I think reality is starting to settle the market froth. The market doesn't love uncertainty, and that's the name of the game in Trump 2.0.

11/15/2024 1:10:36 PM

Anyone bought USAF (Trump-hedge ETF)?

12/3/2024 10:05:04 PM

^^I was wrong. Irrational exuberance continues. Why it's a good idea to stay invested regardless of political outcomes.

12/4/2024 7:02:13 PM

yeah I haven't sold anything, but I have a lot of cash that needs to be deployed, and I can't find enough places I really feel good enough putting it into.

12/4/2024 7:17:37 PM

Why not a chain BBQ restaurant? We don't seem to have enough of them around. Coffee shop trend has slowed and even seen a few closed. Mullet restaurant? 172 for a flight school? Open a hobby business, like kids clothing store, for your gf on Palafox?

Stock gambles are/were SAVA short which paid off nice, CAVA (not paying off), Joby and Archer Aviation. I think both are horrible businesses but a lot of hype around eVTOL. No one is going to buy a $5 million aircraft that requires a pilot and can't fly IFR or do anything a regular heli can do, like carry a harem of hookers to your kids basketball game. Wait.

12/5/2024 12:49:47 AM

Oh I don’t want any small business. I want passive income or capital appreciation, not more work to do.


I would consider ownership of another airplane though, if I could find something that would be a good cross country machine that I could also rent out. I’m not sure there’s much overlap there, though.

12/5/2024 9:43:34 AM

^ yeah especially in markets like this. I think in a larger metro you could get away with having something like a Cirrus or Bonanza and also renting it out.

12/5/2024 10:52:19 AM

Right, exactly

I would consider something like an Arrow or earlier model Mooney, but i think it would be tough to make significant rental income with it compared to the cost of operating it in that way…

And even if I could break even or better with a 172 or Warrior or something, I have very little personal use for it, so it would largely just be a business, and probably a mediocre one at best.

12/5/2024 2:01:52 PM

Fed going to cut rates again or hold? Hear case could be made for both. What should they do?

12/16/2024 12:54:15 AM

They probably shouldn't because inflation is jumping back up a little and still isn't at target, but they probably will because the market is already pricing in a cut and will freak out if they don't, and I guess sometimes it's just easier not to have the fights. But then they might pause for a while, which probably is a good idea. We'll see what's on tap!

12/16/2024 11:41:17 AM

https://www.ft.com/content/9a0da0d6-92b4-4034-ac25-7b4abcbb0bbe?fbclid=IwY2xjawHNltxleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHUbW7z3mlPxfJnmbAhfv5SJIzk-c13LnggAxOhki36S6SLD545sNFBQgAA_aem_fSHxmeN1F6VhGIQv5SK06w


OK, don't disagree given current market valuations, but where do you put the money?

[Edited on December 16, 2024 at 6:32 PM. Reason : ]

12/16/2024 6:31:57 PM

I'm not buying into anything because of mania. I'm buying the whole market as excess funds are available, same as I have always done, and I will hope and plan to ride out the eventual bubble burst and continue to buy along the way down and the way back up. No big secret here. You could have gotten scared and stopped investing based on the same types of opinion pieces several years ago, and that would have proven quite financially costly. This guy's just another pundit. Eventually, someone will be right, but it will mainly be luck.

12/16/2024 7:20:00 PM

I guess the stock market didn't like the telegraphing of the slower pace of future interest rate reductions, even though it's prudent. Not the first time they've had a duck fit when the Fed does the right thing. Addicted to cheap debt. But soon we can have the President making policy demands of the Fed via social media posts. What could go wrong?!

12/18/2024 5:51:41 PM

I saw a graph yesterday about percentages of wall street ppl expecting market to go higher next 12 months. It was as high as its been in like 3 years. What are these people smoking? I can't always keep going up

12/18/2024 7:57:49 PM

A lot can happen in a year. Up or down is binary. Lots of so-called experts also predicted declines in years that turned out to be big upswings, so it cuts both ways.

12/18/2024 9:00:27 PM

^^^ what surprised me was that I thought it was universally already accepted that the pace of cutting was gonna slow down.

12/19/2024 10:16:55 AM

I bought some REITs today (O and NNN)

[Edited on January 2, 2025 at 8:29 PM. Reason : ]

1/2/2025 8:28:43 PM

I bought VTSAX in my IRA yesterday.

