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bdmazur
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Although there is the Israel/Palestine thread, I wanted to have a conversation focused directly on the March 17 election that will have effects beyond Palestine. Also, there have been some ridiculous ads that I wanted to share for your entertainment.

Michael Oren, Kulanu


Naftali Bennett, Jewish Home


Benjamin Netanyahu, Likud

3/3/2015 1:23:08 AM

bdmazur
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An update on current polling data, 15 days out. A coalition of 61+ seats is required to start a new administration. Numbers listed are expected number of seats for each party based on average of multiple polls.

Right-wing Coalition
Likud 23 (Netanyahu would remain Prime Minister)
Jewish Home 12
Yisrael Beiteinu 6
(41 total)


Left-Center Coalition
Zionist Camp 24 (Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni would rotate as Prime Ministers)
Yesh Atid 12
Meretz 5
(41 total)

Unknowns
Kulanu* 8
Shas** 7
UTJ** 7
Yachad** 4
(26 up for grabs)

No Coalition
United Arab List 13 (on the record that they will not join any coalition, no matter how left-wing the other parties may be)

*Netanyahu promised the Kulanu leader a high cabinet position if he publicly allied with Likud, but he refused. Has also turned down meeting with Herzog but openly said he trusts Herzog more than he trusts Netanyahu.

**These are the more religiously orthodox parties. They will not join the Left-Center Coalition, but many on the not-as-far-right would not want to be in a coalition with any of them.

Yesh Atid seems to be the party with the most gain this week (the same source said only 9 seats 2 days ago). If these numbers hold steady, Likud can't get to 61 even with the ultra-orthodox parties.

3/3/2015 1:44:02 AM

bdmazur
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Bibi the babysitter:

3/3/2015 4:18:15 AM

Shrike
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3/3/2015 11:11:18 AM

bdmazur
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He didn't say anything that really needed to be said in front of congress. A youtube video or teleconference would have gotten the point across, but I guess he wanted the symbol.

The "controversy" of this speech is really all on Boehner for trying to undermine the President. Netanyahu shouldn't have accepted because now he's driven a wedge into American policy. While it's a very serious subject, the internal bickering about it seems silly on all 4 sides (Obama, Boehner, Netanyahu, and the opposition parties in Israel).

3/3/2015 2:15:40 PM

bdmazur
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Michael Oren agrees:
Quote :
"Michael Oren, the former Israeli ambassador to the US who is running for Knesset with the Kulanu list, said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a “powerful” speech to Congress on Tuesday but “did not offer any new ideas,” and could have made his point while speaking on “any of the American TV networks."

3/3/2015 8:28:42 PM

bdmazur
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14 days out:

Right-wing Coalition
Likud 22 (-1)
Jewish Home 12
Yisrael Beiteinu 7 (+1)
(41 total)


Left-Center Coalition
Zionist Camp 24
Yesh Atid 12
Meretz 6 (+1)
(42 total)

Unknowns
Kulanu 8
Shas 6 (-1)
UTJ 7
Yachad 4
(25 up for grabs)

No Coalition
United Arab List 12 (-1)

Shas leader announced endorsement for Netanyahu today, but that doesn't mean Likud will let them into the coalition.

3/3/2015 8:36:05 PM

bdmazur
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12 days out:

Right-wing Coalition
Likud 22
Jewish Home 12
Yisrael Beiteinu 5 (-2)
(39 total)


Left-Center Coalition
Zionist Camp 23 (-1)
Yesh Atid 13 (+1)
Meretz 6
(42 total)

Unknowns
Kulanu 8
Shas 7 (+1)
UTJ 7
Yachad 4
(26 up for grabs)

No Coalition
United Arab List 13 (+1)

Yachad fined yesterday for campaign violations.

[Edited on March 5, 2015 at 4:01 PM. Reason : -]

3/5/2015 3:58:52 PM

Bullet
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I read that 90% of Netanyahu's 2014 Primary Campaign contributions came from U.S. donors.

