^^ isnt that about 2008 primary levels with obama?

3/5/2020 9:15:04 AM

Here's a pew research article from 2008. Looks like they used NBC exit polls but arrived at a similar result.

https://www.pewresearch.org/2008/02/11/young-voters-in-the-2008-presidential-primaries/

Looks like through Tuesday in 2008, 18-29 year olds had a median turnout across all states at 14%.

I don't think we have a breakdown to this degree yet for the 2020 data, but i'd imagine it would look similarly to the 2008 results.

[Edited on March 5, 2020 at 9:42 AM. Reason : .]

3/5/2020 9:35:54 AM

Fox is now using an alzheimers attack in Biden, my question for Biden voters is what is the best response to that, showing Trump also losing his mind?

[Edited on March 5, 2020 at 9:59 AM. Reason : ?]

3/5/2020 9:59:33 AM

^Not a Biden voter, but I'm not sure:

When Biden shows signs of dementia, it's a concern over his electability.

When Trump shows it, they're just pwning the libs.

3/5/2020 10:02:29 AM

^^^ i thought it was a similar amount but wasnt sure, and I remember news stories from 2008 about record youth turnout

[Edited on March 5, 2020 at 10:03 AM. Reason : .]

3/5/2020 10:03:35 AM

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1235581336414371840?s=21

Rough. But not too unexpected given Florida was always going to be tough.

Realistically what’s the path for Bernie? Is there one? Clearly has to win Ohio and Pa pretty big and then shut Biden out of states like WA and OR?

3/5/2020 10:19:59 AM

its over

3/5/2020 10:21:06 AM

^ Yeah. Seems like the focus has shifted to November based on what I'm reading Trump supporters saying. They're not getting their dream matchup of Sanders winning the Democratic nod and have started reamping the Biden attacks.

I'm really interested in VP selections at this point. As for either Trump, Biden, or Sanders there's a much higher than normal chance that person would ascend to the presidency. I half-think Trump is having a contested VP nomination fight between Pence and Haley because that's the most Trump thing ever. If I were in the Sanders strategy room if Sanders decides he's not winning, I would be making damn sure all my delegates support a strong left VP choice incase it becomes necessary during Biden's term in the event Biden wins. The VP choice can't be Sanders, but he needs to anoint someone behind closed doors and almost force the person on Biden in the name of party unity, or take it all the way to a floor fight. There's no such thing as binding on a VP vote.

[Edited on March 5, 2020 at 10:40 AM. Reason : /]

3/5/2020 10:30:45 AM

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1235590398648582146?s=21

FWIW.

Wouldn’t surprise me if she suspends her campaign today.

[Edited on March 5, 2020 at 10:41 AM. Reason : NYT confirms. She’s out.]

3/5/2020 10:40:42 AM

GNSP

3/5/2020 10:47:34 AM

She has a plan for that.

3/5/2020 10:49:17 AM

Some of what @Big4Country said is true that the left and democratic party as a whole need to accept it, but the bulk of it is something the right really needs to move past if we're ever going to be able to do anything for the bulk of the social classes in the US.

Quote :

"People have to get past wage envy and do something for themselves. No government program is going to raise someone a social class."

This part is true. There are individuals who believe, some because of wishful thinking and some because it's what politicians and groups they support have fed them, that people with more money than them largely do not deserve it and that if they were to be provided with xyz, then their lives would magically be better. Social programs can even the playing field but they are not a panacea. There are other changes individuals should expect to make in their lives and they should also understand that people will always have more money than them. Focusing on what other people have is not the best way to move one's life forward.

Quote :

" minimum wage will just make automation move ahead quicker and make everything more expensive...get a bump to $15 hr then all of those techs with experience ... require a pay increase to say $20 hr ... which means the cost per labor hr charged to the customer will have to go up to cover the higher wages...Burger King employees will now have to pay more for car service and auto parts"

There is some truth here, but this comment is largely over inflated. Yes, there will be some increases in cost and, yes, much of that will be passed along to the consumer. Likewise, companies understanding price elasticity, will recognize they can't pass all the costs along and will likely not increase wages accordingly for those with x years experience. Likewise, they will also they a hit on pay. But the added costs for those new $15 employees, which is only a fraction of their overall employees and overall costs, will be spread across the number of people seeking out the services of those employees. As such, overall increased costs will be noticeable but not enough to erode the value of 2x in income. Those people with now double the income 1) can now spend more in the economy, which drives a need for more goods and services, which means more jobs etc. Plus, 2) they would require less government subsistence (albeit only some), which is a good nationwide benefit as well, regardless of the amount.

The theory that asking any company to pay more in tax or wages will immediately result in 100% of costs passed along to the consumer is a fallacy not supported by any form of economic theory. Basically, to use Laffer curve logic (dubious I know) there are multiple price points where companies have no revenue- at free they have customers but make no money, at an insanely high price point they can make margin but have no customers. Companies are smart enough to stay in between.


