^ Can we get the English version? Kthx

1/27/2016 4:01:51 PM

srsly

1/27/2016 4:06:34 PM

man, don't post that WxRisk garbage

1/27/2016 4:19:24 PM

WXRISK was completely on target for the last storm.

1/27/2016 5:35:27 PM

couldn't have been much worse than RaleighWX

1/27/2016 6:27:40 PM

Quote :

"don't post that WxRisk garbage"

[Edited on January 27, 2016 at 7:42 PM. Reason : 10 day model comps...no]

1/27/2016 7:41:45 PM

so post greg fischel data? LOL.

1/28/2016 7:52:28 AM

Quote :

"WXRISK was completely on target for the last storm."

This guy was also fired from the NWS, if that tells you anything

1/28/2016 8:02:42 AM

pfffft, who needs these "models" and "National Weather Service based forecasts" when we have dtownral, AMIRITE?!?!?

1/28/2016 8:18:11 AM

I'm not here to defend the guy. I've used his data, with several others. Usually all my sources agree on an event. What differs is the inches vs ice vs snow and timing.

1/28/2016 8:21:26 AM

Wxrisk is now saying there's a potential for another similar storm super bowl weekend.

1/28/2016 8:35:58 AM

You say he was "on target". On what basis of measurement do you conclude that? What constitutes as on target to you?

To me, timing is the most important aspect---telling people approximately when the onset is should (theoretically) help people plan ahead and be safe. I couldn't care less about trying to pinpoint snow totals. It's more about understanding how the storm evolves, and approximately when those transitions to sleet/ice/rain happen. This past storm had more of a warm nose aloft that most in the area expected, even a special upper air measurement taken during the storm (saw it retweeted by one of the Triad TV mets) suggested the atmosphere supported snow even though the surface observations showed sleet.

It's great that you use multiple sources, as I would recommend that to anyone. I just believe that most people latch onto one source, and I'm afraid that some of those probably stick to ones that aren't very good (like WxRisk).

1/28/2016 8:39:20 AM

Quote :

"This guy was also fired from the NWS, if that tells you anything "

that doesn't tell me anything

why was he fired?

1/28/2016 8:46:56 AM

Quote :

"pfffft, who needs these "models" and "National Weather Service based forecasts" when we have dtownral, AMIRITE?!?!?"

i was literally just posting images from NWS website and information from the same message board as other people, i just filtered out the hype (which i was good at because i read sports talk).

1/28/2016 8:48:23 AM

on target to me is "event XYZ will happen between these dates ABC with ice/snow". Comparing that statement with multiple sources. To keep on topic this is where the Feb 7th9th dates are coming from - multiple sources.


Devil is in the details but I just need to know if something will happen in two day span so I can plan appropriately. I could less about evolution and trends and alofts. In general any participation fucks us up for a few days. 4" of snow or 0.25" ice, we're all fucked.

1/28/2016 8:53:30 AM

I seem to remember dtownral calling for 40 degree temps that Friday and mostly rain so clearly he knew what he was talking about.

1/28/2016 8:55:08 AM

Quote :

"i just filtered out the hype"

I'm a little more partial to your school open/close predictions

1/28/2016 8:56:18 AM

^^ friday was almost all rain with almost no sleet and snow and temps were over 40 degrees aloft that's why it wasn't snow

1/28/2016 9:06:12 AM

Quote :

"that doesn't tell me anything why was he fired?"

I should have said supposedly, since it's from word of mouth. Never sought out to confirm it for myself, but if you do a simple search you can find plenty of forum posts that claim it.

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/3010-increasing-probablity-for-big-chill-behide-next-week-system/

Quote :

" Dave Tolleris went 'private' in '98 for one reason and one reason only - he was *fired* from the NWS. Fired not only for malfeasance and dereliction of duty but for repeatedly 'leaking' information to the private sector. How is that bold and daring?"

He claims he was kicked out, lol

[Edited on January 28, 2016 at 9:10 AM. Reason : ]

1/28/2016 9:09:09 AM

none of those claims diminish his credibility though, only his ethics

[Edited on January 28, 2016 at 9:11 AM. Reason : .]

1/28/2016 9:11:17 AM

If you go by Novicane's definition of "on target", then everyone was credible for this past storm.

Quote :

"on target to me is "event XYZ will happen between these dates ABC with ice/snow"."

I'm not gonna sit here and research times where they guy's been wrong, but he has been often.

1/28/2016 9:33:16 AM

Quote :

"^^ friday was almost all rain with almost no sleet and snow and temps were over 40 degrees aloft that's why it wasn't snow"

I dont know where you are located but I didnt see any rain on Friday, freezing rain sure, but no just straight rain and more sleet than I may have ever seen with a storm. Also you said 40 degrees at RDU, not aloft, so dont try to pull that bullshit either.

[Edited on January 28, 2016 at 11:33 AM. Reason : .]

1/28/2016 11:33:12 AM

Didn't that Raleighwx guy call for 3-7 inches of snow/sleet and some freezing rain? I'd say that's on target. Probably got around 3 inches by the end on Sat. Closer than dtral's 40 degrees and rain.