1/3/2025 12:48:55 PM

VTSAX and chill?

1/7/2025 7:57:53 AM

For me, yes.

Expect it's more like VTSAX and neuroticism.

1/7/2025 11:24:16 AM

man...maybe you're right...and I get that you're just DCA-ing.

...but I mostly can't get down with buying stocks at these valuations. I also feel like the markets have priced in potential tax cuts and deregulation from Trump, but mostly not priced in tariffs, deportations, and just general chaos and ineptitude as the CEO and C-suite of America.

I figure I needed more real estate exposure anyway, and REITs seem to be much more reasonable and in line with reality in terms of valuation.

1/8/2025 12:55:07 AM

Oh, I don't claim to be right. I claim to not know. I've therefore picked an historically age-appropriate asset allocation and just continue to steadily buy through both good times and bad when funds become available according to my overall investment plan -- effectively the same as a 401(k) -- forced dollar cost averaging (DCA). Actually, lump sum investment tends to come out ahead of DCA most of the time, which I what I do with my IRA -- maxing out on the first business day of the year. I don't want to need to expend mental and emotional energy on each investment and worry whether I am doing the optimal thing, as I almost certainly am not. I'm trying to be satisfied with "good enough" and just riding the wave wherever it goes, trusting that time in the market will compensate for the occasional poor timing of buying near highs right before pullbacks. There are plenty of times in the recent past where you could have talked yourself into not buying at market highs and high valuations and missed out on some nice gains. Eventually, that will be correct, but when? Maybe now. Maybe next year? Maybe two years? We don't really know how large the bubble will inflate before it pops. I try to be ready to stomach a 50% drop in equities at any time. Doesn't mean I would enjoy it.

1/8/2025 7:01:05 AM

Buffett indicator and CAPE are basically maxed out.

I feel like a lot of Trump pro-business stuff is priced in, but his erratic incompetence, not so much.

I’m not gonna start selling equities, but I think I’m gonna start selling OOM call options on indices such as SPY (prob not individual stocks). If I get called, then fine. That means things got even sillier.

1/23/2025 8:18:36 PM

so what happens to the S&P 500 under an autocratic government? it just keeps going up indefinitely because reasons?

2/8/2025 10:38:33 PM

We'll find out.

2/9/2025 6:51:43 AM

Man, HODLing US Equity through 4 years of this shit is going to be psychologically brutal. Not sure I can do it, nor whether I should.

2/22/2025 6:10:13 PM

I'm selling some OOM call options. If stuff gets called at an even more absurd price, then OK.

I've been gradually transitioning into more income-oriented holdings over the last few months. Some of it won't be immune to the United States going full-retard, but it should be less volatile and weather the storms better.

I'm not dumping everything, but I've got a fair amount of cash, REITs, conservative income ETFs, etc. Still some more volatile Mag-7 stuff and small-caps too, but I'm starting to take some profits and position a little more defensively.

[Edited on February 22, 2025 at 10:56 PM. Reason : ]

2/22/2025 10:55:56 PM

^^
do it!

2/23/2025 12:49:26 AM

Well, OK.

2/23/2025 8:49:16 AM

Man I wish I had sold a shitload more.

I'm 20% cash, though. Prob 7-9% REITs or something like that, too...plus about 7-8% bonds. All of their small gains are dwarfed by the losses in equities, but I feel like I was as well-positioned as was reasonably prudent for the last few weeks.

3/10/2025 11:34:41 PM

I wonder if the worst is over, at least for now?

Predicting how Trump will next manage to fuck something up is probably a fool's errand...but I haven't heard any more bluster about tariffs in a few days. I wonder if the White House basically cried uncle and decided not to make any more trillions in market value go up in smoke, and turned to pissing all over the rule of law to force some deportations instead to distract from it?

3/17/2025 11:27:41 PM

What do you think today?

3/18/2025 10:50:28 AM

To me it looks like a routine down day after a couple of big up days to me.

(I could totally be wrong. The economic data could continue to soften, or Trump could do something rash and stupid at any time…but I don’t think a half-percent decline today changes my current best guess)

3/18/2025 12:16:02 PM

Ok maybe not. Sounds like 2 April is “Liberation Day.”

I have a feeling it might liberate a shitload of my net worth from my accounts.

3/20/2025 6:19:29 PM

What a dumb time to be alive.

3/20/2025 6:49:09 PM