Biden mixed up his sister and wife and couldn't follow a teleprompter last night. Clinton disappearing in the general was a bad move, but I wonder if its the right play for Biden.

3/4/2020 7:22:42 AM

its a good look

3/4/2020 7:32:21 AM

Quote :

"Lilly-white Iowa is intentionally bungled"

You're starting to sound like one of those right-wing conspiracy theorists.

3/4/2020 8:24:46 AM

only right-wing conspiracy theorists think the iowa caucus is dumb?

3/4/2020 8:25:57 AM

No, that it was intentionally bungled.

3/4/2020 8:33:41 AM

Iowa was bungled, but it hurt Pete way more. Pete won the SDE total which is always the total used by media to declare the winner. It wasn't intentional, it was just incompetence and still using a caucus.

Sanders never expanded his base of 20-30% support. You can't win with that when people drop out

3/4/2020 8:34:44 AM

Iowa caucus hurt Pete more than it impacted Bernie's campaign. Pete poured all his resources into Iowa and the takeaway out of that night wasn't a tie with Bernie, it was how trash the caucus is.

[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 8:35 AM. Reason : beat me to it bb]

3/4/2020 8:34:50 AM

exit polls aren't very reliable and shouldn't be used for specifics, but some interesting trends

it looks like a majority of voters in potentially* every state yesterday support replacing private insurance with a government plan (*some margins are probably too close considering it's an exit poll)

and socialism is more popular than capitalism or has more favorable than unfavorable among dem voters in multiple states (including NC)

25% of buttigieg voters in CA said they decided to vote for him that day

3/4/2020 9:16:15 AM

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/03/02/2020-total-campaign-contributions-me-orig.cnn

LMAO

3/4/2020 9:41:12 AM

Bloomberg has now suspended his campaign

[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 10:15 AM. Reason : Woulda been better off Freedom Dividending that $500M]

3/4/2020 10:12:59 AM

So a billionaire bought 15% of the electorate essentially and handed it to Biden.

3/4/2020 10:15:19 AM

If we ever have to write the "why did Sanders lose the primary?" Post-mortem, we should start with why didn't he in the aftermath of the 2016 primary not become a member of the party. My gut instinct is that so kills him in the African-American community who are huge party loyalists. It can be overcome, but he's starting out by choosing to put himself at a disadvantage of having to overcome what is not a problem for any other candidate. If he responds with "that requires himself to accept some things, compromise his positions", first, I don't really get that, he caucuses with the Democrats in the Senate, and second, that solidifies an argument against him some Democrats have. The institutional parties are so weak nowadays, that's how an entryist hijacked the Republican Party in 2016 and Sanders twice now has made strong runs for the Democratic nod as an entryist, but they still mean something.

This race really strikes me as similar to the 2018 New York Democratic primary for governor, where the role of the establishment/Biden is Cuomo, the role of Sanders is Nixon, and Bernie's supporters are the Working Families Party.

[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 10:23 AM. Reason : .]

3/4/2020 10:18:16 AM

I mean, Biden was likely to get much of that 15% if Bloomberg never entered the race

3/4/2020 10:18:24 AM

^^ Good analysis. But TBF, Sanders has never been known to have a high political IQ. He just knows how to pander for votes, which can only get a politician so far if you can't get any actual legislation passed.

The Bernie bro's seem to be blaming the democrat establishment for Bernie's decline. The fact of the matter is, after 2016 he knew he had a problem getting AA votes, especially in the south. He had 4 whole years to build a coalition down there, and he never did.


[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 10:36 AM. Reason : 1]

3/4/2020 10:33:42 AM

Quote :

" https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1235207816899465216?s=21"

This seems smart and something he should have done a long time ago. I know there is a good deal of leftist critique of Obama but he is, by far, the most popular Democrat in the country. Bernie actually has a more compelling argument he is more similar to Obama ideologically than Biden does.

3/4/2020 10:33:52 AM

^^^^ Sanders switched to D in 2015, he only switched back after the election. i don't think that would have changed anything

[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 10:34 AM. Reason : ,]

3/4/2020 10:34:07 AM

Bloomberg out

3/4/2020 10:37:03 AM

Quote :

"California ALWAYS takes days or weeks to call. They allow mail in ballots provided they are post marked the day of the election. This isn't new, it isn't some vast conspiracy."

I'm aware of this. I live here. I also lived here in 2016 when AP declared the winner the night before the CA primary. That wasn't the point I was making. I was talking about how the Democratic establishment played the media to perfection to help their guy, which is exactly what they did.

