Quote :

"Payments to more people -> more competition for basic goods and services -> costs of those goods go up to match demand -> UBI payments cease to yield substantial enough income for those on the lower tier"

UBI or not, we need to produce sufficient basic goods and services to meet the needs of the population. pricing for these basic goods and services is almost entirely a function of the efficiency of our supply chains, production processes and distribution networks. if we're efficiently producing enough of what people need to survive, UBI does NOT cause inflation, especially a UBI that is paid for (for example by a VAT as taxes essentially pull money out of circulation). Same reason nobody talks about minimum wage increases being inflationary. The benefits of UBI for society far outpaces any potential negatives. The Expanded Child Tax Credit of 2021 lifted millions of children out of poverty. Smart investments in our people are good things to do, period. The majority of inflation we've been experiencing is caused by ongoing global supply chain disruptions, increased corporate profits, and yes some via monetary policy over the last 2 years.



this thread isn't about UBI tho. happy to move this conversation to another thread if you like.

I also bumped another thread about 3rd parties to talk about the Forward Party for those who were commenting.

[Edited on July 29, 2022 at 2:36 PM. Reason : y'all can go back to talking about Biden vs Trump/DeSantis here ig]

7/29/2022 2:33:06 PM

I'll address it here and then move to the other thread. After all, TWW is the interwebs and I can't allow for a post to look like it went unanswered.

Quote :

"UBI or not, we need to produce sufficient basic goods and services to meet the needs of the population. pricing for these basic goods and services is almost entirely a function of the efficiency of our supply chains, production processes and distribution networks."

Yes, I agree that major cost inputs are a major factor of pricing. Efficiency is part of it but there are also maximum thresholds for efficiency, based on existing technological states. That's a realistic barrier that can't be ignored. And sure, it improves and as it does total factor productivity moves upwward, often increasing profitability but not necessarily having an impact on prices e.g. record profitability rather than slashing prices. Put differently, TFP impacts economic growth not consumer prices. See historical TFP increases compared to prices of essentially everything over time.

Quote :

"if we're efficiently producing enough of what people need to survive, UBI does NOT cause inflation, especially a UBI that is paid for (for example by a VAT as taxes essentially pull money out of circulation)."

UBI still can, and would likely, cause inflation in this scenario. Unless we're nationalizing production and making sure there are enough goods for everyone, companies are incentivized to maximize profits and will temper supply and raise prices when more individuals demand goods. OPEC could easily release the flood gates on oil right now, but they don't, because low supply + high demand is good for them. This has nothing to do with the efficiency. The VAT example is also flawed. 1) Stimulus checks create demand and can spur inflation. These checks are paid by taxes. It's the same principle here. 2) VAT on goods will increase the price of items, which consumers will view as inflation, even if it isn't technically so.

Quote :

"Same reason nobody talks about minimum wage increases being inflationary."

Except for people do talk about that as a reason to not have an increased national wage or a minimum wage at all. It's spoken less so about minimum wage because it's a few extra dollars per hour and is taxed income, so the impact is pretty small. Recent wage increases in a tight labor market have certainly gotten the lion's share of the inflationary discussion, but people do talk about minimum wage and inflation because it creates more demand for basic services/goods that all people need. Demand that can't readjust overnight and in turn causes inflation.

Quote :

"The benefits of UBI for society far outpaces any potential negatives. The Expanded Child Tax Credit of 2021 lifted millions of children out of poverty. Smart investments in our people are good things to do, period. The majority of inflation we've been experiencing is caused by ongoing global supply chain disruptions, increased corporate profits, and yes some via monetary policy over the last 2 years. "

These things don't go away with UBI; they're exacerbated. I've expressed the impact on corporate profits and monetary policy above.

7/29/2022 4:24:19 PM

So qntm is just going to ignore the fraud allegations about the Green party.

7/29/2022 5:40:10 PM

Greens guilty until proven innocent ITT?

7/29/2022 5:59:39 PM

^^maybe he just doesn’t want to engage in a back and forth with you

7/29/2022 10:42:57 PM

Quote :

"So qntm is just going to ignore the fraud allegations about the Green party. "

consider me baited. I posted in the multi-party thread though.

7/30/2022 2:28:19 PM

Dems lose both House and the Senate
Biden announces he will not run for reelection
DeSantis and Trump continue their passive aggressive shit
Trump picks MTG as a running mate, refuses to debate DeSantis
DeSantis wins the nomination

on the Dem Side
Harris runs, but does poorly.
Newsom wins the nomination

Coin flip on who wins

11/3/2022 12:44:01 PM

Biden doesn't last the full term of presidency.

Kamala becomes President, the right refuses to recognize. Chaos ensues.

11/3/2022 3:20:51 PM

Feels like he can survive two more years.

