^^NOBODY has mentioned CNN but you


^I thought it was 5 at 2am but 4 at the latest just now. In other words it's hovering right around 4/5

9/9/2017 5:21:54 AM

It dropped to a 4 yesterday, then back to a 5. At 8am today, it was 140mph winds (Cat4)

[Edited on September 9, 2017 at 9:38 AM. Reason : .]

9/9/2017 9:38:38 AM

RIP TAMPA.

9/9/2017 9:45:11 AM

Hmm I use weather underground and they said 130 (almost cat 3) at 8am. Either way, very sorry for Cuba but hope it slows down even more before it hits water again

9/9/2017 10:40:38 AM

yeah my bad, 130mph at 8am. Must have gotten the 4 from the cat4 mixed in my head.

will have another update in 10 minutes

[Edited on September 9, 2017 at 10:51 AM. Reason : .]

9/9/2017 10:50:46 AM

125

9/9/2017 11:02:09 AM

9/9/2017 11:03:46 AM

9/9/2017 12:11:25 PM

That must be the crazy girlfriend model.

9/9/2017 12:22:50 PM

Usually I don't do this because I know people at the NHC and they have tremendous pressure to highball the forecast, but because of the flaming I got, I just want to point out that I said it would weaken when evreryone else, including the NWS discussions, were expecting it to wobble and maybe even continue to strengthen.

Quote :

"Also, its not going to gain strength with much of it over Cuba. I wouldn't be suprised if its down to cat 3 by landfall."

That was 24 hours early and 12 hours before everyone else.

With that said, now that the path is even further west, its going to have more time to strengthen as it moves parralel to the peninsula. One little wobble and it could make it all the way to the panhandle before making landfall. We have gone from thinking about the this being the worst case scenario for Miami to the possibility of it being the worst case scenario for Tampa. It looks like it will make landfall a little further South but if it rolls into tampa bay or slightly north of the bay, WATCH OUT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/?utm_term=.5863ee4108b9

Quote :

"ut analysts say the metropolitan area is the most vulnerable in the United States to flooding and damage if a major hurricane ever scores a direct hit."

Quote :

"A Boston firm that analyzes potential catastrophic damage reported that the region would lose $175 billion in a storm the size of Hurricane Katrina. A World Bank study called Tampa Bay one of the 10 most at-risk areas on the globe."

Quote :

"By a stroke of gambler’s luck, Tampa Bay hasn’t suffered a direct hit from a hurricane as powerful as a category 3 or higher in nearly a century. Tampa has doubled down on a bet that another won’t strike anytime soon, investing billions of dollars in high-rise condominiums along the waterfront and shipping port upgrades and expanding a hospital on an island in the middle of the bay to make it one of the largest in the state."

[Edited on September 9, 2017 at 12:56 PM. Reason : 12]

9/9/2017 12:49:26 PM

What's the link to the script to block this fool? ^

-








-








-









-








[Edited on September 9, 2017 at 12:55 PM. Reason : g]

9/9/2017 12:53:30 PM

there are people walking their dogs at the key West southpoint webcam. there's enough traffic there to make me think a lot of people stayed at the keys for this.

Lee county is doing mandatory evacuations for additional areas now. I hope the initial focus on the storm hitting the Atlantic side of Florida didn't lull the West coast regions into being underprepared.

9/9/2017 1:08:22 PM

my parents and brother live in lee county in (now) mandatory evacuation zones -- they were very good about advance preparation (water, fuel, securing house/boat, etc) but were planning to stay in place until the shift yesterday to the west

my parents' house is on the end of a canal so they've left due to potential storm surge, everyone's now at my brother's second floor condo where they'll likely be safe but he's still in a flood zone so they're worried about vehicles -- they're keeping an eye on things and will likely head further inland to friends east of 75 if this track stays (my parents have a 100lb alaskan malamute so this limits their options a bit)

it is of course going to strengthen over the florida straits (any keys destruction is gonna be tough to see as my family has vacationed there every summer since i was a kid; they've been relatively spared for many many years), would love to see it continue to veer west to the gulf...

