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play so hard
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But which airline?



[Edited on April 17, 2020 at 5:34 PM. Reason : I bought some HD and JNJ. Neither was probably smart and obvi not timed the best but we'll see]

4/17/2020 5:32:15 PM

horosho
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AAL is the weakest but has a young fleet of planes that aren't going to evaporate which is why I picked them up first.

DAL is the strongest position so I had to pick that up too.

Expecting to ~triple my money on AAL (13.60-34.99) and on DAL (22.57-63.44).

My only regret is not buying more AAL when it was at 9.

4/18/2020 1:21:40 PM

Geppetto
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Novice question here. but for the stocks that now have attractive dividends, couldn't the dividends just get cut to relatively match previous returns?

4/18/2020 3:20:04 PM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
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It definitely happens. It’s less likely with larger blue chips because so many of the shares are institutionally owned. If the dividend on those were to get cut a lot of shares would get dumped and the stock would crater. GE in Q4 2018 is a good example of this.

There was a lot of pressure on BP to cut their dividend in the wake of the oil spill, but their stock was one of the main holding of several British pension funds so that idea was dropped pretty quickly.

4/18/2020 4:10:25 PM

quiksilver
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I would expect some dividend cuts as valuations drop. They will try not to but if the free cash flow falls they will be forced to. Most big dividend companies in consumer staples will likely survive. Consumer Discretionary stocks will surely be cutting. And as was stated oil stocks will likely cut as people cant travel.

4/19/2020 7:42:45 AM

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When is the drop coming?

Market seems detached from reality and there's only so much the fed can do.

4/19/2020 10:27:50 AM

Mr. Joshua
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Negative oil contracts for the first time ever.

4/20/2020 2:47:40 PM

OmarBadu
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anyone going to take a gamble on USO or any other oil?

4/20/2020 3:12:11 PM

Mr. Joshua
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All in the money calls on USO are up for the day despite the fund being down 10% so a lot of people are betting on a rebound. Sounds like the assumption is that this is some sort of technical error or an overweighted hedge fund dumping contracts. Contracts for June and further out are still at rational numbers.

4/20/2020 3:32:00 PM

David0603
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Not touching oil.

4/20/2020 5:48:28 PM

Mr. Joshua
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lol wow
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2020/04/20/the-us-oil-etf-uso-is-the-culprit-behind-oils-massive-plunge/

4/20/2020 7:40:43 PM

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^^

4/20/2020 9:07:02 PM

theDuke866
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^^^^ contracts for june imply delivery of the physical oil far enough out time-wise that they're hoping the demand comes back up, or relatively economical options for storage (tankers available for lease at a reasonable price, etc) become available.

it went negative $37 today because it's pretty much guaranteed that you'll have to take delivery of a near worthless commodity on a short enough timeframe that you'll have to pay out the ass to store it, or else pay out the ass to exit the contract.

or at least that's my largely uninformed layman's guess on the situation.

[Edited on April 20, 2020 at 9:20 PM. Reason : ]

4/20/2020 9:17:35 PM

Walter
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INO back on another run

4/24/2020 12:43:34 PM

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is it too late to get in on zoom?

4/24/2020 3:36:14 PM

CaelNCSU
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^ didn't $FB just announce free video conference?

4/24/2020 9:39:49 PM

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yeah part of the reason I bought it. i'm not sure it hurt's zoom's business too much. I think people using FB video are a different use case/client base.

I was interested in Zoom back in early March when they were at like $113 and should have bought in there but I think they have plenty of headroom

sold TSLA today
bought ABT, FB, APRN, ZM today

bought HD JNJ and TWOU recently



[Edited on April 24, 2020 at 9:53 PM. Reason : disclaimer - I have no idea what I'm doing]

4/24/2020 9:50:11 PM

David0603
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Nice list. Not too familiar with TWOU
Tough buying abt and zm near their highs
Thinking those are long term plays or short?
Blue apron is up a ton but still 1/3 off their 52 week high in March.
I've used their product as well as home chef, but not a huge fan of either.
I probably like fb the most, just b/c I'm in tec. Ad revenue will suck for the next quarter or so, but should rebound eventually and really like their portfolio of Instagram and a bunch of other companies.

