I'm in pine knoll shores right now on vacation. So this is getting cut short, I guess. Just waiting for the mandatory "go the fuck away" warning (we'll probably leave the night before the mandatory deadline).

10/4/2016 9:42:58 PM

How long are you there? I stayed there for a category one...what part of Pine Knoll as well? Morehead city or EI area.

They normally are pretty good about leaving the MC bridge open longer than the EI one.

10/4/2016 10:50:20 PM

Looks like landfall between a strong Cat 2 and weak Cat 3.

I have a feeling Wilmington to Lookout is the "landfall" area.

Eastern NC gonna have LOTS of trees down, power out etc...been a long time and lots of new growth on those trees.

10/4/2016 10:51:58 PM

there are a lot of ragged ass trees adn shit

we have not had a big ice storm or hurricane in over a decade they all gonna fall

10/4/2016 11:14:52 PM

What was the last 2+ system to come through NC?

10/4/2016 11:27:04 PM

that hurricane drought thing is so misleading

10/5/2016 12:23:19 AM

These models are all over the fucking place. I'm glad it's not my job to put out forecasts for this thing.

10/5/2016 1:26:04 AM

Quote :

"How long are you there? I stayed there for a category one...what part of Pine Knoll as well? Morehead city or EI area. They normally are pretty good about leaving the MC bridge open longer than the EI one."

Supposed to be here through Sunday, but it's not happening. We're just east of the NC aquarium.

We're sure they will give us ample time to leave, I just want to make sure we leave before traffic becomes dumb.

10/5/2016 5:30:38 AM

Quote :

"that hurricane drought thing is so misleading"

What's so misleading about it? It's quite easily backed up with facts.



Looks like the models are predicting a bigger and earlier turn to the east? This is different than yesterday; could it possibly not make landfall at all?

10/5/2016 8:05:26 AM

Models changed a lot last night starting to look like we may get little or nothing at all in this area which is good. If you live in the Bahamas its starting to look like a nightmare where this thing runs all the way through then loops around and hits again from the NE. This one has been a nightmare to forecast I am sure with predictions so close to the coast.

10/5/2016 8:50:13 AM

NC will still see some coastal impacts. Some places will still likely see gusts up to near tropical storm force, but the growing concern based on the model guidance trend will be the high seas/swells along with erosion.

[Edited on October 5, 2016 at 9:08 AM. Reason : ]

10/5/2016 9:06:19 AM

Quote :

"What's so misleading about it? It's quite easily backed up with facts."

A storm has to have 111mph winds to be classified as a Category 3, or major hurricane. There have been numerous storms over the last 10 years that had wind over 100 mph. If something like Hurricane Ike, hits land at 110mph, which it did, that technically doesn't count towards ending the drought. It's just bullshit based on arbitrary wind speeds and has nothing to do with storm surge, etc.

10/5/2016 11:49:50 AM

So you're upset with the classification of storms then? Storm surge is a slippery slope. If the storm hits at low tide, it has less impact that if it hit at high tide. Doesn't mean the storm was less intense, just a result of timing. If you have a better system to propose I'm sure they scientists are all for it.

[Edited on October 5, 2016 at 1:46 PM. Reason : ]

10/5/2016 1:42:57 PM

LOL

12z ECMWF coming back west, wonder if the others will fall in line

10/5/2016 2:16:12 PM

I think the argument is people are saying the US hasn't been hit by a major since 2005 and while that may be technically true it's not like there haven't been storms that have done a lot of damage and caused a lot of problems even if they weren't majors technically.

10/5/2016 2:52:31 PM

The existing hurricane scale is still the best way to judge it all out.

If Sandy had hit NYC at low tide nobody would even remember that storm's name. That's just how it is.

10/5/2016 3:02:30 PM

There is talk of redefining the scales. 7 categories I think.

10/5/2016 5:11:13 PM

18 UTC GFS is giving Florida the double boning.

10/5/2016 6:33:37 PM

It looks like the storm is barely gonna scrap NC, let alone Raleigh.

So why is my weather app (WeatherUnderground) telling me that between Friday and Saturday I should expect 3.3 inches of rain?

10/6/2016 11:04:36 AM

Because the storm is several hundred miles wide.

This is the rainfall potential map:

10/6/2016 11:20:32 AM

lol, yeah I know it's a big storm. Didn't think the rain bands would go out that far. At the least I didn't think the weather forecast had that level of confidence yet.

10/6/2016 11:35:54 AM

Should i plan on cancelling a trip to Charleston next weekend?

