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The Coz
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Quote :
"I've been harping about russia but got too complacent and bought calls last week anyway "


Good for you for owning it.

2/15/2022 6:25:51 PM

TragicNature
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I know I'm late AF but anyone else looking at commodities as a hedge against inflation?

What are we buying, my G's?

2/25/2022 11:15:13 AM

The Coz
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VTSAX and Series I Savings Bonds

2/25/2022 3:23:41 PM

David0603
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SPY and Series I Savings Bonds

3/3/2022 4:24:42 PM

The Coz
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^Good call!

3/3/2022 9:51:03 PM

The Coz
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Quote :
"Paypal"


Good call, dude. I hope that was play money and / or a very quick turnaround. Otherwise, RIP for now.

4/30/2022 9:59:16 AM

TragicNature
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Quote :
"I hope that was play money and / or a very quick turnaround."


Looking at the 5 year on PYPL. Brutal!

You know it's about to get ugly when FINRA is "seeking comment on measures that could prevent or restrict investors from buying a broad range of public securities designated as “complex products”—which could include the leveraged and inverse funds offered by ProShares."

FINRA be like... "We're protecting you from yourself!" ie; Can't have commoners profiting when the market shits the bed!

Comment period ends 05/09/2022.

https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/notices/22-08

https://www.proshares.com/globalassets/proshares/documents/resources/leteveryoneinvest_1.pdf

5/4/2022 3:52:52 AM

TragicNature
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Quote :
"...and Series I Savings Bonds"


Wow, these bonds look really attractive provided govt doesn't go tits up. Just want to make sure I'm understanding correctly...

I buy a $10,000 bond and earn 9.6% interest MONTHLY?!

5/8/2022 12:48:34 PM

The Coz
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They're good right now, but not THAT good.

If you buy now, you will get a 9.62% annualized (not monthly) return for a period of a rolling 6 months. The rate will change in 6 months with official announcement in November, but able to be precisely predicted in October. April was a good time to buy, because you could have locked in 7.12% for 6 months followed by 9.62% for 6 months. The November rate is currently unknown. Could be higher, or could be lower. Hopefully lower, because that means inflation is getting under control. You must keep the bonds for a full year, and the after that if you redeem before 5 years, you surrender the final 3 months worth of interest (less problematic when inflation is low). You can buy up to $10,000 annually per person, so if you have a spouse, that's $20,000 per year. The bonds can be held up to 30 years. Federal taxes on the interest can be deferred until the year of redemption. Interest is state tax free, and totally free if used to fund qualifying educational expenses.

5/8/2022 5:04:33 PM

StTexan
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The Coz will you be my financial advisor and put my money in good places?

5/9/2022 5:14:49 AM

The Coz
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No, I am not licensed for such and don't want to be blamed for declines in account value during the normal business cycle, but I will recommend you good resources for the price of FREE. There is typically no need to pay a financial advisor if you are willing to take on the minimal effort to educate yourself. They just skim off the top anyway.

5/9/2022 6:20:44 AM

TragicNature
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^3 Thanks for taking the time to explain The Coz. You the real MVP!

[Edited on May 10, 2022 at 11:01 AM. Reason : space pwnt]

5/10/2022 11:00:54 AM

The Coz
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Anytime. Sorry bout the space.

Another thing that can take a while to grasp is that they change the interest rates twice a year, but if you buy within any window, you get the current rate for 6 months, even if you buy during the last month at which that particular rate is current. Your rate changes based on the month you buy, and could be up to 5 months out of phase with the official rate change announcements.

Also, a "trick" is that if you buy late in the month, you get credit for the full month of interest, allowing you to double up for about 25 days or so if you are earning non-zero interest in a savings account up to the actual date of purchase. For example, buy on May 30 and you are credited with having bought on May 1. This counts toward your interest, duration of holding, etc.

5/10/2022 2:24:01 PM

The Coz
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This thread sure got quiet. I've continued to buy automatically every Monday.

6/7/2022 9:40:37 PM

synapse
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I'm not buying till the VIX hits 36

[Edited on June 8, 2022 at 11:36 AM. Reason : ]

6/8/2022 11:35:55 AM

DonMega
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well, I took investing advice from the internet and bought 10k of i bonds based on The Coz.

I have a chunk of change I have saved to build a pavilion in my backyard, but after 2 years of trying to find contractors and the permitting process, I'm contemplating giving up and just investing it all.

6/8/2022 9:25:21 PM

The Coz
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^w00t!

6/9/2022 1:27:03 AM

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the i bonds seem like a no brainer

6/9/2022 9:39:20 AM

Kickstand
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My Roth is down ~$22,000 since I started really checking it weekly around February. I guess someone here could figure out my approximate balance based on market trends, but it's nothing to brag about.