4/27/2020 11:30:30 PM

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Pretty much every position I'm taking RN is based on my belief that what we are living now will be our new normal.

Wanted to go all in on Zoom and Gilead almost 2 months ago with the same thinking.

Bought FB on the news that they're coming out with a Zoom like software

Bought DGX MSFT NKS and TDOC today.

I think this isn't a time you want cash on the sidelines but am happy to hear arguments otherwise.

4/28/2020 12:48:56 AM

Geppetto
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I'm really shocked that we are still seeing the market chug along. The recovery has been measured, but consistent, and while it would still take some time to get back to where we were, it seems things are on the mend.

4/28/2020 11:45:59 AM

David0603
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Curious about downstream ramifications of q2 earnings...

4/28/2020 4:47:20 PM

Walter
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INO is about to moon...it has been heavily shorted (currently around 15-20% of outstanding shares at the last report). Their COVID-19 vaccine they are currently testing uses the exact same process as this MERS coronavirus vaccine :

__________________________________________________________________________________

INOVIO and GeneOne Life Science Report Positive Phase 1/2a Clinical Data With DNA Vaccine INO-4700 for MERS Coronavirus at the American Society of Gene & Cell Therapy (ASGCT) Conference

- INO-4700 (GLS-5300) DNA vaccine demonstrates 100% binding and 92% neutralizing antibody responses against MERS-CoV
- INO-4800 DNA vaccine for COVID-19 currently in Phase 1 trial utilizes identical strategy targeting Spike protein and CELLECTRA intradermal delivery

http://ir.inovio.com/news-releases/news-releases-details/2020/INOVIO-and-GeneOne-Life-Science-Report-Positive-Phase-12a-Clinical-Data-With-DNA-Vaccine-INO-4700-for-MERS-Coronavirus-at-the-American-Society-of-Gene--Cell-Therapy-ASGCT-Conference/default.aspx
__________________________________________________________________________________

4/28/2020 7:56:08 PM

NyM410
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Quote :
" I think this isn't a time you want cash on the sidelines but am happy to hear arguments otherwise."


Is there any historic corollary where there isn’t a market re-test? Obviously there hasn’t been many catastrophic economic collapses the likes of this but a roughly 18% net drop to date from the highs is... not much. I can’t imagine we will continue chugging along indefinitely. The consumer isn’t going to rubberband the demand side immediately no matter what clinical drugs show promise or what states open up tattoo parlors.

The market still seems to be pricing in a more V-shaped recovery which simply isn’t going to happen. I guess the bet is “money printer go brrr” which is probably a safe bet.

[Edited on April 30, 2020 at 10:24 AM. Reason : D]

4/30/2020 10:22:19 AM

Geppetto
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Powell chimes in and it’s not pretty

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-powell-analysi/w-shaped-recovery-may-be-too-optimistic-feds-powell-suggests-idUSKBN22C1MU

4/30/2020 11:08:50 AM

David0603
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Quote :
"I think this isn't a time you want cash on the sidelines but am happy to hear arguments otherwise."


I still think the market is too high. Not enough to go to cash, but enough that I'm not putting anything extra in to my brokerage account.

4/30/2020 5:41:36 PM

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whats everybody buying?

yesterday i got ZNGA, IBUY (ecommerce etf) and BAC

5/5/2020 12:12:46 PM

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and some LPSN and PYPL

5/5/2020 12:53:41 PM

horosho
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I'm too nervous to buy right now but if I wasn't, I'd be buying CSCO and IPHI

5/5/2020 3:19:41 PM

horosho
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BYND is mooning.

5/6/2020 12:50:50 PM

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LPSN that I bought yesterday is up 37% after earnings

5/6/2020 12:56:25 PM

CaelNCSU
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Bought Lyft PUTs two weeks ago and bought more when it went up. Sold half today to cover my investment, holding the rest through earnings.