10/6/2016 4:25:48 PM

I'm glad the hurricane is going out farther south. It's going to rain and be windy as shit here but we don't get a refund for leaving early unless there's a mandatory evacuation. Got enough beer to get us to Sunday, all is well.

10/6/2016 7:39:04 PM

NCSU Meteorology Grads Periscope feed from this morning at Canaveral:

https://www.periscope.tv/w/1ynJOdMjybzxR

10/7/2016 7:28:09 AM

I hope the residents who stayed realize they still didnt make the correct choice they just got lucky by about 10 miles or so. Hopefully it doesnt wobble west any and the eyewall stays offshore for the majority of the coast. Did look like it clipped cape canaveral area this morning barely.

10/7/2016 8:07:17 AM

He's moving.

10/7/2016 11:20:40 AM

I think the land it hit/glanced off of is turning it

Charleston will be under water but, that's nothing new to them. If its a downtown booking, yeah you're likely out.

10/7/2016 12:00:12 PM

That video was boring in terms of the commentary, but gusts up to 150+ is

10/7/2016 12:10:09 PM

Hobby Met friend said that models are showing the eye passing as high north as Bald Head Island now.

10/7/2016 12:11:05 PM

it did look like the eyewall glanced off that land...but it's bearing down on daytona beach.

whats the term for when two hurricanes merge?





Wilmington is screwed.

[Edited on October 7, 2016 at 12:30 PM. Reason : flooding.]

10/7/2016 12:23:47 PM

SUPER STORM!

10/7/2016 1:53:27 PM

Tracks are calling for a more northward pass (what KeB said). Raleigh to get 5+ inches now, vs <5 before.

10/7/2016 2:57:00 PM

i'm so glad cnn is on the roads to show me how impassible they are

10/7/2016 3:18:58 PM

Raleigh's official rainfall amount was just north of 8 inches. Most rain I've ever experienced in one day that's for sure

10/10/2016 8:41:39 AM

Areas around Goldsboro and Fayetteville got double that!

10/10/2016 8:51:04 AM

Got 7 inches on the dot in North Raleigh

10/10/2016 9:03:09 AM

Hurricane Matthew is shaping up to be as big of a flood issue down in parts of Goldsboro, more so than Floyd.

Matthew dumped a LOT of water on NC.

10/10/2016 1:22:02 PM

Nicole may hit Bermuda now possibly as a Cat 2 and models are hinting at another Caribbean storm next week last I saw.

10/10/2016 3:08:55 PM

http://i.imgur.com/GGelQ3g.png


[Edited on October 10, 2016 at 3:50 PM. Reason : image too big]

10/10/2016 3:45:16 PM

The difference in the 48 hour projection vs the actual track is the difference. That's where people got too comfy.

10/10/2016 4:41:30 PM

My one-line post-mortem on the Hurricane Matthew forecast is that while the National Hurricane Center did pretty well, they over-relied on the GFS and ECMWF and pretty much ignored all the other models, many of which made better predictions when the storm was close to the US Mainland.

10/10/2016 6:56:32 PM

Looks like the streak of no major hurricane hits may be in jeopardy as Harvey is undergoing RI in the gulf at the moment. Still a ways to go but looks way more possible than yesterday. Expecting some pretty epic rainfall as well in parts of Texas and LA.

8/24/2017 8:19:33 AM

NHC expects major at landfall now. Also seeing models jumping on board with 92L developing off the Atlantic coast and possibly affecting us next week sometime.

8/24/2017 11:00:05 AM

Is that storm gonna swing over to NC? We really could use some fucking rainfall up in here.

8/24/2017 12:01:58 PM

Still unsure what Harvey does after it kinda stalls out over Texas some loop it back into gulf then landfall again in LA. Some just have it meander west eventually. 92L probably stays off the coast if it develops but some have it hitting like outer bank/ Chesapeake area and heading up into new england.

8/24/2017 12:18:13 PM

Southeast Texas is going to be under water. The rain forecasts are ridiculous; 500+ year rainfall amounts.

8/25/2017 11:10:52 AM

SC had one of those a couple years ago. They're not good.

8/25/2017 6:26:59 PM

As far as I know, I have a house in Corpus christi about 1/2 mile from the water.... I also have flood and windstorm insurance... So, that's a thing...

8/25/2017 6:40:57 PM

It's up to 130 now.

8/25/2017 7:43:40 PM

It's slowing down and actually intensifying.

The rain totals are catastrophic

8/25/2017 7:52:07 PM