I'm not sure if it's true, but wouldn't surprise me.

3/9/2015 2:10:33 PM

bdmazur
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There was an anti-Netanyahu rally yesterday. 35,000 Israelis attended.

3/9/2015 2:11:31 PM

bdmazur
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5 days out:

Right-wing Coalition
Likud 21 (-1)
Jewish Home 11 (-1)
Yisrael Beiteinu 4 (-1)
(36 total)

Left-Center Coalition
Zionist Camp 24 (+1)
Yesh Atid 12 (-1)
Meretz 6
(42 total)

Unknowns
Kulanu 11 (+3)
Shas 7
UTJ 6 (-1)
Yachad 5 (+1)
(26 up for grabs)

No Coalition
United Arab List 13

Report today that Likud's party leaders are in "panic mode"

3/12/2015 2:54:31 PM

Shrike
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I'm gonna chalk this one up to Obama too, he can tell the Republicans not to deal with Netanyahu since his successor won't honor them.

3/13/2015 4:35:21 PM

bdmazur
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2 days to go:

Right-wing Coalition
Likud 21
Jewish Home 11
Yisrael Beiteinu 6 (+2)
(38 total)

Left-Center Coalition
Zionist Camp 25 (+1)
Yesh Atid 11 (-1)
Meretz 5 (-1)
(41 total)

Unknowns
Kulanu 9 (-2)
Shas 9 (+2)
UTJ 6
Yachad 4 (-1)
(25 up for grabs)

No Coalition
United Arab List 13

3/15/2015 3:56:48 PM

HaLo
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Are we going to win??

3/15/2015 11:36:07 PM

eyewall41
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Oh I really hope Netanyahu goes down.

3/16/2015 12:16:20 PM

bdmazur
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^^Not sure who "we" is

Headline today:
Quote :
"Netanyahu, trailing in polls, promises no Palestinian state if elected"


Moderates are going to run to the left after something like that. He also made it incredibly difficult for Kulanu to commit to a right-wing coalition.

[Edited on March 16, 2015 at 4:55 PM. Reason : -]

3/16/2015 4:51:06 PM

bdmazur
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Last day before the election.

Right-wing Coalition
Likud 21
Jewish Home 11
Yisrael Beiteinu 5 (-1)
(37 total)

Left-Center Coalition
Zionist Camp 25
Yesh Atid 12 (+1)
Meretz 5
(42 total)

Unknowns
Kulanu 9
Shas 8 (-1)
UTJ 6
Yachad 4
(27 up for grabs)

No Coalition
United Arab List 13

Yachad is at risk of being below the election threshold, meaning they might not be able to receive any representation in the Knesset.

3/16/2015 5:11:00 PM

bdmazur
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4 hours until voting starts.

Right-wing rally happening in Tel-Aviv.

Yachad trying to come to terms with Shas now that they appear to be below the threshold. (Yachad broke away from Shas last year), but Shas leader says there can be no make-up at the finish line.

Moshe Kahlon, head of Kulanu, is going to be a very popular man after the election, even if his party only gets 9 seats as predicted. Both leading parties have promised him a high level cabinet position if he joins their coalition (likely Finance Minister).

[Edited on March 16, 2015 at 9:00 PM. Reason : -]

3/16/2015 9:00:21 PM

lewisje
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I guess Netanyahu is trying to rally his base by promising no peace in the Middle East: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/17/world/middleeast/benjamin-netanyahu-campaign-settlement.html

3/16/2015 9:22:21 PM

bdmazur
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^Already mentioned it, read a few posts up.

2 hours into the election. Interesting read on possible scenarios: http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.647138

Support for Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid party) is rising. Last year they polled at 12 seats the day before the election and then pulled out 19. There's speculation the same might happen again.

Netanyahu is trying to unite the right, saying if people want him as PM then they have to vote for his party. He's right, but it's going to piss off all the other right-wing parties who might not want to be in a coalition after he tried to take away their seats.