My biggest holding is MMS PUTs, they get money from the government to run entitlement programs. They do things like take money and inheritance from foster children so they can give it to the state. My guess is as the bad news of states going broke the bad sentiment will cause a drop in price.

Risky because everything can be propped up by the fed...

5/6/2020 2:36:38 PM

CaelNCSU
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Glad I sold the half for a profit

5/6/2020 4:28:33 PM

David0603
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Quote :
"PYPL"


nice

5/6/2020 6:38:18 PM

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Gonna do some buying in the morning

5/6/2020 8:16:40 PM

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bought some BABA and TSCO

^^ up 13% today!

5/7/2020 12:08:46 PM

The Coz
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Not going to interest this thread much, but I just buy a fixed dollar amount of VTSAX each Monday on autopilot, rain or shine, gloom, doom or boom. Has worked well, and no stress about choices. Was able to maintain through the plummet and partial recovery. Kicked in an additional one-off lump sum near the lows.

5/8/2020 8:48:38 AM

Flyin Ryan
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The stock market has literally become meaningless to determining the country's overall economic health.

5/8/2020 9:18:21 AM

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Become? The market is not the economy. Never has been.

[Edited on May 8, 2020 at 9:26 AM. Reason : Change my mind ]

^^ no I find that interesting. Index funds definitely have their merits

[Edited on May 8, 2020 at 9:29 AM. Reason : ]

5/8/2020 9:26:42 AM

Flyin Ryan
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^ It's used as a surrogate by most everyone, probably due to their 401k's.

5/8/2020 9:30:33 AM

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It is speculative in nature, not a reflection of reality

re: Index funds: https://twitter.com/RampCapitalLLC/status/1258587990168928259?s=19

5/8/2020 10:06:20 AM

HCH
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Quote :
" but I just buy a fixed dollar amount of VTSAX each Monday on autopilot"

Dollar cost averaging is a great way to re-enter the market, while reducing risk. I've been doing the same with VOO.

5/11/2020 9:25:59 AM

horosho
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PFE says they will have a vaccine in September but price hasn't budged.

5/11/2020 1:07:49 PM

darkone
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Ignore any vaccine that hasn't been through Phase 2 trials.

5/11/2020 1:54:28 PM

The Coz
Tempus Fugitive
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^^^
I'm not really re-entering the market. I never got out. I'm just investing in an automated way as I have funds available, and have been for several years. Always buying. Never selling. Yet.

5/11/2020 8:09:44 PM

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What Rona beneficiary stocks haven't reported earnings yet? I guess they're all done now?

LPSN and PYPL have done amazingly well for me in some part based on awesome earnings reports.

5/11/2020 11:12:48 PM

horosho
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My BYND is up 103%

5/12/2020 11:27:09 AM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
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Solid observation:
https://twitter.com/FerroTV/status/1259939391226683398?s=20

Also it looks like GS is betting on a commercial debt going south in the fall.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-11/goldman-backed-firm-to-buy-struggling-commercial-property-debt?sref=sMFMQIFu

My bet is no rebound this year.

5/12/2020 11:50:44 AM

David0603
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How is that different from the junk that was sold during the housing crash?

5/12/2020 1:58:58 PM

Flyin Ryan
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^ I asked about it somewhere else about a month ago. It's not. But the commercial loans were never hit hard by the global financial crisis in comparison to the residential mortgage-based securities.

In comparison, a ton of small businesses are going to close and every mall clothes retailer has either declared bankruptcy or is on the verge of doing so.

[Edited on May 13, 2020 at 11:24 AM. Reason : /]

5/13/2020 11:21:50 AM

NyM410
J-E-T-S
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Wonder if we are seeing a bit of a start of a re-test. It’s just a matter of time. Go big (Mega-Cap) or go home (cash).

[Edited on May 13, 2020 at 1:26 PM. Reason : Broadly speaking l]

5/13/2020 1:26:46 PM

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