Speaking of Laffer

Quote :

" Why would you want to tax yourself to death? Why would you want to pay college tuition forever even if you never went to college? "

No one wants to tax themselves to death and there is a point where increased taxation minimizes desire to do more as the marginal reward for your efforts/time/responsibility level reduce. In general, we should pay attention and try not to over tax, but I'm not convinced $15 minimum wage will do that. Free college wouldn't even necessarily. Just like any household, we have multiple expenditures and we can afford what we want if we cut elsewhere. No single program increases taxes, it's the whole of what we offer.

Quote :

"A $15 minimum wage doesn't do anything except increase costs and push automation ahead quicker "

There is some truth here. As capital and labor reach equilibrium, there will be labor pushed out. $15 for fast food may be a threshold in which that could happen. So, yes, some laborers will make $15 but some people will not have jobs as a result. Better rarely means barely for everyone.

3/5/2020 10:59:44 AM

What a pointless week for Warren

3/5/2020 11:05:46 AM

^ To be fair, I don't think anyone on February 27th expected what would happen in the next week.

3/5/2020 11:16:24 AM

It was plainly obvious that Warren had no path forward.

The only way progressives have any sort of chance at this point is for her to endorse and somehow consolidate people who ditched for Biden because of electability concerns. National polling is still not that bad.

3/5/2020 11:19:46 AM

She raised $29M in February, she had campaign staff in every Super Tuesday state, and polling in SC underestimated Biden support by 20+ points.

She had every right to see how Super Tuesday would shake out and if she might also buck the polling in some states.

It just didn’t materialize for her at all. Luckily, I don’t think this is the last we will hear from her this election.

3/5/2020 11:31:26 AM

Shes assessing who she wants to endorse, lets see what happens. Prolonged waffling without an endorsement is bad, it either needs to be a quick endorsement for Sanders or a quick statement that she wont endorse anyone (which is lame, but not as bad as nothing or endorsing biden)

3/5/2020 11:32:14 AM

Roger Lau, her campaign manager, released a statement yesterday. They were certainly very very disappointed.
https://medium.com/@teamwarren/next-steps-bfa8482e2fbc

3/5/2020 11:38:57 AM

^^ she raised that money via Super Pac donations, even though she had no real path to victory. The donations came in ri^ght as the moderates were dropping out to consolidate around Biden. Do the math.

I know a lot of progressives are holding or hope that she'll endorse Bernie, but I'd be shocked (pleasantly shocked, but shocked nonetheless) if she did. If I had to guess, I'd say she'll likely hedge (because she always does, just like she did in 2016 by waiting to back Hillary instead of running when she had her chance) and wait to the convention. Or she'll come out and endorse Biden, and we'll eventually learn where all that SuperPac money came from.

It's a real shame if this happens.

[Edited on March 5, 2020 at 11:55 AM. Reason : ]

3/5/2020 11:53:48 AM

I'm not holding out too much hope after the way the last couple months went.

3/5/2020 12:00:21 PM

Not that it matters, but none of that $29M was SuperPAC money, that was direct donations to the campaign.

The PAC that was supporting her spent like an additional $15M around that same time.

3/5/2020 12:12:33 PM

Quote :

" The donations came in ri^ght as the moderates were dropping out to consolidate around Biden. Do the math."

they came in right before the biggest primary day in the country

3/5/2020 12:17:38 PM

^^
Yeah I thought that was the case at first, but they wouldn't have announced $29 million in a campaign memo if it were.

[Edited on March 5, 2020 at 12:18 PM. Reason : .]

3/5/2020 12:18:03 PM

Quote :

"they came in right before the biggest primary day in the country"

Do.....do you think that was a coincidence? She had no viable path prior to Super Tuesday and polling (and her internal polling) showed that. So why would she get so much PAC money (I don't know the exact number as TFerguson just noted) if she had no realistic shot? Why would PAC donors waste their investment like that?

Because it wasn't a wasted investment. It did (and is likely still doing) exactly what was intended. Who benefits from this? She got played. Either wittingly or unwittingly.. The difference doesn't really matter.

3/5/2020 12:33:43 PM

I don’t think there’s any conspiracy in her supporters donating for one last push to try and get her through on Super Tuesday

it’s pretty apparent that it was their hail mary

3/5/2020 12:39:25 PM

I'm not talking about her small donor supporters.

3/5/2020 12:48:10 PM

Quote :

" dms i shouldn't have posted that, I worded it incorrectly. It's from an NBC exit poll. They claim "13% of all voters on super Tuesday were between ages of 18-29.""

I gotcha, I had seen that tweet too and wasn’t sure what to make of it. 13% is not good. But the tweet offered little context, so that’s why I was wondering if there was a more detailed source.

