just bc he lost the nomination last time doesn't mean he gets a free pass this time, just like Clinton and Biden didnt. Let people vote for who they want to vote for and we'll see how things turn out, k"

Because Bernie has a chance to win (and had one last time until after Super Tuesday) and Yang does not. There is no viable path for Yang - I don't understand what the strategy is here. Do you really think he can win?

1/30/2020 11:24:44 AM

Ludachris is correct regarding my interpretation of the Yang's Iowa Youth Straw Poll victory.


as far as the establishment vs outsider point I made, remember I was responding to Bub's questions

Quote :

"what are the odds any Democrat is going to beat Trump"

which is not the same as "do you think Yang is going to beat Trump" as y'all seem to assume I was arguing

Quote :

"Basically your article just says "anybody but Biden" I guess?"

not quite, it was more of a "traditional politicians are not going to do as well against Trump as some might hope" and that certainly includes Biden. Trump does VERY well against traditional politicians.

While I do like a lot about Warren, I also consider her to not be a very strong candidate vs Trump, and the polls generally show this to be true as well. I think Klobuchar also is a very traditional establishment mold candidate who will not do well against Trump. Steyer and Bloomberg are such glaring representations of the wealth and power inequalities that Normal Americans are so frustrated with in American politics, and for that reason I would be surprised to see them be able to 1) win the Dem nomination or 2) beat Trump.

I do think Bernie can beat Trump. But I think Bernie and his campaign have some very serious risks going into a general election as well. Bernie may have a large passionate base, but over 100M people will vote in 2020. He needs to appeal to more than just his 1M donors. His supporters can't help alienating everybody who doesn't adhere to his #NoMiddleGround philosophy. The establishment machine will continue to try to work against him. He's another elderly white man. He channels frustration with the status quo with a lot of fight and shouting, and while a lot of people trust his sincerity on these matters, his feisty approach doesn't appeal to everybody. Most Americans are tired of divisive politics. They want a positive, optimistic message and approach. That's not Bernie's strong suit. His anti-capitalism views don't appeal to most Americans. Trump and the GOP will use this to erode Independent support. This all said, I think Bernie currently has the 2nd best chance of beating Trump in the Dem field.

y'all have already seen the #MATH on why Yang can beat Trump, but I'll be happy to explain again





[Edited on January 30, 2020 at 12:32 PM. Reason : .]

1/30/2020 12:11:35 PM

Quote :

"which is not the same as "do you think Yang is going to beat Trump" as y'all seem to assume I was arguing"

Gotcha.

1/30/2020 12:23:21 PM

I keep waffling between Yang and Bernie, mostly because Bernie is so old.

1/31/2020 2:25:03 AM

i would support a Sanders/Yang ticket in the general election as long as zero Yang policies were adopted as a part of the platform

if Yang is the nominee i’ll shit in my diaper, register to vote using the identities of dead people, and vote for Trump 10 times

[Edited on January 31, 2020 at 6:20 AM. Reason : r]

1/31/2020 6:17:48 AM

That doesn’t make sense. Your votes won’t count

1/31/2020 9:05:10 AM

On the way to the White House

1/31/2020 10:04:16 AM

1/31/2020 8:02:45 PM

Yang has held over 50 events with voters in the last 2 weeks. Tonight is the last rally before caucus night on Monday

2/1/2020 8:05:32 PM

https://youtu.be/NKE3SaKMm1M
Will Robots Cause Mass Unemployment? A Soho Forum Debate

yang was originally scheduled to be in this debate but he wussed out

2/2/2020 8:36:28 AM

that's actually a really good discussion that I'll def watch at some point. Martin Ford's book The Lights in the Tunnel is one of the first books I read on technological unemployment. and as for Yang, he cancelled in April for an event that was scheduled for September. probably assumed he'd be focusing his energy on different types of events at that point.

2/2/2020 12:11:30 PM

Remember that group of undecided Iowa voters I mentioned in December?