1/28/2016 11:42:35 AM

raleigh did not see anywhere close to that amount

1/28/2016 11:44:58 AM

^^^ freezing rain is rain

1/28/2016 11:45:44 AM

No, its not, when you are talking about winter weather forecasts and you damn well know it.

1/28/2016 11:50:50 AM

^

1/28/2016 12:12:36 PM

This thread tho

1/28/2016 12:14:35 PM

Quote :

"Didn't that Raleighwx guy call for 3-7 inches of snow/sleet and some freezing rain? I'd say that's on target. Probably got around 3 inches by the end on Sat. Closer than dtral's 40 degrees and rain."

On target? Where?! Not even close to that amount of anything. Maybe 1 inch of total accumulation at my house 3 miles south of downtown.

1/28/2016 1:10:57 PM

Northwest Raleigh close to Durham definitely got more than 1" of accumulation.

1/28/2016 1:29:10 PM

I got between 1-2" near north hills

1/28/2016 2:14:04 PM

Quote :

"wed/thurs will be way too warm for winter weather "

Sleeting in Garner right now....BOOM

I mean it lasted only about 30 seconds, but I called it lol

[Edited on January 28, 2016 at 3:04 PM. Reason : .]

1/28/2016 3:03:15 PM

Ok. New predictions I'm seeing are saying winter weather Super Bowl Sunday Monday and Tuesday. What you seeing?

1/30/2016 12:28:35 AM

yep still seeing 8th-12th

1/30/2016 2:33:41 AM

more snow, really? and that soon?

1/30/2016 4:30:09 PM

if we see any snow it will be mixed in with rain and the ground will be too warm for accumulation

1/30/2016 6:12:55 PM

FUCK YOU

1/30/2016 6:26:32 PM

Mountains are supposed to get hopefully a foot over night! Pow pow day tomorrow!

1/30/2016 8:51:47 PM

wxrisk - take it for its worth.

Quote :

"ABOUT FEB 5 -11 TIME FRAME -- SEVERAL POSSIBLE EAST COAST WINTER STORM THREATS This is Saturday evening post is a brief discussion about the various possible East Coast winter storm threats which exists during the seven day interval from February 5 -11. There actually a couple different possibilities which have to be looked at. THREAT #1 - FEB 5 EASTERN NC / SE VA ONLY The strong cold front which will arrive on the East Coast February 4 will stall on the Southeast U.S. Coast late on FEB4 and FEB 5. There is no doubt that a wave of LOW pressure is likely to form on the front and this weak LOW could pass close enough to Cape Hatteras NC to bring precipitation into the eastern third of NC and southeast third of VA. Given how warm it is s going to be on Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday... it appears that this precipitation will likely be rain for eastern third of NC and southeast third of VA. BUT there is a small chance that IF...IF... if the cold air gets into eastern third of NC and southeast third of VA.. The precipitation type maybe snow instead of rain. The odds of THREAT #1 working out and bringing a period of snow to Eastern North Carolina and Southeast Virginia on Friday, February 5 is not high but it can't be ruled out completely. . THREAT #2 .. IS FEB 7. The regular or operational European model on Saturday is making this into a pretty big coastal storm that would bring heavy snow to Eastern North Carolina Eastern Virginia the Delmarva and into far Southern New Jersey and a moderate snow into interior areas of North Carolina Virginia Washington, DC Baltimore up into Philly NJ NYC and Southern New England. The euro ensembles shows some sort of Middle Atlantic east coast Low so this threat may be more serious than Threat #1 . THREAT #3 FEB 9-10.. This is the one I have been more focused about over the past few days. The " signal" from the various weather models appear to be more significant with this system. Not only does the European ensemble model support THREAT #3 as the more serious of the three possibilities but so does the Canadian and the GFS ensemble models. . I will probably do a video about this on Sunday late morning when the early Sunday morning weather models come in."

1/31/2016 11:18:04 AM

I don't see any ice or snow on my street, so I'm sure wake isn't getting delayed tomorrow, roads are fine. maybe durham county gets a delay because of the northern parts of the county

[Edited on January 31, 2016 at 11:23 PM. Reason : have they recharged the weather dome to full capacity yet?]

1/31/2016 11:23:03 PM

ITS GONNA SN...TORNADO?

2/2/2016 8:16:33 PM

Snownado

2/2/2016 8:28:04 PM

SPRING IS HERE!!!!!

2/3/2016 1:52:49 AM

The calendar maker is the real magician. Its always spring. Its always snowing. Its always fall.

2/3/2016 11:19:11 AM

this snow today is crazy

2/3/2016 12:13:18 PM

i'm sure wake will be delayed tomorrow

2/3/2016 2:21:03 PM

nah, no snow ITB

2/3/2016 2:24:09 PM

maybe durham county gets a delay because of the northern parts of the county

2/3/2016 2:27:33 PM

maybe

2/3/2016 2:36:06 PM

perhaps

2/3/2016 3:00:02 PM