11/3/2022 6:57:44 PM

Who all want to declare a candidacy to attempt to shield themselves from prosecution and declare any suggestion of it as a politically-motivated witch hunt, say "YEAH!"?

11/4/2022 7:38:15 PM

Quote :

" What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes? If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the Presidential election leaves the Electoral College process and moves to Congress. The House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote and it is up to the individual States to determine how to vote. (Since the District of Columbia is not a State, it has no State delegation in the House and cannot vote). A candidate must receive at least 26 votes (a majority of the States) to be elected. The Senate elects the Vice President from the 2 Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes. Each Senator casts one vote for Vice President. (Since the District of Columbia is has no Senators and is not represented in the vote). A candidate must receive at least 51 votes (a majority of Senators) to be elected. If the House of Representatives fails to elect a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice-President Elect serves as acting President until the deadlock is resolved in the House."

This would be pretty cool. So say in house, still no majority, but somehow senate is 50/50 after 2022. So say Kamala was tie breaker for her own VP? But in house Trump doesn’t get a majority. She’d be acting pres until that decided, and then after house picks some repub candidate, Kamala would be VP?

I mean just trying to think of the most outlier possibility is crazy. I guess if this were to happen, I’d hope it was split congress. Otherwise house will get repub, and senate would be repub. It is only awesome if one house is repub majority and other house is dem

11/5/2022 1:06:44 AM

Nothing seems to unnerve me quite like these segments. A similar one kicked off this thread, but eventually became restricted, this breaking the embed.

I never considered the specific 2024 ticket mentioned herein, but that's pretty horrifying. I'll be going to the polls anyway tomorrow in deep red South Carolina to vote straight blue for all the good that will do.

11/7/2022 6:25:48 AM

So Trump will supposedly announce next week. DeSantis won his election by 20%

These two fighting will be fun. I wonder if anyone else joins in the fun?

11/9/2022 1:01:00 PM

It remains funny that the GOP was hitching its wagon to 1 term president that lost the popular vote and is wildly unpopular.

11/9/2022 2:00:08 PM

Maybe I'll find it funny a decade or more from now. That's not the first descriptor that comes to mind.

11/9/2022 2:39:25 PM

Fair. Funny wasn’t the right word, i admit.

11/9/2022 2:43:09 PM

Curious, perhaps.

11/9/2022 3:10:48 PM

Trump / Desantis ticket would be the logical choice here.

11/9/2022 3:14:47 PM

There's not nearly enough room on the ticket for those two egos.

11/9/2022 3:24:57 PM

Quote :

"I'm really interested in seeing what Trump does to DeSantis in terms of running a dirty campaign. He's sung DeSantis's praises for years now. It will be hard to go back on those praises, but, well, Trump."

It took like ~48 hours.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/11/donald-trump-ron-desantis-truth-social-meltdown

11/11/2022 6:50:26 PM

So if multiple GOP candidates see that Trump looks week, it'll encourage more of them to run, which splits the 'sane' vote and gives Trump a better chance of winning.

11/17/2022 4:57:12 PM

^for primary or general?

I can see desantis/trump along the lines when medvedev had that 4 year stint but vladimir still ran the show. At least more likely than the other way around

I also still think more likely some runaway lib challenges biden and its a 4 way(repub sane, repub crazy, dem sane, dem crazy) and trump wins.

Obviously i want one of the sanes to win

11/17/2022 6:19:08 PM

For the primary.

If Trump appeared unbeatable, I doubt DeSantis would run.

It Trump appeared strong, but beatable, DeSantis may have been the only contender and had people coalesce around him.

If Trump appears weak, which he does, you may have Cheney, DeSantis, Hogan, Cruz, etc all throw their names in the hat. Trump ends up winning the winner take all primaries by getting like 35% of the vote.

11/17/2022 6:58:57 PM

I heard somewhere, I don't remember where. maybe I read it here actually

that the first ever woman president will be made president through succession
and I honestly cant see how the barrier can be broken otherwise given the mindset

I've seen some people online try comparing it to prime ministers but it isn't at all the same thing--being elected by the general populace (or states technically, whatever, it is presented as a popular thing anyways in a lot of respects), is very different than by a bunch of politicians. it is the equivalent of the speaker basically in terms of being elected

might be missing something glaring but just what I reckon off the spot

1/17/2023 1:28:23 PM

For DeSantis/trump I'm not even sure which I'd prefer, it's about the combo of who has the better chance of winning GE, which I kinda think is DeSantis at this point; and which would be more destructive if elected, which I kinda think Trump but could be convinced that competent maliciousness is worse than chaotic maliciousness.

Quote :

"repub sane, repub crazy, dem sane, dem craz"

I think a sane republican has close to zero chance to making a dent in the primary.