3 out of 9 caucusing for Yang tomorrow night

https://whotv.com/2020/02/02/insiders-pre-caucus-special-edition-2-2-20/

2/2/2020 3:27:32 PM

40% of Yang supporters are

2/2/2020 5:40:29 PM

That's because Yang draws support from independents, conservatives and non-voters in addition to Democrats. You won't beat Trump by speaking only to devoted Democrat loyalists. Which, is a big part of how we ended up with Trump in the first place. The Democrats stopped speaking to half the country. 40% of Americans didn't bother to vote in 2016. If they don't see a candidate they trust and believe in in 2020, they'll probably stay home again. So let's nominate the candidate who will turn non-voters and former Trump voters into Yang voters and win big in November.





[Edited on February 2, 2020 at 5:56 PM. Reason : .]

2/2/2020 5:49:03 PM

But in terms of winning the democratic primary... how many of those people are registered Democrats or are in states with open primaries?

Doesn’t seem like a great strategy at this stage in the game to lean into those crossover voters.

2/2/2020 6:18:36 PM

40 percent of americans don’t vote in every election. And dems picked candidate that was supposed to draw conservatives and independents last time and we got trump

[Edited on February 2, 2020 at 6:41 PM. Reason : S]

2/2/2020 6:40:21 PM

^^I get what you're saying. I wouldn't say he's leaning into any particular demographic of voter though. He's just articulating his vision for America. Not Democrat America. All of America.

I would say it doesn't seem like a great strategy for Democratic voters to lean into candidates who don't have broad appeal. It's up to the voters to choose the candidate with the right vision, not the other way around.



only 15% of Democrats would be disappointed if Yang won the nomination. That's tied with Warren for lowest of all active candidates. But with candidates like Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, who have may very high supporter loyalty to the Democratic party nominee, they have some of the lowest swing voter appeal.

So why WOULDN'T we nominate somebody who appeals to almost all Dems, AND brings in new voters? more voters across the spectrum makes it much easier to defeat Trump at the ballot box.

^ Just because Hillary was politically to the right of Bernie doesn't mean she was courting or even better prepared to court independent or conservative voters.

[Edited on February 2, 2020 at 7:15 PM. Reason : .]

2/2/2020 6:44:24 PM

Well to start because he doesnt actually appeal to most dems

2/2/2020 9:47:45 PM

Rofl, for fucking real.

2/2/2020 9:49:45 PM

Don't like 30% of Dem voters (or any voters) still barely know who yang is?

2/2/2020 10:03:06 PM

Most recent Morning Consult poll, among likely Democratic primary voters.

of people who have an opinion of each candidate, Yang leads the way in favorability with 79% of opinions being favorable. Closest is Biden and Bernie with 77.7% and Warren and Buttigieg at 75.3%

I think he appeals just fine to most Democrats, especially given he does still have relatively low familiarity




[Edited on February 2, 2020 at 10:26 PM. Reason : #YangMediaBlackout]

2/2/2020 10:13:49 PM

I think we should mentally and physically prepare for Yang's rising. My God. This is something I've never seen before.

2/3/2020 10:49:39 AM

Where are people filling out all these damn polls? I want a random pre-election poll to come across my desk.

2/3/2020 11:00:40 AM

you can sign up to take YouGov polls but you might as well not bother, as they just end up excluding recently registered survey participants from their published results. maybe sign up now and your poll responses will count next cycle

as for that emerson poll, Yang discussed it on MSNBC this morning, and it's exactly like I said - the data shows Yang is attracting more support than any other candidate from people who haven't traditionally been interested in what the Democrats (or Republicans) have been offering. Yang has consistently held the highest favorability ratings with Independents, and is the ONLY candidate with net positive favorability among all voters.

over 100M people didn't vote in 2016. a lot of people don't vote because they are sick of typical politicians and so they don't bother participating. but if along comes a candidate who doesn't act like a politician, speaks truthfully, seems capable, has good ideas, doesn't talk down to people and gives you the sense that they will put OUR interests first (and not their own career or their political buddies), then yeah a lot of those non-voters may become interested. and if Yang isn't the nominee, many of them would just go back to not voting for a Democrat or anybody at all in the first place. maybe most politicians and pundits don't see the importance of re-activating the politically disengaged or converting conservative or Trump voters, but all those votes are what it's gonna take to soundly beat Trump. If it's a close race with any of the other candidates who don't have Yang's advantages, then it's not gonna be a pretty picture come November



[Edited on February 3, 2020 at 2:36 PM. Reason : .]