[/end stressed out rambling from 5000mi away...]

9/9/2017 1:36:03 PM

were they living there during Wilma? I remember the Lee County electric co-op being wrecked by that storm, and this will likely be worse.

9/9/2017 3:14:52 PM

no, my parents are native floridians (miami) but only just moved back last year after 30+ yrs in NC (so not first hurricane ever but it's been a long time and certainly first at this house; my bro moved to ft myers in 2014)

my family is headed inland now (east of 75) so hopefully physically safe, but the aftermath is probably gonna be terrible...

[/still stressed in europe]

9/9/2017 3:48:01 PM

Earl spotted on facebook:

9/10/2017 10:58:16 AM

Quote :

"no, my parents are native floridians (miami) but only just moved back last year after 30+ yrs in NC (so not first hurricane ever but it's been a long time and certainly first at this house; my bro moved to ft myers in 2014) my family is headed inland now (east of 75) so hopefully physically safe, but the aftermath is probably gonna be terrible... [/still stressed in europe]"

Getting some serious bands pushing through now, powers flickering a little but looking like a direct hit...

#brotherstatus

9/10/2017 11:05:47 AM

Keep getting tornado warnings on space coast. Minor power flickers

9/10/2017 11:10:47 AM

I watch CNN and talk about it because they are the leaders of the MSM. It gives me insight into what misconceptions my students and the general public might have or pickup from watching. A lot of the people telling the lies are in fact meteorologists. For example, the network doesn't seem to understand the difference between sustained winds and wind gusts. I think they really know but its better hype for the people on the ground all up the east coast to say they are experiencing hurricane force winds just because they got one 75 mph wind gust.

[Edited on September 10, 2017 at 1:33 PM. Reason : keep em honest]

9/10/2017 1:20:34 PM

Your meteorology students?

9/10/2017 3:06:31 PM

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172416297.html

spared

9/10/2017 3:46:40 PM

Obviously, there is going to be some damage when you have ~60mph sustained winds and to someone who doesn't understand the implications of what Miami was facing with the old forecast, it may seem very bad. In reality, this is minimal damage for a hurricane when you're talking about trees and temporary structures that are not designed to withstand winds. Anyone who has lived in the area knows that is not such an uncommon occurrence.

Its impossible to understand that Miami was spared if you don't know what they were spared FROM so I understand your perspective. I can't show you what it looks like for a cat 4 to hit Miami directly because it hasn't happened in modern times. No one knows exactly how bad that scenario could be which is scary but many estimates would put damage well over 100 billion in the Miami area alone. All I can do is show you these descriptions that explain the saffir-simpson scale to try and help give you a better understanding of what Miami was spared from in terms of winds alone. Keep in mind that what Miami experienced probably peaked around 60mph instead of the 140+ in the old forecast.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

In addition to that, we are talking about 2-5 feet of storm surge. When CNN puts that up and shows parts of Brickell avenue that flood in every hard rain, it may seem like a historic event to people who aren't familiar with area. I used to take a bus route that went through that area on the way home, and after a good afternoon thunderstorm, the bus driver was so used to it that he would tell everyone to put their feet up so he could drive through the block or 2 that always flooded while several inches of water got into the bus.

With all that said 2-5 feet of surge is a blessing compared to 10-15.

Theres a reason cat 3 storms and higher are considered "major" hurricanes. Its because the force of the wind isn't linear and at a certain threshold, the force of the wind starts to beat building codes and casue widespread catastrophic structural damage as well as overwhelming storm surge.

[Edited on September 10, 2017 at 4:30 PM. Reason : k]

9/10/2017 4:29:55 PM

^idiot



-



-





-




-




-





moving along, Naples getting hit pretty hard right now, gotta start watching Jose too for the East coast.

9/10/2017 4:35:30 PM

Quote :

"I watch CNN "

Hahahahah


You: "you morons get all your news from CNN"

Us: "not one of us watch CNN"

You: "well I do but I watch ironically not bc I'm dumber than bricks"

9/10/2017 5:13:38 PM

Just left Brickell the week before. Man, did I not expect to see it under water like that.

