bernies very high unfavorability is kind of worrying if he’s the nominee. I guess I haven’t seen how this is distributed by states but it could extra motivate people on the right to vote against him. I know many people who dismiss him as “socialist” but would otherwise agree with him if they looked at his policies.

1/2/2020 3:34:25 PM

the right will attack biden for being a lib commie socialist, they will do that for any candidate

1/2/2020 3:37:28 PM

Anyone who thinks the right won’t attack ANY candidate for nonsense big and small or just outright make up shit is an idiot.

Vote who you think is best for the country, not who may or may not fall prey to bad faith rightwing bullshit. Jesus.

1/2/2020 3:43:48 PM

I'm also confused about the "very high unfavorability" claim

Bernie -3.3
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/bernie_sanders_favorableunfavorable-6676.html

Biden -3.7
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/joe_biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html

Warren -4.7
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/elizabeth_warren_favorableunfavorable-6675.html

Buttiegig -0.5 likely because people don't know him yet
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/pete_buttigieg_favorableunfavorable-6816.html

[Edited on January 2, 2020 at 4:22 PM. Reason : .]

1/2/2020 4:20:40 PM

Quote :

" Elizabeth Warren @ewarren · 1h Soleimani was a murderer, responsible for the deaths of thousands, including hundreds of Americans. But this reckless move escalates the situation with Iran and increases the likelihood of more deaths and new Middle East conflict. Our priority must be to avoid another costly war."

When did he kill hundreds of Americans?

Quote :

"Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders Trump's dangerous escalation brings us closer to another disastrous war in the Middle East that could cost countless lives and trillions more dollars. Trump promised to end endless wars, but this action puts us on the path to another one."

I know the debate has been put to rest but I had to show this bernie tweet for contrast

[Edited on January 3, 2020 at 1:22 AM. Reason : added the bernie tweet for contrast]

1/3/2020 1:05:58 AM

IIRC 2003-2011. Bush almost killed him in 2006 but chickened out.

1/3/2020 1:08:50 AM

Its funny you mention that

Quote :

"Following the September 11 attacks of 2001, Ryan Crocker, a senior State Department official in the United States, flew to Geneva to meet with Iranian diplomats who were under the direction of Soleimani with the purpose of collaborating to destroy the Taliban, which had targeted Shia Afghanis.[24] This collaboration was instrumental in defining the targets of bombing operations in Afghanistan and in capturing key Al-Qaeda operatives, but abruptly ended in January 2002, when George W. Bush named Iran as part of the "Axis of evil" in his State of the Union address."

1. Hire taliban to fight USSR
2. Hire Hussein to fight Iran and take out kurds
3. Hire Soleimani to fight the taliban
4. Take out Hussein
5. Hire (what became ISIS) to fight Assad
6. Hire Kurds to take out ISIS
7. Take out Kurds
8. Take out Solemani (who was fighting ISIS)

A gangster nation trying to leave no loose ends.

1/3/2020 1:19:19 AM

Warren, Klobuchar and Booker's Q4 numbers out

Sanders $34.5M (vs $25.3M Q3, +36%)
Buttigieg $24.7M (vs $19.1M Q3, +29%)
Biden $22.7M (vs $15.2M Q3, +40% at least)
Warren $21.2M (vs $24.6M Q3, -19%)
Yang $16.5M (vs $10M Q3, +65%)
Klobuchar $11.4M (vs $4.8M Q3)
Booker $6.6M (vs $6M Q3)
Tulsi $3.4M (vs $3M Q3, +13%)

[Edited on January 3, 2020 at 3:30 PM. Reason : .]

1/3/2020 9:59:10 AM

At some point I hope Warren will drop out and endorse Bernie. If Bernie were losing I’d say the same thing for him. This election is too important.

1/3/2020 10:39:04 AM

Bernie nor Warren will drop out and endorse the other just like how neither Cruz, Kasich, or Rubio dropped out to endorse one person

1/3/2020 10:47:45 AM

Well I'd like to think that's because Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio are all terrible freaks and Bernie and Warren presumably want to actually make the world a better place.

They did meet and talk before the primary so I hope there's a plan to combine votes.

1/3/2020 10:55:44 AM

I don't recall ANY bernie supporters suggesting bernie drop out when Warren was surging well ahead of him September - November.

Quote :

"At some point I hope Bernie will drop out and endorse Hillary. If Hillary were losing I’d say the same thing for her. This election is too important."