I don't know who you consider a crazy dem, but I think Sanders and Warren have shot their shot and missed, they have a higher chance than a sane republican but seems very unlikely.

Seens it would almost def be trump/DeSantis vs Biden or someone like Harris/Newsom/Pete

1/17/2023 4:37:56 PM

DeSantis doesn’t have the charisma it’ll take to win a national election

1/17/2023 6:08:02 PM

Has as much charisma as Biden, or almost anyone else I could see Dems putting up. Never Trumpers could swarm to a "respectable" republican, although Trump die hard could stay home I guess.

Trump will also be 78 by the time the general ramps up.

1/17/2023 7:02:43 PM

you’re letting your dislike of Biden cloud your judgement of Desantis

he’s old, but Biden has charisma. it comes through from time to time.

Desantis is an ivy league dork who will melt as soon as Trump gives him a dumb nickname to his face (I can’t remember who originally made that point, so I’m paraphrasing)

[Edited on January 17, 2023 at 7:42 PM. Reason : .]

1/17/2023 7:41:59 PM

I don't know but if DeSantis wins the primary, i hope you're right!

1/17/2023 9:37:03 PM

time for beto to shine

1/17/2023 9:42:15 PM

For Biden who encapsulates the enemy of my enemy is my friend?

1/19/2023 11:36:19 PM

It's time for Pete (Buttigieg)

I think he'd win against desantis or trump easily

[Edited on January 20, 2023 at 11:57 PM. Reason : ]

1/20/2023 11:56:31 PM

alternatively in the gay caucus I propose Jared Polis

1/21/2023 2:54:55 AM

Haven't been following much of politics/trending for a while, but I opened up the sites and see that desantis banned AP black history

gay black floridians have taken a double whammy

1/21/2023 3:34:36 AM

Tim Scott in the race. I feel like he is the only declared R candidate that I would potentially vote for

5/22/2023 12:37:18 PM

why?

5/22/2023 1:13:25 PM

Because he is black

5/22/2023 1:24:57 PM

He IS black, if that's what you're referring to.

5/22/2023 6:54:29 PM

So...being center-right-ish, and primarily motivated by fiscal responsibility, limited role of government, favorable policies that incentivize success rather than subsidizing failure (albeit somewhat left-leaning on many social issues), I'd love to be able to support a Republican. I'd doubly like to support a Republican that isn't Trump and runs counter to Trump/Trumpism (as opposed to, for example, DeSantis, who seems to be running largely as Trumpism without the Trump).

That said, even if they oppose him now, I don't think I can get past a lot of carrying water for Trump in the past. I mean, it's shades of grey--I'm not saying I'm 100% puritanical about it, and there are bigger pictures to consider. But...even if they distance themselves from him now, or outright denounced him, and even if I suspect they fucking hated him and what he stood for all along...I'm not sure if I can forgive voting against him impeachments/convictions, for example...or certainly not for things like defending him for the Jan 6th stuff or denying election results.

Sen Scott would certainly be better than many Republicans, and I expect I'd prefer a Scott Presidency to a Biden Presidency...but I don't know that I can vote for anyone who kissed Trump's ring. That said, I also doubt I would vote for Biden against any Republican who doesn't represent catastrophe.

5/23/2023 12:04:54 AM

Quote :

"If Trump appears weak, which he does"

I'd characterize Trump more as strong but beatable, at least within the GOP primary, and maybe in the general election. At the very least, I would not go so far as to call him "weak."

Quote :

"that the first ever woman president will be made president through succession and I honestly cant see how the barrier can be broken otherwise given the mindset "

Ehh...I think that HRC, unlikeable as she is, could have totally won in a different election, or even if she just hadn't pulled such a goddamn "I'm the chosen one and I'll do what I want" move with her stupid server and mishandling of classified information (which we now know that every one of those motherfuckers does). I've heard it said that HRC is the only person who could have lost 2016 to Trump, and Trump is the only person who could have beaten her in 2016. That might be a bit of stretch, but there's probably some truth in it.

Quote :

"I think a sane republican has close to zero chance to making a dent in the primary. ...Sanders and Warren have shot their shot and missed, they have a higher chance than a sane republican but seems very unlikely. "

Agreed.

I do think the Democrat Party has lurched more and more left, probably in response to the GOP lurching more and more right, or whatever you want to call what they've done...but the Dems has successfully restrained their batshit wing several times in recent history. The GOP...not so much.

5/23/2023 12:16:13 AM

^fair enough to some of that, but Comeys shit is what ultimately did HRC in.

5/23/2023 1:06:03 AM

I've said it over and over again, you can point to any single factor you want in the 2016 election, say "That's why Clinton lost / Trump won," and be right. The margins were so razor thin in key places that any change at all could have tipped it.

