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 Message Boards » » 2024 General Election Thread Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7], Prev  
The Coz
Tempus Fugitive
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Yeah, go ahead and ink up your Biden pen.

7/20/2023 9:42:32 AM

marko
Tom Joad
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lol man, i haven't seen that many emoji in a TWW post in ages

7/20/2023 12:55:49 PM

GrumpyGOP
yovo yovo bonsoir
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Quote :
"It’s hazardous to use history too much as a template, but I strongly believe the trump wing of the gop is on a quest to setup a white Christian ethnostate by force if needed."


I disagree with this, not because I think the Trump wing is above such awful goals, but because I disagree with the fundamental premise that there is a single animating goal to Trumpism.

Trump himself is motivated entirely by ego. I doubt that he even has many "beliefs," as we understand them, though he may have personal traits that find expression in policy. By that I mean, Trump is an intellectually incurious germaphobic homebody, which manifests itself as xenophobic policy positions without any sort of coherent ideological backing. But virtually everything he does is in service to ego. He said some crap about Obama's birth certificate, people made fun of him for it, so he doubled down, and it spiraled into him running for President. Even now, he's not running again because he wants the job - he famously hates the work involved - but because losing wounded his ego and he must win to heal it. Trump doesn't have some grand vision beyond envisioning himself as grand.

Unfortunately, that ego and the handful of positions called for by his personality made him attractive to the worst kind of people, who began to give him the praise he desired. They also made him a favorite subject of the media, which devoted enormous attention to him. Getting praise and attention for his behavior encouraged more of the same, and a vicious cycle emerged that took us from a sort of goofy moron rambling about birth certificates to a dangerously powerful demagogue defending armed rebels.

But even as we dig into "the worst kind of people," I don't think we'll find all that many with dreams of a white Christian ethnostate. Many of them would be perfectly happy with such an outcome, but it's not what motivates them. There's plenty who are motivated by white supremacist beliefs, misogyny, etc., and many who are just plain corrupt. Many of the politicians, like Mitch McConnell, find Trumpism distasteful but at the moment it is their only hope to put in place judges, districts, laws, etc. which will be necessary for the GOP to be viable in the face of demographic change. But I think for most Trumpists, the animating factor that guides them is a generalized sense of anxiety about a changing world and deep resentment towards those who cause, represent, or benefit from that change. One may look much like the other, but I'd argue there is a crucial difference when it comes to trying to elucidate a "goal" of the Trumpist movement. It's a tale of two racists: one has a white supremacist worldview and goals of implementing a government that reflects that, and the other has come to resent minorities because he thinks they're getting special treatment while he's being ignored. The second guy is an idiot and kind of a piece of shit, but he doesn't have grand dreams of Klantopia. He just has an inflated opinion of himself and what he is due.

So I disagree with this notion of a Trumpist "quest."

7/20/2023 1:14:05 PM

marko
Tom Joad
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The only constant is that their solution to everything is to make others suffer.

7/20/2023 1:41:40 PM

Bullet
All American
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^^Yep, that all makes sense

7/20/2023 1:53:59 PM

theDuke866
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Yeah that’s pretty much my view too.

Plus throw some self-enrichening in there with the ego and self-aggrandizing.

7/20/2023 2:51:57 PM

rjrumfel
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/20/politics/desantis-letter-bud-light-company/index.html

WTF?!

He's wanting legal action against Annheiser-Busch because the state's pension fund lost money?

Crazy town.

The 2024 Republican nomination is just going to be another clown show, unfortunately.

7/21/2023 8:38:09 AM

The Coz
Tempus Fugitive
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Time to pull out all the stops to be top clown.

7/21/2023 9:38:18 AM

moron
All American
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Biden looks to put North Carolina on ’24 map

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/22/bidens-north-carolina-24-00107703

7/22/2023 6:16:48 PM

The Coz
Tempus Fugitive
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Good luck!

7/22/2023 6:59:51 PM

StTexan
The Solution
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I feel like if trump is nominee, it is either haley or scott as vp

8/22/2023 7:24:27 PM

emnsk
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If Trump is the nominee, he would probably get North Carolina.

8/22/2023 11:26:13 PM

StTexan
The Solution
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Nikki haley seems pretty pro choice

8/23/2023 9:44:13 PM

moron
All American
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I’m not watching but are these people saying anything?