Quote :

"At some point I hope Hillary will drop out and endorse Obama. If Obama were losing I’d say the same thing for him. This election is too important."

[Edited on January 3, 2020 at 11:43 AM. Reason : tribes]

1/3/2020 11:39:38 AM

3-5 months before the start of the primary, vs 1 month before the primary with Biden still far in the lead

plus the fundraising numbers and general election polling. it's obvious who has the stronger bid.

[Edited on January 3, 2020 at 12:03 PM. Reason : .]

1/3/2020 11:56:54 AM

So I guess everyone should drop out and endorse Biden so he can start focusing on the general

1/3/2020 12:07:47 PM

What? The point is to defeat Biden and run someone progressive. So rather than risk mutual defeat, the weaker of the two progressives should drop out and endorse the stronger at some point before the primary begins.

1/3/2020 12:16:26 PM

or, the point is to defeat Trump and run a Democrat. Bernie hasn't (with very few exceptions) been within 10 points of Biden since Biden entered.

to be clear, I don't think Biden will match up all that well against Trump. I think if Bernie gets the nomination there's a better chance the enthusiasm of his base will lead to a win vs Trump but it's not guaranteed. And I'm definitely not looking forward to the increase in divisiveness a Bernie/Trump matchup will produce.

mostly I'm just irritated at the notion that bernie is entitled to warren's (or anybody else's) supporters. feel free to ignore me.

[Edited on January 3, 2020 at 12:37 PM. Reason : .]

1/3/2020 12:31:57 PM

um it's january 3rd

1/3/2020 12:34:46 PM

Quote :

"I don't recall ANY bernie supporters suggesting bernie drop out when Warren was surging well ahead of him September - November."

I basically made this point at that time, I pointed out that more Sanders supporters listed Warren as their second choice than Warren supporters listed Sanders so there was an argument for Sanders to drop out and support Warren (although I also said it was way too early for anyone to drop out and do that)

Quote :

"if we are talking about combining supporter bases it would make more sense for sanders to drop out than for warren to drop out. if warren drops out harris is the second pick for the majority of her supporters, but if sanders drops out warren is their top second pick and sanders also has more people undecided on a second pick so there is an opportunity to pick up even more of his support. 8/22/2019 12:40:42 PM"

[Edited on January 3, 2020 at 12:40 PM. Reason : ,]

1/3/2020 12:37:25 PM

fair enough. you didn't start supporting warren then though, and i wouldn't have expected you or anybody else to.

i guess my larger point is, just let people vote for who they want to vote for in the primary.

1/3/2020 12:43:18 PM

Quote :

"mostly I'm just irritated at the notion that bernie is entitled to warren's (or anybody else's) supporters. feel free to ignore me."

No one is entitled to anyone's vote, but we're at a pivotal moment in history with climate change and the global rise of fascism, and we have the chance to elect a strong progressive in the most powerful country on earth.

1/3/2020 12:43:32 PM

Quote :

"i guess my larger point is, just let people vote for who they want to vote for in the primary. "

i think that argument only works if all of the primaries/conventions (and the corresponding delegate allocation) happened at the same time

1/3/2020 12:45:02 PM

I think the "just let people vote for who they want to vote for" principle is applicable in any context

but I understand the spirit of the "Other candidates should drop out so Bernie can consolidate" argument. you do you.

[Edited on January 3, 2020 at 12:55 PM. Reason : .]

1/3/2020 12:54:41 PM

Looks like Steyer has reached the 225k donors threshold for the January debate.

He still needs 2 polls to qualify, and considering SOMEHOW there haven't been any early state polls released in 50 days (since before even the November debate) where pretty much all the candidates have been investing their efforts, it's gonna be difficult for him to qualify for the debate regardless. We'll see how many polls are released before the Jan 10 cutoff.

[Edited on January 3, 2020 at 1:03 PM. Reason : .]