[Edited on March 17, 2015 at 3:05 AM. Reason : -]

3/17/2015 2:49:59 AM

bdmazur
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Quote :
"Netanyahu's Likud party admitted to forging a recording of Kulanu leaders Moshe Kahlon promising to support Netanyahu, according to a Kulanu spokesman.

The party distributed the recording to potential voters on Monday evening, but Central Elections Committee Judge Salim Joubran ordered the group to halt using the recording at Kulanu's request.

Kahlon called the recording "criminal" and asked Joubran to open a criminal investigation into it."


Another reason for Kulanu not to join the right wing coalition.

3/17/2015 4:21:27 AM

bdmazur
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Almost 15% of eligible voters had already cast a ballot within the first 2 hours of the election.

American elections usually only bring out 60% of voters in Presidential years (and 40% in midterms). Israel is expecting 80% turnout this year.

3/17/2015 6:06:24 AM

NyM410
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So what would be the reaction here if Obama said, in 2012 that too many Jews were voting and to get out there and beat them.

Because that is basically what Bibi said about Arabs..

3/17/2015 11:30:44 AM

dtownral
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if he was republican just called them urban... none reaction

3/17/2015 12:00:42 PM

eyewall41
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Any idea how long it will take to know the results?

3/17/2015 1:56:34 PM

bdmazur
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Official results get released on Thursday, but the voting ends at 4pm eastern/1pm pacific and there should be exit polling data released shortly after.

Live English radio analysis here: http://www.voiceofisrael.com/
(You have to make an account but it is free and takes 5 seconds to do)

Less than 2 hours to go.

Worth mentioning that the party with the most seats (still looking like Zionist Camp) does not automatically get to select the PM. The President of Israel selects the individual most likely to form a government (which is always the party leader of the group with most seats, in this case Herzog), and that person has 28 days to form a coalition of 61+ seats.

It is highly unlikely any candidate can form a coalition at this point unless the Arab List goes with Herzog, but all signs point to that not happening. This will force what is called a 'Unity Government" which always fails. Unity would also put the Arab List as the largest opposition party, putting them in a power position they've never had before.

[Edited on March 17, 2015 at 2:15 PM. Reason : -]

3/17/2015 2:11:09 PM

0EPII1
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this shamless racist zionist oppressor is such a shameless racist zionist oppressor

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/18/world/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-elections-arabs.html

Netanyahu Expresses Alarm Over Strong Arab Voter Turnout

Quote :
"JERUSALEM — Increasingly worried that he could lose Tuesday’s elections, Prime Minister of Israel lashed out at the country’s Arab voters, expressing alarm that a large turnout by them could determine the outcome. Opponents accused him of baldfaced racism."


and this hell-dweller is seen as a "partner in peace"? and is supported by millions of americans?

hope he goes the way of sharon in the same exact way, like today. the 2 butchers can chill together in hell, they deserve each other.

3/17/2015 2:31:30 PM

bdmazur
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Rumor has it Yachad is currently below the threshold. If Netanyahu can't get Kulanu, there's no way to reach 61 on the right even with the other orthodox parties.

3/17/2015 3:43:11 PM

bdmazur
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Voting is now closed. I'll be posting projections as I hear them.

10 minutes after closing:
Likud - 27
Zionist Union - 27
Arab List - 13
Yesh Atid - 12
Kulanu - 12

These numbers are only projections, not official, and do not include "Double Envelope" votes (soldiers, hospital patients, others who did not vote at official polling places). The tie for the top 2 is being considered a victory for Likud since they were polling much lower just a few days ago. Yachad is projected beneath the threshold. Other parties coming soon.

18 minutes after closing:
Jewish Home - 9
Shas - 7
UTJ - 6
Meretz - 5
Yisrael Beiteinu - 5

Members of Jewish Home are blaming Likud for cannibalizing them. So although Likud received more seats to bolster Netanyahu's chances, they have hurt their own coalition.