Unless he dies, becomes seriously ill, or voluntarily bows out, Trump will be the nominee. I'm convinced of it. The DeSantis machine is incredibly rigid and unimaginative, and has been laboriously going through the motions of a traditional campaign. The man himself is toxically anti-charismatic. Not just uncharismatic, but anti. People don't like to talk to or be around him. He's been a dead man walking since "Meatball Ron" was coined and will get absolutely annihilated once he's officially going up against DJT. By this time next year he'll be kissing the ring again.

"Good," I say. Trump isn't "weak," but he is just about the only person an 82-year-old Biden can beat. And probably beat pretty handily. I'd prefer to have another option, of course, but Biden is likely to be what we've got and it's not like the Dems have a deep bench. Harris is almost as unpleasant as DeSantis, and her record as VP has been a disaster (though not always through fault of her own). Buttigieg might have the stuff to stand up to Trump in a campaign, but if he starts to show even the slightest cracks I think it's game over. There's some folks who might be able to make waves in 2028 - Wes Moore, if he does OK in Maryland; Tim Walz, if this People's Republic of Minnesota scheme seems to be working out; no doubt others who I'm forgetting. But right now? Uncle Joe it is. And I think Uncle Joe loses to DeSantis purely on the contrast in age and energy.

5/23/2023 8:02:43 AM

Came here To say ^ about trump/desantis/Biden

5/23/2023 7:59:33 PM

Hope you guys are right.

Biden needs a different VP candidate.

5/23/2023 8:12:40 PM

why?

I see a lot of people complaining about Harris without citing any specifics

I think she’s a run-of-the-mill, boring VP, just as Biden is a run-of-the-mill, boring President (in a good way)

I think the combo of Obama and the rise of social media, followed by the insanity of Trump has people expecting more out of the President/VP in the worst way

[Edited on May 23, 2023 at 9:11 PM. Reason : .]

5/23/2023 9:10:11 PM

^^^^ I agree with some of that, but Trump being the nominee is not a good thing. Primarily because anything that increases the odds of him being POTUS again is bad, and partly because we are in big trouble until the GOP flushes Trumpism down the toilet.

5/24/2023 1:43:45 AM

^^ The perception of ineffectiveness and lack of attractiveness to independents. Too many people who can tolerate Biden think he might die in office but are uncomfortable with the prospect of a Harris presidency.

Maybe Cory Booker or Stacey Abrams or something?

5/24/2023 6:41:22 AM

Quote :

"I see a lot of people complaining about Harris without citing any specifics"

Some of it isn't her fault. Biden made her point person on some issues that are more or less impossible to fix, like immigration. Then she immediately did what seemed like the only politically viable thing she could do, which was to tell immigrants "Do not come here." That pissed off everybody who wanted and had been promised a more humane approach to the border. And border crossings went up, which made her look weak and ineffectual to everybody who wanted a harder line.

Also IIRC her staff all hates her and had a lot of turnover, which is something that could be overlooked in a more likeable politician but not in someone deficient in that department. See: Amy Klobuchar. (And before anyone suggests it - I think female candidates may face an uphill battle in this regard but "likeability" isn't code for "woman." DeSantis, and Cruz before him, are black holes of unlikeability, and Elizabeth Warren may have been characterized as a school marm but she was a likeable one)

Quote :

"Trump being the nominee is not a good thing. Primarily because anything that increases the odds of him being POTUS again is bad, and partly because we are in big trouble until the GOP flushes Trumpism down the toilet."

I'd counter that the threat is Trumpism in the White House, not just Trump himself. As you said, DeSantis is offering Trumpism without the Trump. It's not an improvement - and it might be worse. Meatball Ron is probably less erratic, which good, but I also think he has a clearer vision of what he wants to do and how he wants to do it. Given what we've seen of him so far, that's bad. I also think he's more likely to win the general election and less likely to die. Given the choice between Trump and DeSantis, DeSantis is the one who increases the odds of a Trumpist POTUS.

As for the GOP flushing Trumpism, I don't know that it's likely to happen through anything other than grinding demographic change. Eventually a bunch of old Republicans will die. Millennials have shown themselves to be much more durably left-leaning as they age than previous generations. Surviving Republicans will have to adapt to survive.

But in the near-term? Even if they suffer a shattering 2024 defeat, Republicans are stuck with a base that doesn't believe in the outcome of elections. Maybe after another couple of losses they'll quit engaging in the electoral process and join Proud Boys and other militias to try direct action and then the government can shoot them. But for now, the base is there and the politicians will bow to it in order to survive primaries.

5/24/2023 8:22:07 AM

What about the likelihood of Trump / DeSantis ticket?

5/24/2023 9:17:04 AM

Zero. Trump might offer it but I don't think DeSantis would take it. My guess is Trump brings one of the crazier women on board. Kari Lake? Lauren Boebert?

5/24/2023 10:19:02 AM