9/11/2017 2:23:15 AM

No damage here and one of the few in the county with power

9/11/2017 12:46:40 PM

In-laws in Mount Pleasant lost power. We're getting flickers, but still on. Little bit windier than I thought it was going to be, but still not too bad. Facebook is showing a few trees down in the neighborhood and the Battery is starting to go under water.

Wish we had restocked from the grocery store earlier last week. Didn't know if we were going to stay or go, so didn't want to buy a bunch of food and have it go bad. Looks like it's going to be grilled cheese and tomato soup tonight!

9/11/2017 1:29:45 PM

your roads are fine.

9/11/2017 1:45:02 PM

*if you have a boat

Looks bad up and down the east coast for surge flooding with those feeder bands worse than Matthew in a lot of places

9/11/2017 3:20:15 PM

Quote :

"your roads are fine. "

my street is fine...but half of downtown is flooded right now.

9/11/2017 3:42:16 PM

Floridians acted like this storm wasn't going to be that bad.

I bet a lot wish they had taken it more seriously now.

9/11/2017 4:47:42 PM

^what? No we didn't

9/11/2017 4:51:09 PM

ok let me redo that...

some Floridians.

Actually most of the ones I know posted on FB they were staying put. Now I'm questioning why I am friends with them.

9/11/2017 4:53:43 PM

It sounds like the storm was not as bad as they were saying. (except Keys.. Keys are violated)

9/11/2017 5:51:33 PM

Quote :

"Actually most of the ones I know posted on FB they were staying put. Now I'm questioning why I am friends with them."

Unless they are in a designated flood zone or in the projected path of the cat3 eyewall (ie-places that got mandatory evacuations) it was totally appropriate to decide to stay.

I worry about future stupidity when people apply hindsight to their evacuation. This was no one's fault but the forecast made it difficult to make the right call. The angle of approach made each wobble shift the impact areas by great distances. The evacuation orders had to go in for Southeast Florida, Southwest florida, and later, the Tampa area no later than when they did to be safe. The last second wobble back to the east spared Tampa and led to more flooding further up the east coast. A lot of people are going to ignore the next storm because of this. Some people went from Miami to Tampa to Jacksonville. People who stayed put are going to think " I stayed put for Irma and was fine so I can make it through any storm".

Evacuation fatigue is a real thing. Many elderly people who survived Betsy, and saw their homes survive multiple evacuations thereafter, ignored evacuation orders prior to Katrina and had a lot of influence over younger generations. This was a contributing factor to the unacceptable amount of death we saw there.

Its no ones fault except that fact that we don't have sufficient evacuation systems setup in this country. We aren't ready and Florida has a government that refuses to acknowledge the problem. For the most part, people are on their own to get out and shelters can be vulnerable places as we saw after Katrina and even Harvey.

Leading up to landfall, this was the most covered storm of all time largely due to the fact that it came right after Harvey and was so powerful before hitting Cuba. Everyone watched it wreck the Carribean and expected the same. Luckily, it hit Marco instead of Naples, Fort Myers or Tampa and those cities got mostly offshore flow.

Still waiting for a direct hit by a major hurricane on a major city like Miami, Tampa, or New York. Its only a matter of time and no one knows how bad it could be but it will be unlike anything we've seen. I will say though, New York is putting in major work to try to be as ready as possible.

9/11/2017 7:57:07 PM

Quote :

"Actually most of the ones I know posted on FB they were staying put."

In most of Florida it was perfectly safe to stay put...

9/11/2017 9:44:09 PM

I stayed and was perfectly fine. People in Tampa didn't really have much notice and roads would have been jam-packed

Besides how many fatalities were there? How many injuries?

Quote :

"Still waiting for a direct hit by a major hurricane on a major city like Miami"

Uhhhh, Andrew?

Aldo Houston isn't a major city?