For some context, i did find this stat

Quote :

" Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump."

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html

So the 13% would be a massive decline. But I’m still waiting to see what the final numbers overall are (not just exit polling). I need more context, that’s all. I wasn’t trying to call you out, I’m just genuinely curious about it.

Im also curious why these age breakdowns are what they are:

Quote :

" 18-29: 13% 30-44: 23% 45-64: 35% 65+: 29%"

(That’s from NBC exit polling). Why are we considering 18-29 and 45-64 age ranges an apples to apples comparison? Are those age ranges similar population sizes? None of this is about me questioning the narrative of why Bernie had disappointing results Tuesday. I’m just curious from a statistical POV, that’s all.

[Edited on March 5, 2020 at 1:05 PM. Reason : A]

3/5/2020 12:59:58 PM

The support for Warren is real. I work in that demographic and they have been insufferable all week. People with advanced degrees and excellent healthcare, and six figure incomes complaining about how Warren is the best, smartest candidate of all time but sexism is the only thing holding her back. They had an article going around sunday and monday about why Warren supporters still need to vote for Warren. They are now coming to terms with Biden being the nominee and are saying things like "Well i guess i'll vote for biden now to make sure we get rid of trump". Bernie was never an option for these types.

I never confront them because I don't want to be toxic at work but my other leftist coworker and I have been secretly talking shit all week.

3/5/2020 1:23:29 PM

Hearing about a Warren office phone banking for Newman today since they were all setup already reminds me of the great work she did to support down ballot races. She really kickstarted Cisneros into the national conversation and that race was super close.

3/5/2020 1:49:54 PM

Quote :

"The support for Warren is real. I work in that demographic and they have been insufferable all week. People with advanced degrees and excellent healthcare, and six figure incomes complaining about how Warren is the best, smartest candidate of all time but sexism is the only thing holding her back. They had an article going around sunday and monday about why Warren supporters still need to vote for Warren. They are now coming to terms with Biden being the nominee and are saying things like "Well i guess i'll vote for biden now to make sure we get rid of trump". Bernie was never an option for these types."

The only delegates she won in North Carolina was in David Price's district. And she won 2 there. That district was 25% of her total vote in the state.

In comparison, she got all of 5% in Cumberland County (Fayetteville).

3/5/2020 1:55:52 PM

Quote :

"but sexism is the only thing holding her back"

Tulsi is still in the field.

3/5/2020 2:02:26 PM

She attracts a lot of white upper middle class liberals with progressive social values (bourgeois white feminism). A lot (not all) of those people are professional managerial class types, so their relative economic stability makes them hesitant to make the jump to Bernie because it would jeopardize their stability. They "in theory" support his policies but often look for an excuse to dismiss him (his supporters are mean, he's an old man, he's not electable, he's not a real Democrat, we need to support the party, we can't do that right now, etc). I imagine those who are more progressive in her camp have already made the jump or will make the jump soon to Bernie. The holdouts who are remaining are going vote Biden.

3/5/2020 2:13:28 PM

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michelatindera/2020/03/02/biden-no-longer-competing-with-buttigieg-now-has-most-billionaire-donors-by-far

Bernie <3

3/5/2020 2:46:13 PM

Quote :

"With Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s departure from the race. Rep. @TulsiGabbard is the last woman, person of color and veteran running for President as a Democrat."

Also she's under 40.

3/5/2020 2:57:11 PM

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/pelosi-says-element-of-misogyny-in-race-as-warren-becomes-latest-female-candidate-to-bow-out/ar-BB10NK5C?ocid=ientp

Quote :

""I do think that there's a certain element of misogyny that is there. And some of it isn't really mean-spirited, it just isn't their experience," Pelosi said. She claimed that some people have "their own insecurities" that prevent them from voting for a woman."

Bunch of thought criminal sexists in this thread that don't think women can be leaders.

This statement so exemplifies what I hate about the modern Democratic Party. If I have a vote between a white man and a black man and I vote for the white man, that does not make me racist. If I have a vote between a man and a woman and I vote for the man, that does not make misogynist. It's how you assign the race or the genitalia or what school someone graduated from as being more important than the ideas and beliefs of the person they actually fucking stand for.

They tried to pull this shit with Hillary in the primary 4 years ago too. Feminists were confounded on trying to explain how young women could support Sanders over Hillary.

(By the way, Pelosi completely ignoring that Gabbard exists. Only discussing Warren and Klobuchar.)

[Edited on March 5, 2020 at 4:20 PM. Reason : /]

3/5/2020 4:10:46 PM

Tulsi was literally out a long time ago already. She just doesn't want to be ignored.

3/5/2020 4:29:27 PM

Sexism is not the sole reason woman candidates don't succeed but it's actually a factor. Warren had far more media stories about "like ability" and "electability" early in the race.