I mean, I'm sorry. But if anyone thinks the Iowa caucus being botched was a coincidence, or that centrist candidates dropping out to rally behind Biden (who only focused on South Carolina) is also a coincidence, then that person hasn't been closely following politics for very long.

3/4/2020 10:37:27 AM

what's the best delegate tracking site? i've been trying to find one this morning but the ones that seem up to date i can't tell if they are using projections or actual results

Lee Carter posted this:

Quote :

" @carterforva Unallocated delegates, by state Biden states: AL 5 AR 3 NC 60 TN 13 Close states: ME 6 MA 14 MN 1 TX 118 Bernie states: CA 307 CO 27 UT 17 Biden currently leads by 71, but that will narrow significantly. "

but i don't want to have to dig through each states results to check

[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 10:41 AM. Reason : .]

3/4/2020 10:40:43 AM

Quote :

"But if anyone thinks the Iowa caucus being botched was a coincidence, or that centrist candidates dropping out to rally behind Biden (who only focused on South Carolina) is also a coincidence, then that person hasn't been closely following politics for very long."

Yeah? So you think how some white voters in Iowa was going to effect the vote of some black voters in S.C.? Bernie had 4 years to build an AA base in the south. He didn't. This is on him.

3/4/2020 10:43:40 AM

Warren is likely going to drop out today or in the coming days.

Do we realistically think it matters? She is the other “progressive” but a lot of her support was college educated and non-working class, correct? Bernie would need a huge portion of her support to catch Biden you’d think given the map ahead and is really only likely to get 50-60% of her share.

I don’t think it’s useful to call her a snake or rage at her but her staying in really did likely hand Biden the keys.

3/4/2020 10:53:25 AM

^^he did build that, but it has the same age divide as white people

[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 10:54 AM. Reason : ^ probably not much impact now, needed to blunt biden on super tuesday]

3/4/2020 10:53:57 AM

^^^


[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 10:56 AM. Reason : ]

3/4/2020 10:56:33 AM

Quote :

"Warren is likely going to drop out today or in the coming days."

Maybe, but she seems super focused on going to the convention with delegates. If the party machine is pulling all these levers what benefit is it to them to pull the Warren one today?

3/4/2020 10:59:04 AM

Quote :

"Warren is likely going to drop out today or in the coming days.""

3/4/2020 11:01:54 AM

Man imagine thinking the DNC is competent enough to allow all of 2016 to happen while still somehow having the foresight to plan the Iowa Caucus shenanigans AND Pete/Amy dropouts AND the Beto endorsement AND keep Warren in the race to split the progressive vote.

Things I saw Bernie fans rant about over the last 12 hours that are responsible for super Tuesday results:
- The DNC
- The media, for over-reporting Biden's SC win
- Low information voters, for sticking with Biden
- Elizabeth Warren, for not dropping out

Things that really should be blamed:
- Bernie's policies (since last I checked, votes for the candidate = endorsement of policies)
- Bernie not being able to connect with African-American voters
- Relying on voter turnout (13% of eligable voters in the 18-29 age group voted last night)
- Not being able to expand voter turnout from 2016 (Iowa/NV turnout was lower than 2016)

3/4/2020 11:05:20 AM

The assumption that Warren supporters would all just flock to Bernie is so stupid. I guess nobody wants to talk about the fact that she got waxed in her home state, coming in third after a surging Biden, not Bernie.

I’d laugh pretty hard if she endorses Bernie if/when she drops out . She’d make a great cabinet member for Biden imo. Secretary of Education would be cool.

3/4/2020 11:08:12 AM

Quote :

" https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1235207816899465216"

This is in the replies:

https://twitter.com/brobofet/status/1235211088687325186

3/4/2020 11:10:42 AM

Does anyone here think Biden will win in Nov?

3/4/2020 11:12:23 AM

Yes.

I think Bernie would have won too. Trump is uniquely unpopular and losing brain cells faster than Biden even.

3/4/2020 11:14:00 AM

I like his chances better than Bernie, given his ability to energize black voters and old people.

3/4/2020 11:15:27 AM

lol alright, here we go again

3/4/2020 11:17:26 AM

Bernie would have had no problem turning out the black vote.

Bernie would have turned out more youth vote. Biden will turn out more suburban vote (the vote that ran 2018).

It’s all theoretical but I don’t see any reason given polling to believe Bernie or Biden couldn’t beat Trump, which is why I’ve said all along to vote your preference without regard to electability. There just isn’t much of a difference.