1/3/2020 1:02:38 PM

with many candidates, candidates divide support among people who may strongly support multiple candidates which means that 2 or more candidates with overlapping support can lose to another candidate who has more support from a single candidate but less than the combined support of candidates with overlapping support. this can lead to a candidate winning the nomination without maximum energy behind them.

we compound this problem by spacing out primaries/conventions in an order that doesn't reflect either the party's demographics or how states are important in the general.

the support who you like and have all candidates stay in to the end works in a instant runoff voting system, maybe it's passable if everyone voted at the same time, but in our broken system it's an idea that means that popular platforms can lose out even if they have wide appeal


[Edited on January 3, 2020 at 1:05 PM. Reason : brok]

1/3/2020 1:02:55 PM

I understand why someone would vote Warren or Yang if it were Biden and Bloomberg in front...but the reality is you have an excellent candidate right in front of you with a real shot at winning, with the alternative being an awful candidate with awful policies and a half-functioning brain.

1/3/2020 1:09:39 PM

a bit of a change of subject although it's related. and this is a sincere question

if Biden is such an awful candidate, why do you think Bernie hasn't been able to break into Biden's lead after this many months? it's not like 2016 when Bernie was still trying to grow name recognition and needed a lot of time to catch up to Hillary.

why does Bernie have double digit negative favorability ratings with independents (as do Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Bloomberg)

[Edited on January 3, 2020 at 1:28 PM. Reason : .]

1/3/2020 1:25:56 PM

Quote :

"if Biden is such an awful candidate, why do you think Bernie hasn't been able to break into Biden's lead after this many months? it's not like 2016 when Bernie was still trying to grow name recognition and needed a lot of time to catch up to Hillary."

Biden represents a continuation of the Obama years and that's all many Democrats want. But he lacks the capacity and organizing ability to generate enthusiasm within the growing progressive wing of the party. Bernie (or Warren, or Yang for that matter) would be doing better if there weren't as many candidates in the race splitting the vote.

Quote :

"why does Bernie have double digit negative favorability ratings with independents (as do Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Bloomberg)"

You'd have to link me to some polling data, because the only one I can find that clearly shows this is from the Economist which has been extremely biased against the left.

[Edited on January 3, 2020 at 1:57 PM. Reason : .]

1/3/2020 1:55:07 PM

Biden's "lead" is basically just deep red states and states where no one has really campaigned. Bernie has made up ground or taken the lead in all of the important States and has consistently outraised Biden. The fundraising numbers show Bernie's ability to organize and move people. The lack of polling helps keep that lie going though. I really don't care how much conservatives hate Bernie and love Biden. We've played that game before. They will all vote Trump.

Quote :

"What? The point is to defeat Biden and run someone progressive. So rather than risk mutual defeat, the weaker of the two progressives should drop out and endorse the stronger at some point before the primary begins."

No. The point is, has always been, and probably will continue to be to serve her own self-interests. We saw it in 1986, 2016, 2018, 2019, and I expect it to continue in 2020. Progressive values are nothing more than the vessel of choice for this part of her journey.

1/3/2020 2:01:22 PM

Will be interesting to see how foreign affairs is escalated in the Democratic primary. Seems Biden is far and away polling better on foreign policy. FWIW, I think Tulsi has the best FA platform of all Dem candidates. Hope to see her numbers increase over the next few weeks.

Also, did anyone see Warren reissue her statement to match Bernie's? Why does anyone still support this fraud?

1/3/2020 2:23:32 PM

link?

1/3/2020 3:02:43 PM

Economist
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/t4lyjjoemc/econTabReport.pdf
with Independents:
Bernie 32/46 (-14)
Biden 28/49 (-21)
Warren 29/46 (-17)
Buttigieg 24/40 (-16)
Klobuchar 21/36 (-15)
Yang 31/30 (+1)

Quinnipiac
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us12102019_uwhp13.pdf
with Independents:
Bernie 45/45 (0)
Biden 44/45 (-1)
Warren 36/45 (-9)
Buttigieg 32/21 (+11)
Klobuchar 25/19 (+6)

Monmouth
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_121019.pdf
with independents:
Bernie 39/56 (-17)
Biden 38/57 (-19)
Warren 32/55 (-23)
Buttigieg 34/33 (+1)
Yang 25/26 (-1)

with independents + leans independent:
Bernie 25/65 (-40)
Biden 34/66 (-32)
Warren 25/55 (-30)
Buttigieg 33/32 (+1)
Yang 24/30 (-6)

I didn't bother with bloomberg but his are horrible. though that reminds me, bloomberg got 11% in a harris/hill poll released today

[Edited on January 3, 2020 at 3:27 PM. Reason : and bloomberg opened an office in raleigh today. boy is spending some money.]