Also in some cases women won't vote for women in a primary bc they are afraid people won't support a woman in the general.

3/5/2020 4:30:00 PM

Voting for a white man over a black man doesn't make you a racist, and voting for a man over a woman doesn't make you a misogynist; that being said, there are still a lot of people voting for white men over black men because they're racists and voting for men over women because they're misogynists.

3/5/2020 4:31:51 PM

So let's assign percentages. How many Biden and Sanders supporters are misogynistic for not backing Warren? How much of the Democratic primary electorate are racists because Booker, Harris, etc. found zero support in polls?

3/5/2020 9:00:59 PM

I hope someone can debunk this...

Quote :

"The official vote counts from the Massachusetts Democratic primary differed significantly from the exit poll Sanders won in the exit poll and lost in the computer count Discrepancies between Sanders and Biden totaled 8.2%— double the 4.0% margin of error "

https://twitter.com/BenjaminNorton/status/1235578625027698691
http://tdmsresearch.com/2020/03/04/massachusetts-2020-democratic-party-primary/

Quote :

"The computerized vote counts from the South Carolina Democratic primary also differed significantly from the exit poll, yet again greatly exceeding its margin of error Biden’s vote count exhibited the largest increase (+8.3%) from his exit poll projection http://tdmsresearch.com/2020/03/02/south-carolina-2020-democratic-party-primary/"

Quote :

"Noticing a pattern here: The New Hampshire Democratic primary computerized vote count results also greatly exceeded the exit poll margin of error Buttigieg’s official unverified computer-generated vote totals represented a 12% increase from the exit poll http://tdmsresearch.com/2020/02/17/new-hampshire-2020-democratic-party-primary-exit-poll-versus-reported-vote-count/"

3/5/2020 9:51:56 PM

Exit polls not being very good isnt a conspiracy

3/6/2020 12:03:53 AM

Lots of horse trading going on now with the Warren endorsement, but we all know who has the most horses to trade and thus where her endorsement is going.

[Edited on March 6, 2020 at 12:25 AM. Reason : Gross but a reality ]

3/6/2020 12:25:26 AM

dms - all good. I guess there's several ways to quantify young voter turnout (raw % of voters vs % of eligible voters who did turnout) and I assume the pew vs census articles are using those interchangably. I can't imagine why there would be a >20% drop from 2018 to 2020, other than that voting block knows they would vote blue no matter what.

Last comment on youth turnout, here's an article talking about how the youth vote has changed from 2016 to 2020.

https://www.businessinsider.com/bernie-sanders-admits-hes-not-inspiring-enough-young-voters-2020-3?utm_source=reddit.com

Quote :

"In Virginia, where Biden clobbered Sanders by almost 30 points, turnout surged from 800,000 in 2016 to 1.3 million on Tuesday, but the portion of the electorate made up of 17-29 year-old voters actually declined. And Sanders won 55% of Virginia's young voters this year — down from 69% in 2016. A similar phenomenon played out in North Carolina, another crucial swing state, where 17-29 year-old voters declined as a share of the electorate and their support for Sanders dropped from 69% to 57%."

Not sure what to make of that, I thought Clinton vs Sanders and Biden vs Sanders would have similar splits.

[Edited on March 6, 2020 at 7:58 AM. Reason : .]

3/6/2020 7:58:22 AM

youre surprised young voters are losing enthusiasm and older ones desire to cling to power / the good ol days?

3/6/2020 8:17:19 AM

NC isnt a good state to compare because of the date change

3/6/2020 9:10:13 AM

JFC, fascists are literally bringing nazi flags to Bernie’s rallies. If that’s any indication of how important it is to stamp out Trumpism, I don’t know what is.

And props to the Bernie fan who absolutely pummeled the dude and took the flag. Hero.

3/6/2020 9:12:48 AM

Bernie Sanders / his supporters are being blamed om Twitter for that nazi

[Edited on March 6, 2020 at 9:15 AM. Reason : .]

3/6/2020 9:15:01 AM

Quote :

"So let's assign percentages."

Sure thing. I'll go pull the polling numbers of all of the self-described racists and misogynists and get right back to you.

3/6/2020 9:40:07 AM

Trump has attacked Biden for having alzheimers and now he's attacking saying Biden wants to cut social security

3/6/2020 10:30:40 AM

No ones asking if Bernie is losing because of antisemitism

Quote :

"Exit polls not being very good isnt a conspiracy"

OK So is the explanation that 8% of the electorate voted for Biden and then walked outside and said they voted for Bernie and found socialism favorable?

[Edited on March 6, 2020 at 11:14 AM. Reason : a lot of people are citing the same exit polls for how bernie is struggling with some demographics]

[Edited on March 6, 2020 at 11:18 AM. Reason : funny how that works]

3/6/2020 11:12:57 AM