[Edited on September 11, 2017 at 10:13 PM. Reason : Eee]

9/11/2017 10:05:40 PM

Today I learned that Harvey, Andrew, and even fucking Katrina didn't hit a major city

9/11/2017 10:39:36 PM

Y'all got Earled.

9/12/2017 12:43:25 AM

Im glad you learned something today. I would suggest you look at the tracks of each of those storms and then come back. Its lazy to talk shit without doing so. Harvey made landfall over 150 miles away from Houston. Not even close to being a direct hit. More of a prolonged flooding event than storm surge and wind anyway.

Andrew was small and hit homestead way back in 92.

Katrina was the costliest natural disaster in us history but i guess you didnt know that no was a relatively small city even before the storm (46th largest metro)(or maybe you just dont know how big the areas i listed are) 1st 8th and 18th. Theyve all obviously all been hit historically, but thats not what this is about.

Nothing makes sense without background information.

[Edited on September 12, 2017 at 2:14 AM. Reason : i dont see the point in argue semantics even if you knew what you were talking about(you dont)]

[Edited on September 12, 2017 at 2:20 AM. Reason : heh]

9/12/2017 2:08:30 AM

Did any of your students argue this with you?

Surely one had that counterpoint, tell us more about that discussion.

9/12/2017 2:38:14 AM

Shit. I got Earled

9/12/2017 8:36:46 AM

I officially put my Fence back together today... Worst thing Irma did to me was make me lose power for 12 hours and do some minor damage to my new vinyl fence.

Also, my Corpus Christi house survived Harvey, and now has renters (from Rockport).

Successful hurricane season!

[Edited on September 12, 2017 at 9:25 AM. Reason : .]

9/12/2017 9:24:59 AM

^ hurricane season isn't over

9/12/2017 12:56:26 PM

No one talks like this in real life. An argument requires some sort of warrant instead of just vomiting out thoughts that disagree with simple facts. Not many in here are putting forth an argument. TT10 kinda did by insinuating Miami wasn't spared because a crane broke but thats the only attempt I've seen really.

(Examples of arguments would have been questioning the relative vulnerability of New Orleans to the cities I listed or the significance of a direct hit when catastrophic flooding can happen without it)

Maybe people do talk this way in real life and I just don't remember what its like to live in the South. Thats part of what makes TWW interesting. No place else on the internet would someone like synapse stick around just to stalk and post one liners all day.

In real life, someone who isn't sure about what they're talking about might ask a question to expand dialogue "What about harvey? Wasn't that a direct hit from a major hurricane on Houston?"

Then they could actually have the opportunity to learn about where Rockport is in relation to Houston. I mean, it makes sense that people hold these misconceptions especially when you consider all of the damage that was done in Houston and the amount of media coverage it got, but how hard is it to look up or ask about the track of the storm?

Andrew had a tight wind swath that devastated Homestead and nearby areas

Quote :

"The devastation could have been much worse The area in south Miami-Dade County that was decimated by Hurricane Andrew is mostly rural and suburban, Zamanillo said. Had the storm stayed on course and hit farther north, it would have ripped through major metropolitan areas, including downtown Miami, Zamanillo said."

Whats crazy to me is that people would act this way without even bothering with facts. Maybe I am just out of touch with middle America, but this is not the way I see people talk in real life. Its the kind of thing my students learn in middle school and I've never taught middle school.

[Edited on September 12, 2017 at 5:49 PM. Reason : damn]

9/12/2017 5:47:45 PM

tldr

9/12/2017 6:05:20 PM

is earl on the spectrum?

9/12/2017 10:44:45 PM

are everyone's roads fine?

9/12/2017 11:36:55 PM

I know 2 people from work who have their houses basically destroyed by Irma, one from flooding another from a tornado tearing the room off followed by hours of rain.

Fucking sucks.

That's on the central east coast, can't imagine Southern FL and Tampa/landfall areas

9/12/2017 11:58:13 PM

As long as they let us get through the worst parts north, I checked the imagery. Very surprising how good key west is. Just random boats got loose...but look north

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/irma/index.html#

9/14/2017 1:46:33 AM