Coalition totals:
Right wing (Likud, YB, JH) - 41
Left-Center (ZU, YA, Meretz) - 44
Center (Kulanu) - 12
Orthodox (Shas, UTJ) - 13
Arab List - 13

[Edited on March 17, 2015 at 4:26 PM. Reason : -]

3/17/2015 4:01:19 PM

dtownral
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Netanyahu is claiming that American money is driving Arabs to vote

3/17/2015 4:38:57 PM

y0willy0
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If he's as much of an asshole / dictator as you guys claim... he's going to win (one way or another).

This is one of the more interesting soap box threads in awhile.

3/17/2015 4:43:19 PM

bdmazur
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Live video analysis: http://www.mediaite.com/online/watch-live-israeli-election-results/

Israeli president is calling for National Unity Government, but Netanyahu is saying no.

[Edited on March 17, 2015 at 5:05 PM. Reason : -]

3/17/2015 5:02:57 PM

moron
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So what does it mean Netanyahu doesn't want a unity government?

3/17/2015 6:04:18 PM

bdmazur
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Unity government would mean shared leadership between Netanyahu and Herzog, and possibly a rotating PM. Netanyahu wants full control so he will do what he can to secure 61+ seats without Herzog.

However...even with the right-wing parties plus the ultra orthodox, he only has 54.
Herzog, if he gets Kulanu, would at most have 56.

The Arab List would have to join the Center-Left in for Herzog to win outright. Kulanu would have to join the right for Netanyahu to keep his spot. I don't think either group wants to go in that direction, leaving a stalemate.

3/17/2015 6:59:56 PM

bbehe

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So Likud can win the most seats out of all the parties, but the fact is if more seats from other parties support Herzog for PM, he gets the title?

3/17/2015 7:16:04 PM

bdmazur
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The President (Reuven Rivlin) gets to choose which candidate he feels has the best chance to form a coalition. The candidate has 28 days to try, and if he/she fails, another candidate will have 28 days. This means we might have to wait 2 months and still not have a PM in place.

The best comparison I can make to American politics is the Speaker of the House. Each party selects their choice for speaker, and then they vote, with the majority party winning (assuming they had more than 50% of the votes). Only 2 or 3 times in US history was there no party with over 50% (silly Whigs).

In Israel, with 11 different parties receiving seats, no party has ever received more than half of the seats (I think the largest ever was 56 seats, still short of the necessary 61). So, in order to get your guy voted in as PM, you have to get the smaller parties who have no chance at all to throw their support behind you. Yisrael Beiteinu has already promised their votes to Netanyahu and Meretz has promised theirs to Herzog. The others I've been listing as part of the coalitions will fall into line by the end of tomorrow.

Kulanu and the Arab List are the wild cards.

3/17/2015 7:54:03 PM

bdmazur
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Quote :
"Kahlon, the head of the Kulanu Party, was noncommittal late Tuesday when asked which candidate he would endorse for the premiership.

"I said this throughout the campaign – I will endorse the candidate who is committed to healing the country's socioeconomic woes, bringing down housing prices, and lowering the cost of living," Kahlon told Channel 2."


Likud is all about security and foreign affairs. Labor is leading the socioeconomic revolution:

Quote :
""It's all wide open," [Herzog] said. "I've talked with the heads of all of the parties. We don't know what the end results will be, and we will wait, but I plan to do all I can to form a socioeconomic coalition, a real socioeconomic coalition for Israel."

Herzog called on the heads of smaller parties to "unite under my banner and join a national reconciliation government.""

3/17/2015 8:09:00 PM

bdmazur
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New projections with 25% of ballots counted. It could just be coincidence that this first batch had a bunch of Likud votes...I'm praying that's the case. Nothing really changes though, because with the ultra-orthodox but without Kulanu, Likud is only at 60, not 61.