8/23/2023 10:23:38 PM

StTexan
The Solution
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She is for supporting ukraine too

8/23/2023 10:26:06 PM

emnsk
All American
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^^^^in context to moron

8/24/2023 1:41:35 AM

Pupils DiL8t
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Vivek seemed to be vying for Trump's VP spot last night.

I was surprised that Mike Pence would still support Donald Trump for president if convicted.

Nearly all of Ron DeSantis's responses reminded me of a petulant teenager stomping their feet.

8/24/2023 8:37:36 AM

synapse
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Quote :
"Nearly all of Ron DeSantis's responses reminded me of a petulant teenager stomping their feet."


every single one. i guess that's what his super PAC told him to do but it didn't work.

8/24/2023 2:33:33 PM

moron
All American
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WaPo poll showing desantis won with a close 2nd for vivek

8/24/2023 3:53:29 PM

moron
All American
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https://www.threads.net/@jancb16/post/CwVsneOAD-J/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

8/24/2023 3:53:54 PM

moron
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Somewhat amusing, the 1 guy actually in jail for the crimes trump orchestrated is the Black guy

https://www.threads.net/@msnbc/post/CwVvqNCRtfT/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

8/24/2023 4:14:33 PM

GrumpyGOP
yovo yovo bonsoir
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I can believe that a certain kind of GOP knuckle-dragger thinks DeSantis won. And for purposes of winning the primary, maybe that works.

But the second he tries to take that cringey nightmare show on the road in purple states trying to woo swing voters, he's fucking done. Fanatical ideologues might be able to ignore his cocaine jaw the palpable waves of misery emanating from his diminutive carcass, and they might even like the convulsions with which he spits out the more extreme talking points. But suburbanites outside of Milwaukee or Philadelphia are gonna be weirded out and revolted by everything he does.

8/24/2023 5:10:00 PM

moron
All American
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^
Agreed. I used to be worried about desantis but there’s no way he wins a general election barring an asteroid or alien invasion wiping out the blue states

Can’t see Vivek getting the nom either, I’m reminded that Herman Cain lead the GOP polls at different points but will be interesting to see how that evolves

Sadly don’t see older swing voters ever voting for ANY brown 30-something against one of their own old white people like Biden.

8/24/2023 6:04:40 PM

theDuke866
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I didn't watch the debate, because anyone who won't unequivocally denounce Trump and Trumpism and refuse to support him is a non-starter in my book. That narrows it down to Hutchinson and Christie, and I pretty much could have told you that before the debate. Maaaaaaaaybe Pence would have joined that group, but I figured he would be in the "try-to-have-it-both-ways camp."

So, basically, I'm going to vote for Christie or Hutchinson (or even less likely, Doug Burgum or Will Hurd) if, by some struck-by-lightning miracle one of them wins the nomination AND doesn't say or do anything else to become an absolute non-starter under any circumstances.

Barring that, it will be a choice between stifling the vomit and voting for Biden again or just abstaining from the POTUS race, depending on who the GOP nomination is. Trump? I'm voting Biden. DeSantis, I won't 100% commit just yet, but probably voting Biden. Haley or Tim Scott? I'd probably just sit out.



So, all that said--reiterating the caveat that I didn't watch any of the debate--I would tend to agree that DeSantis will play pretty poorly outside of a GOP primary. On the other hand, President Biden is really weak as a candidate. He's older than dirt, a terrible orator, and very unpopular across the broader electorate. Cherry on top, he doesn't motivate the Dem base much either. A lot of people could be "weirded out" by DeSantis and he might still be a contender. At a minimum he would be a threat. I think it's a super-narrow pathway, but I suppose DeSantis could aim to be enough of a fuckup to win the GOP nomination if he can unseat Trump, and just barely not so fucked-up that he could stumble his way to narrow victory against a feeble (D) candidate.

I personally don't understand why he wouldn't just bide his time for 4 years, let President Biden, the criminal justice system, and age finish off Trump for good, not have to sell out to MAGAism quite so completely, and just re-attack in 2028 after keeping the irons hot during that time as a pretty popular governor of an influential state. He might have to deal with a stronger (D) candidate then, but especially after 8 preceding years of (D) rule, I think his odds would be dramatically higher.

[Edited on August 24, 2023 at 6:10 PM. Reason : ]

8/24/2023 6:10:40 PM

emnsk
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Vivek's problem is that he doesn't act presidential, just your conservative commentator type tone. But I guess that's what he intends, given what he is vying for.