3/4/2020 11:17:29 AM

I think he will lose, but the result will be very very close like Gore VS Bush 20 years ago.

3/4/2020 11:18:56 AM

Again, most people are terrified of socialism. You can thank our dismal public education system and our American proclivity to cling to traditions and ignore the success of other highly developed nations who figured out progressive policies decades ago.

When push comes to shove, most Americans would rather go back to the Obama era and kick the can down the road than burn it to the ground.

I also think Bernie would lose in the EC worse than Clinton.

Those of you who kept insisting that moderate/centrist voters didn’t matter were clearly wrong. Time to own up to it.

3/4/2020 11:23:14 AM

The attitudes and reactions of the Bernie camp interests me. Following Nevada, they became increasingly vocal, and slightly braggadocious. Following Super Tuesday, they are vocal, angry, and assigning blame. In this way, they remind me of spoiled, entitled children rather than adults advocating for their candidate. Likewise, they critique and blame everyone else, avoiding acknowledgement of any of their own shortcomings.

The Warren blame is embarrassing for the Bernie camp. Warren voters are just as likely to vote Biden as they were to vote Bernie. There was a lot of overlap in the Pete and Warren camps (similar demographic and lot of 1st/2nd choice cross over- and Pete voters largely went Biden. You could suggest that it was the endorsement that did the swing, but those endorsements are really just to sway undecided voters who want to go along with some momentum. Anyone who had made up their mind already is going to vote for who they liked the second best, regardless of endorsement. Had Warren dropped and endorsed Bernie, her voters would have still split. Where Bernie may have made headway is with some of the undecideds, but given the large number of Biden endorsements, my gut says they would have leaned Biden.

Plus there is this:

Quote :

"The Bernie bro's seem to be blaming the democrat establishment for Bernie's decline. The fact of the matter is, after 2016 he knew he had a problem getting AA votes, especially in the south. "

Similar to 2016, the Bernie camp is spreading their blame beyond the candidates in the race and to the establishment. Last time that resulted in some bad blood and some lost votes. I can't say it swayed the election but it certainly didn't help. I'm uncertain why so many of the Bernie camp would support this narrative, when the recourse could be powerful.

Listen Bernie supporters, we hear you. You like you're guy and you want to keep supporting him. The rest of us think that is just fine and support your choice to do so. But if you want to assign blame to recent shortcomings, you need to look inward not outward. There are a host of reasons why people are not backing the movement that have nothing to do with an establishment, or fear of change, or being a DiNO, or to whatever else you wish to attribute it. There is a reason why people who are ideologically similar, i.e. Warren fans, don't all rank Bernie as a number two or choose to vote for him when doing so could get policies more in alignment with their philosophies enacted. Blaming others isn't a way to get your movement off the ground. Only addressing the very glaring shortcomings that the other 70% of the electorate sees will help.

[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 11:31 AM. Reason : .]

3/4/2020 11:23:16 AM

Bernie was gaining ground among black voters, actually was leading them nationally, until Clyburn endorsed, he lost SC, the media began drumming up electability concerns, and 3 other candidates coordinated a drop out/endorsement.

The Warren blame is perfectly reasonable. If she had dropped out and and endorsed, most of her supporters would have followed. Exactly what happened with Pete. Bernie would have gained enough ground in several states to win Super Tuesday.

This is all stupid, Biden will lose, we'll get 4 more years of Trump, AOC will run in 2024, life goes on.

[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 11:31 AM. Reason : .]

3/4/2020 11:28:29 AM

Quote :

"Man imagine thinking the DNC is competent enough to allow all of 2016 to happen while still somehow having the foresight to plan the Iowa Caucus shenanigans AND Pete/Amy dropouts AND the Beto endorsement AND keep Warren in the race to split the progressive vote."

The DNC cares more about preserving their party apparatus, which is currently aligned with the interests of capital and corporations. Bernie is more of a threat to those interests than Trump. Do they want to beat Trump? Sure. But not if it means losing control of their party and losing campaign contributions from wealthy donors. The DNC is absolutely capable of competently managing an election. They just use that competence to fend off an insurgent left that threatens their status. That same electoral competency is not effective against nationalism, and that's they key difference (and why Biden will lose to Trump).

3/4/2020 11:31:37 AM

^^What I'm telling you is the votes would not have swayed the way you think.