FML, fuck this economy

6/10/2022 1:39:14 PM

Elwood
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well hey you are buying in lower per paycheck that's gotta count for something right.

6/10/2022 2:12:06 PM

The Coz
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^^Don't sweat it, dude. 10 years from now, this will look like a great buying opportunity. TWW is old, but none of us is THAT old. Time is on your side. Keep saving and investing.

This is also an example of anchoring bias. S&P 500 closing price for today take us all the way back to. . . March 2021. Try not to anchor to your all-time high balances. This is ephemeral.

6/10/2022 6:47:58 PM

dmspack
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Quote :
" This is also an example of anchoring bias. S&P 500 closing price for today take us all the way back to. . . March 2021. "


Definitely a helpful (and more reasonable) way to look at it.

6/10/2022 8:20:29 PM

Kickstand
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Thanks for the reassurance, Coz. I do plan to not touch it for 20 ish more years, sans any life-altering medical debt.

6/11/2022 10:54:11 AM

anonymous
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Even though the current i bond rate is over 8%, that is the max option available right now on the Treasury Direct website. Would you say this image accurately shows what a realistic value of a $10,000 bond bought today would be worth in 20 years?

Essentially I am trying to convince my financially uber conservative wife that it is a good idea for us to spend $20k on these right now and she needs visuals!



[Edited on July 7, 2022 at 1:30 PM. Reason : image?]

7/7/2022 1:27:48 PM

David0603
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The i-bond rate is only good for six months. It's still a really good deal though.

7/7/2022 6:50:31 PM

The Coz
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^^Well, in general, there's nothing much more conservative than US Savings Bonds, so if she can't be convinced to invest in that, good luck ever getting her to invest in anything else. It's a good enough graphic. However, assuming we eventually get inflation under control, I would think 8% annual growth rate might be an over-promise for Savings Bonds. The Series I Bonds are actually a combination of a fixed rate and a variable rate linked to inflation. The fixed rate is currently 0% and has been for a while, so the 9.62% rate on bonds bought today is all variable. Since there is no fixed component, if inflation cools off, or if deflation occurs, the same bonds that pay 9.62% today could eventually pay literally 0%. You won't lose money, but you won't make any during such periods.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_iratesandterms.htm

As information, the fixed rate on I Bonds was once as high as 3.40%, meaning those bonds are now paying 3.40% + 9.62% = 13.02%. Sorry, no time machines!

Another option with a guaranteed return for long-term lock-up is Series EE bonds. These currently pay a crap rate of 0.10%, but IF you plan to hold them for 20 years, they are guaranteed to double in value (one-time true-up payment), giving you an effective annual rate of 3.5% regardless of inflation. They have a separate $10,000 annual purchase limit (meaning you could max those AND I Bonds separately in the same year if you chose to). DON'T buy these unless you plan to hold for 20 years.

But as for your original question, it's a good rate with little downside as long as you hold the I Bonds at least 1 year.

7/7/2022 6:56:03 PM

HaLo
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The I bonds are designed just to keep your 10k on par with inflation. Right now if you aren’t making 8.5% or so on any investment you’re losing money to inflation. If inflation goes down (as we all hopefully hope it does) then the I bond rate will go down but your 10k won’t be any worse off

*a clarification to ^. you absolutely must hold I bonds for 1 year, there is no way to get your money out until after a year

[Edited on July 7, 2022 at 7:52 PM. Reason : .]

7/7/2022 7:50:56 PM

The Coz
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Thanks. I assumed you just forfeit all interest if you withdrew before a year, but never investigated further since I knew I would hold for a year.

7/7/2022 9:17:36 PM

HaLo
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There is technically one way to sell before a year but you must be in a federal disaster zone.

7/7/2022 9:28:23 PM

The Coz
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I'll just keep them, I hope.

7/7/2022 10:26:59 PM

anonymous
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We wouldn't 'need' the $20k in the next year, and most likely even 5 years (the minimum to avoid any interest penalty). We would still have plenty in savings for 'emergency fund'. And i do not see inflation cooling much in the next 5 years. At least not significantly enough to make a huge impact on the bond rate.

Since we right now have that money sitting in a money market account with 0.3% interest rate, it seems silly to NOT get the bonds at this point.

7/8/2022 10:45:37 AM

The Coz
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Correct.

And for funds in excess of that, 0.30% in the money market is not really competitive. You can either buy Treasury Bills, or check out Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX), which is currently yielding 1.43% and adapts quickly to Federal Reserve rate changes.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/0033?LegacyFlag=LGF

Or if you need or prefer FDIC-insured, get a Marcus or Ally High Yield Savings account. I use Marcus (they allow more than 6 withdrawals per month with no penalty, so I use it for auto-debit to pay my credit cards and other bills) and they are currently offering 1.20%. PM me if you want a referral link and they will juice it by an additional 1% for three months -- so 2.20% minimum for 3 months FDIC-insured up to $500,000 for joint accounts.