Right-wing Coalition
Likud 32
Jewish Home 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
(46 total)

Left-Center Coalition
Zionist Camp 25
Yesh Atid 11
Meretz 5
(41 total)

Uncommitted
Kulanu 10
Shas 8
UTJ 6
United Arab List 9
(33 up for grabs)

A fun comment from a JPost reporter about President Rivlin:
Quote :
"His associates say he won’t force a unity government, but he will encourage one. Anyone with a Jewish mother knows that sometimes it’s hard to tell the difference between the two."


[Edited on March 17, 2015 at 8:55 PM. Reason : -]

3/17/2015 8:50:55 PM

lewisje
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"3:55 a.m. With 81 percent of precincts reporting": http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Election-Live-Blog-Follow-the-latest-updates-394059

Right 45
Likud 31
Bayit Yehudi 8 ("Jewish Home")
Yisrael Beytenu 6

Left-Center 40
Zionist Union 24
Yesh Atid 11
Meretz 5

Uncommitted 35
Joint Arab List 11
Kulanu 10
Shas 8
United Torah Judaism 6

"Eli Yishai's far-right outfit Yahad has so far failed to attract the sufficient number of votes to gain entry into the Knesset."

3/17/2015 10:03:54 PM

moron
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If a 2 state solution is off the table for Netanyahu, what's his solution? He obviously doesnt like Arabs, so I don't see him welcoming them into the country.

3/17/2015 11:08:42 PM

Smath74
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http://m.therightscoop.com/boom-netanyahu-win-over-herzog-not-even-close/

According to this unbiased link it was a landslide victory.

3/17/2015 11:33:24 PM

bdmazur
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That source obviously doesn't understand how the coalitions work. A landslide would be a clear 61+ seats between Likud, Jewish Home, and Yisrael Beiteinu. Those three only have 43.

The central-left coalition is at 39. Kulanu would put them at 49.

And 29-24 is much less of a lead than the 32-25 reported earlier.

But I suppose if you want to ignore 10 other political parties, then sure.

[Edited on March 17, 2015 at 11:45 PM. Reason : -]

3/17/2015 11:44:43 PM

0EPII1
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Quote :
"Likud is all about security oppression and foreign affairs invasions."

3/18/2015 4:15:00 AM

GrumpyGOP
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Not thrilled with this outcome.

3/18/2015 5:05:27 AM

0EPII1
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http://globalvoicesonline.org/2015/03/16/israeli-bloggers-ask-why-is-gaza-not-an-issue-in-the-upcoming-israeli-elections/

good read

not surprising though... you can't expect oppressors to be concerned about their victims -- past, present or future -- and have it on the agenda when deciding which oppressors to choose as the head oppressors.

god bless the righteous jews and israelis who are not oppressors, butchers, or zionists.

3/18/2015 5:15:52 AM

eyewall41
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The fascist won again I see.

3/18/2015 8:13:07 AM

y0willy0
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[Edited on March 18, 2015 at 9:45 AM. Reason : -]

3/18/2015 9:45:14 AM

bbehe

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Nc state shit knows no bounds.

Any real chance that Herzog becomes PM?

3/18/2015 10:08:22 AM

TerdFerguson
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If Netanyahu had just muddled through and eeked out a victory, I'd be pretty uninterested in the whole thing, it would be business as usual.

But towards the end, He said some stuff that I thought would be pretty concerning to a majority of Israelis, tacked even more to the right, and then won somewhat handily.

How exactly is anyone going to take him seriously when he shows up at any two-state peace negotiations after he openly said it ain't gonna happen under his watch?

3/18/2015 10:39:04 AM

Pupils DiL8t
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It appears that the center-left received the same number of votes that polling had predicted; however, Netanyahu received more votes than polling had predicted, and the parties further to the right received less votes than polling had predicted.

Who knew that fear mongering wins elections?

[Edited on March 18, 2015 at 11:30 AM. Reason : ]

3/18/2015 11:25:29 AM

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