1. Endorsements influence undecided voters who lean toward those with momentum. Biden had more of these endorsements in short order, so the likelihood of Bernie pulling off a large number of these undecideds based on Warren's endorsement is low, especially given the demographics she influences and how small of a group that is (white, highly educated, upper income).

2. People vote for who they like the second best just as they vote for people who they like the first best when that candidate is in the race. There is no evidence to suggest endorsements effectively sway a voter from their second choice to a new candidate that would have been their third or 4th. Warren voters are split by Bernie, Pete, klobuchar, and Biden, with Pete and Klobuchar voters leaning Biden. Sure Bernie would have gained some votes but Biden would have as well, regardless if Warren endorsed Bernie.

Blaming Warren isn't where the Bernie team needs to focus. That focus needs to be on what drives people away from your group.

[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 11:42 AM. Reason : those ^^]

3/4/2020 11:36:39 AM

^
Show your work please. Pete voters went entirely to Biden, because he endorsed him, not because of momentum. Biden won one state that he was projected to win. Bernie was projected to win much more than he did.

[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 11:47 AM. Reason : .]

3/4/2020 11:46:00 AM

Read any of the articles from Vox or 538 on how Pete/Amy voters split. Pete and Amy voters did not go toward Biden because of the endorsements, they went because they already leaned toward him. In general, they leaned toward Pete/Amy, Warren, and Biden as second choices. Removing not only their primary person but also their secondary, means that not only those with Biden as a second choice but also those with a third went his way. This isn't difficult. Is there some data other than conjecture you have to disprove this logic?

Or go find any intended Pete/Amy voter and speak to them. Ask who their second choice was and if they voted that way or if they changed who they voted for based on an endorsement.
You'll even find some who went and voted for Warren, despite no endorsement from Pete and an improbable chance of winning. This is because people tend to stick to their guns and with no debate in between to change an individual's opinion, that's what people do.

Endorsements sway undecided, not decided.

3/4/2020 12:07:30 PM

Even if we go with your logic 100%, it tells us that Warren endorsing Bernie would have swayed undecideds his way as well, because he also had momentum. He was projected to win most of the states in Super Tuesday before the Pete/Amy endorsements happened.

Also Pete voters were an even split before the endorsement. They all went to Biden. Your argument is flawed.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/03/01/pete-buttigieg-second-choice-polling/

[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 12:21 PM. Reason : .]

3/4/2020 12:17:10 PM

Quote :

"Blaming Warren isn't where the Bernie team needs to focus. That focus needs to be on what drives people away from your group."

No. The lesson to be learned is this: The center consolidated. The "left" did not.

Questioning whether or not Warren voters split progressive vs moderate is a legitimate question if you're trying to build a legitimate left base that can enact change.

3/4/2020 12:24:19 PM

Cisneros results are disappointing but promising, hope that's the start of a trend and not an outlier

3/4/2020 12:38:18 PM

Quote :

"Does anyone here think Biden will win in Nov?"

I've thought that all of the candidates other than Michael Bloomberg could defeat Donald Trump in November. One of Hillary Clinton's biggest flaws was being the second most unfavorable presidential candidate in modern American history, only behind Donald Trump; Michael Bloomberg had pretty terrible favorability ratings, as well.

I feel that Joe Biden's performance last night showed promise for his prospects in the general election.

What was with Virginia's turnout? Were there other popular ballot measures that caused turnout to exceed 2008 levels? Were there other states that had similar turnout?

3/4/2020 12:39:11 PM

are we just assuming bidens gaffes arent going to depress anyone in the coming months? does he get a pass from democrats like trump does republicans? they are just a couple old folksy dumbasses?

somehow i dont think thats going to get democrats in particular very excited. maybe NyM410 specifically can explain this? i hope its a non factor.

3/4/2020 12:51:17 PM

I don't think that his gaffes will be as problematic as his propensity to make absolutely false claims about past accomplishments that he never actually achieved.

3/4/2020 12:54:54 PM

^ Trump will absolutely make a point of exploiting those false claims, hypocrisy be damned. He's not above it

3/4/2020 12:57:52 PM

^^his lies didn't hurt his performance on tuesday, maybe living in a post-truth world applies to both parties now

[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 12:58 PM. Reason : .]

3/4/2020 12:58:38 PM

trump will also make fun of his illness, disability, whatever it is. Literally the first time biden says something silly trump will ask if his alzheimers is acting up again.

[Edited on March 4, 2020 at 1:01 PM. Reason : trolled to death]

3/4/2020 1:00:22 PM