Pence makes me laugh every time he speaks cause I think of video game presidents. I think he did hit a certain segment though, and to be honest he was the only one who knew what to do with his hand gestures, but I will again defer to the first line of this paragraph

Christie is funny, he seems like he'd be an evil boss in Super Mario for some reason that turns around and helps them someone while still looking dumb

Asa looks like he meant to run 10 years ago

DeSantis saying "I got no beef" made me LOL, but the dude didn't really do much. Just looked like a fish out of water for a bit.

Tim Scott isn't getting anywhere, but he seemed like the 'reasonable' dude packed in with the bunch. just doesn't stand out or have that edge, be it charisma, or the 'conservative ideologue' type

Nikki Haley did well for what her position is, she used her being a woman well, I didn't really like the whole shouting with Vivek about the foreign aid, but otherwise she did her part well I think

The eyebrow dude honestly wasn't bad, seemed kinda to the point with his 'to the states' mindset, and moderate otherwise as I recall, but me calling him the eyebrow dude says what it needs to about the candidacy

Honestly, without Trump properly getting convicted, I don't see anyone else winning the primary, and I don't see a stand out guy who can come over the blight of Trump getting convicted even if they get the nomination over him after that whole cycle.

The reckoning is coming for the Republican Party

Also, where was RFK Jr.?
His tweet about the republican debate was good though

[Edited on August 24, 2023 at 9:15 PM. Reason : --]

8/24/2023 9:10:12 PM

The Coz
Tempus Fugitive
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It's called an 'X'

8/24/2023 9:31:12 PM

emnsk
All American
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it's called a 'post' now actually

rather dry, I would've preferred ex


[Edited on August 24, 2023 at 9:48 PM. Reason : --]

8/24/2023 9:48:11 PM

theDuke866
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Quote :
"Honestly, without Trump properly getting convicted, I don't see anyone else winning the primary"


I wouldn't bet against Trump winning the GOP nomination from a prison cell.

8/24/2023 11:00:08 PM

synapse
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Quote :
"Cherry on top, he doesn't motivate the Dem base much either."


Agreed, but abortion does tho.

8/24/2023 11:20:37 PM

emnsk
All American
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^^

True. but maybe the delegates will take it on their own
but as said earlier, huge blight

8/24/2023 11:23:57 PM

moron
All American
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republican-debate-august-poll/

Interestingly trump lost the most support post debate and Nikki got the biggest boost.

8/25/2023 9:18:22 PM

moron
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https://www.huffpost.com/entry/george-stephanopoulos-responds-trump-biden-poll_n_64f56319e4b0d44852ed49ee

This poll is really wild

Either WSJ messed up big time in conducting the poll, or the average American on the street has completely lost their minds.

https://www.threads.net/@andykaczynski/post/CwxZWh_LPxM/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

[Edited on September 4, 2023 at 9:59 AM. Reason : ]

9/4/2023 9:59:07 AM

emnsk
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seems about right to me for the current moment

as the case progresses

[Edited on September 4, 2023 at 9:58 PM. Reason : -]

9/4/2023 9:58:00 PM

Pupils DiL8t
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It really is a bizarre poll: https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Poll_Aug_2023.pdf

I found it's lack of breaking down poll responses by party affiliation other than those from Republican primary voters to be unhelpful.

However, question 92 on page 56 is insightful:

Quote :
"Q.92 Would you say you are a Liberal, Moderate or a Conservative in your political beliefs?

Very liberal............................................................................12
Somewhat liberal ..................................................................15
Moderate...............................................................................29
Somewhat conservative........................................................24
Very conservative .................................................................17
(Don't Know/Refused)............................................................4

Total Liberal ........................................................................27
Total Conservative..............................................................40"

9/5/2023 1:17:58 PM

rwoody
Save TWW
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Say what you will about the Nates, but silver did a food job of aggregating and rating polls (rip 538) and Cohn does alot of work on analyzing indivual polls and whether they normalize for things like party affiliation.

9/5/2023 1:39:52 PM

The Coz
Tempus Fugitive
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Indivual!

9/5/2023 2:04:21 PM

rwoody
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You should have paid more attn to "food" but whatever, it's tww and in this case the meaning of the post is clear

9/5/2023 2:21:59 PM

The Coz
Tempus Fugitive
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Quote :
"it's tww"

Exactly!

9/5/2023 7:35:19 PM

rwoody
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Thread/article
Quote :
"Trump's Electoral College edge seems to have faded. "

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1701214068650983492

9/11/2023 9:44:26 AM

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