1/3/2020 3:18:07 PM

I asked a real question about Yang and you dismissed it as trolling so I'll refrain from responding until you explain why insurance coverage isnt a "big issue" for yang

1/3/2020 3:42:37 PM

^^
1. I don't think you have enough data to come to that conclusion. Economist and Monmouth polls are wildly skewed, and the other one you posted has Bernie at even favorability with independents.

2. Even if favorability is low, general election polling still shows an even split D/R among independents, as expected.

3. We're still in the primary, where Democrats are playing to Democrats, & those numbers will likely change. Biden, Warren, Buttiegig, etc would play to the right in the general. Bernie and Yang would run as outsiders to the Democratic party who are trying to steer it in the right direction.

4. Yang's numbers are only higher because people don't know who he is, this is common.

1/3/2020 3:54:31 PM

The whole "independents" classification is a bit misleading anyway because it only counts "likely voters". I feel like a lot of people think "independents" means anyone who is not affiliated with a party. Its the non-voter to voter swing vote that really outnumbers every type of "undecided" and has the most potential to change the outcome of the election. The Bernie campaign is specifically targeting non voters and running a strategy to win with a massive turnout of first-time voters. Polling does not account for those people.

1/4/2020 10:26:49 AM

yeah that's fine. I posted the data I did, but I'm not making it out to be more than it is either. def taken with a grain of salt. but there's definitely a very clear and strong shift in Bernie's favorability from positive to negative the more you move from strong Dem to lean Dem to Independent to lean Rep to strong Rep. All the polls show Bernie either with negative or even favorability with Independents, and that measure is as close a proxy as i've seen available to measuring the "disaffected voter" demographic.

guess we'll know the real deal when people start voting in a few weeks!

[Edited on January 4, 2020 at 12:38 PM. Reason : .]

1/4/2020 12:37:56 PM

https://twitter.com/zachmontellaro/status/1213845940450271233?s=21

3 way tie in Iowa with Pete, Biden, and buttigieg

Sanders had a slim lead in NH over the rest

Very interesting...

1/6/2020 1:27:40 AM

Sounds like pete has a 2-1 advantage over Biden in Iowa

1/6/2020 4:36:53 AM

The potential youngest and first-ever gay&"female"(with a husband) POTUS.

[Edited on January 6, 2020 at 9:11 AM. Reason : who can stop this monster?]

1/6/2020 9:09:47 AM

Man I don't know if you are an alias or what but you sure are bigoted!

1/6/2020 10:17:34 AM

Yes, I'm Asian, a minority. So I have different views or opinions I guess?

[Edited on January 6, 2020 at 10:45 AM. Reason : I'm just trying to analyze why he's so unstoppable.]

1/6/2020 10:32:50 AM

Julian Castro endorses Warren

1/6/2020 10:36:21 AM

remember when people thought this guy was progressive?

https://twitter.com/petebuttigieg/status/1214208409140117504?s=21

1/6/2020 6:16:04 PM

If being progressive is supporting Maduro I will be centrist all day long?

1/6/2020 6:50:01 PM

Yang punching way above his weight in New Mexico.

1/6/2020 7:37:47 PM

^^
The socialist position is to support Maduro against imperialism

The progressive position is to oppose both Maduro and imperialism

Everything to the right of that is to support Guaido despite him being transparently propped up by the US government and other right wing terrorist organizations

1/6/2020 7:58:17 PM

Texting for Bernie is such a joy!

Quote :

"How dare you, David, to even think other than our sitting President, Donald J. Trump !!! His Unmatched Wisdom and guidance has straightened out our economy and done so very much more for this USA. You must have lost your mind sir. There can be no other than him for President. Could Bernie have gotten that evil man killed in Iran, that general that was responsible for so many innocent dead people? If course Not...!!! I want to continue seeing America get great again.. come on over to the Trump side and be on the winning team. If not, then you are clearly a Loser...!!! Good day to you sir !!!!"

1/7/2020 6:49:34 PM

not everybody's a persuadable

[Edited on January 7, 2020 at 7:23 PM. Reason : #NoMiddleGround]

1/7/2020 7:23:31 PM

It is funny how disarmed they are when they tell you to fuck off and you wish them a nice evening. One guy actually apologized to me today

1/7/2020 8:14:06 PM

Is that an actual response you got? Man that's both hilarious and depressing, haha.

1/7/2020 8:50:24 PM

everybody needs to start focusing on Biden’s vote for Iraq

1/7/2020 8:50:55 PM