7/8/2022 11:39:19 AM

Elwood
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amazing the interest rates have skyrocketed and my SECU MM is 0.3% i remember back when it was 4%.

7/12/2022 9:45:48 AM

anonymous
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^ SAME!

7/13/2022 1:29:57 PM

StTexan
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Us OG remember [user]anonymous[\user] got that good white pussy. So will remember that good times.

7/14/2022 2:09:20 AM

StTexan
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Jesus I have got to go to AA or something wtf

7/14/2022 9:43:57 PM

The Coz
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Yeah, your posting is a little erratic.

NTTAWWT!

BATMBSWWT!

7/15/2022 2:52:27 PM

The Coz
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Today was a good day if you invested yesterday.

7/19/2022 9:20:40 PM

The Coz
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We won a game yesterday. We win one today, that's called a. . . winning streak! It HAS happened before.

7/20/2022 7:17:25 PM

The Coz
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Oh, shit! We goin' for a three-peat!

7/21/2022 3:07:19 PM

The Coz
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Well, 3 out of 4 ain't bad.

7/22/2022 1:35:13 PM

The Coz
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OH, WE BACK?!

8/12/2022 6:49:49 PM

HaLo
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To the moon!

8/12/2022 10:48:36 PM

The Coz
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NASA is going to the moon on Artemis I, launching August 29.

8/15/2022 5:32:05 PM

anonymous
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Well today was a good start to the week

8/22/2022 4:52:17 PM

The Coz
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I invest on Monday every week at close of day prices, so yes, it was!

8/22/2022 9:57:02 PM

anonymous
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For long term holds or you buy EOD monday and sell by the end of the week?

8/24/2022 10:02:12 AM

The Coz
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Long-term holds only. I would never sell VTSAX! Maybe one day. It's not very fashionable, but auto-investment in boring, broadly-diversified index funds on an automated schedule can't be beat. Once you set it up, it requires no time, and no emotional energy. It can run for years uninterrupted. With ETFs and stocks at most brokers, you have to commit and act each time you buy. Intra-day prices don't matter for mutual funds which always transact at the end of day prices. Historically, Mondays had the worst average performance as the markets reacted to bad news that leaked out over the weekend (companies trying to minimize impact), but some sources indicate this effect is mostly gone now. Regardless, I invite you to join me in boredom!

8/24/2022 8:37:37 PM

DonMega
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So I have $200k in company stock from employee stock purchase programs. I left the company last year and was originally planning on just holding until the 1 year mark from the most recent purchase. At the time the stock was going gangbusters and I got complacent and I am the type of person that doesn't like to check stock balances very often (although I will check the price once a week for this particular stock). However the stock is worth less than half what it was in January (RPD), and I have been thinking of selling and just moving it to a general vanguard fund with the rest of my investments.

Part of me hopes the stock rebounds and is kicking myself for not dumping this at the 1 year mark in March, part of me says just follow the investment strategy I use for the rest of my money and move it to vanguard even though the stock is way down this year, and part of me just wants to bury my head in the sand and sell it at some distant point in the future (not deal with this now).

I originally did the stock purchase program because it was a no brainer since the stock was growing fast and I got good discounts and I had always intended to sell and move to Vanguard or stop being so stingy and buy something nice for the family (this is not part of my retirement savings).

Just thinking aloud on the internet. Don't exactly know what to do at this point.

8/30/2022 11:21:50 PM

The Coz
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Best to just make a decision and don't look back. It might come back, or it might not. If it does come back, it might take a very long time to do so in which time other investments might have performed much better. Do you have a tax loss opportunity you can lock up here? If not, then maybe you didn't really lose money anyway. Also, consider that any diversified equity-based funds at Vanguard or elsewhere purchased with the proceeds from a sale would also be purchased at a discount from all-time highs, albeit not a 50% discount. However, they'd still have room to run, and you don't have to agonize about it and can just move on with your life. Next time set a 1-year calendar reminder. I recently finally decided to investing my HSA balance in equity index funds, and my timing was pretty poor in this specific instance, but I've made a rule, and I'm going to follow it and invest the funds when I have them regardless of prices. Over the long run, this is should work out well and requires little to no emotional energy. Just follow the rule. I missed a lot of upside in that account sitting on the funds in cash for several years anticipating a pullback. I was purposely a little more conservative than with normal retirement funds because of the possible need to use them for health expenses and not wanting to do that while balances were depressed, but in retrospect it was stupid and if I had bought all along during those years instead of waiting, I'd be well ahead of where I am now. Live and learn.

8/30/2022 11:40:47 PM

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