2/3/2020 2:34:30 PM

Sanders polls better in that demo than Yang

2/3/2020 4:29:49 PM

I agree that of all the Dem candidates, Yang and Bernie are generally far and away the strongest on activating new voters. Can you cite your source though

2/3/2020 5:05:17 PM

hey

don't bother posting about it this morning

thanks

2/4/2020 8:09:54 AM

that's an odd thing to post, but whatever, it's cool

the only thing really to say at this point is



[Edited on February 4, 2020 at 9:16 AM. Reason : on to New Hampshire!]

2/4/2020 9:09:15 AM

Trump understands technology. He has an uncle of MIT professor.

2/4/2020 9:12:39 AM

Trump has his son Barron and Brad Parscale

2/4/2020 9:16:19 AM

The only way "understanding technology" would have helped is if they understood tech enough to avoid it for this process, right?

Maybe that's what he means?

2/4/2020 9:18:28 AM

I mean, our tech worked just fine last night...

it's nearly impossible to avoid technology in any election process these days. the key factors are reducing attack surface (which is technical and social), having an audit trail, and public transparency.

2/4/2020 9:30:14 AM

I admit to being a software ignorant mechanical eng, but I thought the consensus was using voting software (or voting reporting software, in this case) was an obvious bad idea. Especially without verifying that everyone had been fully trained and cleared.
I get most of my software knowledge from xkcd though so maybe i should be ignored/educated like the president and government


And this guy
https://twitter.com/ysaw/status/1224561186605125632?s=19

2/4/2020 10:04:22 AM

like I said, it's nearly impossible to avoid technology. you simply cannot design a 100% risk-free system. but we absolutely CAN do much better than we have been the last few years. Senator Ron Wyden has been a huge advocate for proper election security practices and his PAVE Act is the best option being discussed at a national level. I've posted on this topic as far as NC elections go as well.

It's about understanding the technology well enough to know where the threats are, how to mitigate the risks and balancing those with cost and voter expectations. and that's why the audit trail (hand-marked paper ballots) and public transparency are key.

in this case, Iowa does have the audit trail. like you said, the tech failed on the tabulation/reporting side.

and, it could have been worse. just a few months ago Iowa was planning on allowing voters to participate via virtual caucus. fortunately, the DNC's cybersecurity team pulled the plug.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-24/dnc-virtual-caucus-at-risk-after-experts-hacked-conference-call

2/4/2020 10:36:37 AM

Thanks for the answer! Prob the wrong thread for the discussion anyway, the Yang tweet sparked my thoughts though.

2/4/2020 10:49:12 AM

Andrew is No. 6!

2/4/2020 5:07:52 PM

Quote :

"Trump has his son Barron and Brad Parscale"

They do understand!

Quote :

"President Donald Trump’s campaign quickly seized on the issue to sow doubt about the validity of the results. “Quality control = rigged?” Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale tweeted Monday evening, adding a emoji with furrowed brows."

2/5/2020 9:44:07 AM

so, what happened in Iowa? based on the previous qntmfred posts in this thread, i thought maybe this is now when Yang is supposed to pop up. but, cnn is showing he is ranking at 1.0% in Iowa.

2/5/2020 6:53:06 PM

with the partially-reported results so far, looks like Yang got around 5-6% of the vote on the first alignment, which roughly matches the last few polls out of Iowa. due to the 15% viability rule for Iowa caucus, 80% of our supporters were not counted toward the final alignment. a lot of support came Yang's way in the final days, just not enough to be competitive with the leading candidates. Bill Clinton finished fourth, with 2% in the 1992 Iowa caucus, so we're not out yet!

Debate night on Friday and New Hampshire primary next Tuesday!





Really like this video the campaign put out today




[Edited on February 5, 2020 at 7:15 PM. Reason : yeah, it doesn't help the way the media is framing this, for yang and bernie vs buttigieg and biden]

2/5/2020 7:10:54 PM

No cause for alarm, since Iowa doesn't really matter.

2/6/2020 12:14:11 PM